So its a week early but it feels like this is a good time to revisit our preseason win prediction thread. I crunched the numbers and came up with fanbase stats. Just to let everyone know. I rounded the range predictions accordingly. For example, if someone said 7-9 wins that counted as 8. If someone said 7-8 wins I gave them the benefit of the doubt and rounded down to 7, since you know, Jets, and people being hopeful. I also threw out three sarcastic predictions that were 17-0, and 0-17. The final result is our overall fanbase expected 6.5 wins. (6-7 average) So as a group we fell about two and a half wins short of our expectations. Here is the win predictions by number of posters predicting them: 10 wins - 2 9 wins - 5 8 wins - 8 7 wins - 7 6 wins - 4 5 wins - 8 4 wins - 2 3 wins - 2 Here is the original thread: https://forums.theganggreen.com/thr...1-new-york-jets-schedule-record-thread.96138/ (Edit - I also threw out DWC's 13 win prediction)
Nice job, I do not recall if i made a prediction... I think I just wanted the.nm to be better each week and be competitive by the end of the season.
So, using your numbers, and considering Sunday's game to be a loss in Buffalo, over 89% of posters overestimated the Jets capabilities with the average estimate of wins 62.5% too high. Mea culpa - I must admit that I was one of those 89% and overestimated the Jets' success rate by 25%. I shall endeavor to be more grounded in reality next year and not get caught up in the irrational exuberance that flows here like water over Niagara Falls. Congratulations to Jetaho who appears to be the only member who predicted 4 - 13 without any hedging or conditions.
I think I said 7 to 9 wins. I was overly optimistic. If they had a normal level of injuries, I think they would have had a good chance to make it to 7 wins.
Don't forget that the Jets had an unusually high level of injuries this season. You can't predict that.
Everyone does, dude. I don’t think the Jets situation was unusually high, it’s just the way it goes for half the teams in the league. Unsurprising that the Jet fan is much more optimistic about things after what most felt was a good off-season. I’ve felt the Jets were 7-9 win teams for the better half of the past decade. And here we are.
Don't think I put my prediction down but 5-7 wins was my mark. I do think injuries have played a part. The numbers may not be much different to anyone else but if you'd told me that Lawson wouldn't play at all and that Maye would miss half a season and Joyner and Becton both barely feature then I'd probably have revised that down a notch.
Yikes, I had 8-9. I thought for sure we'd have beaten Atlanta and split with Miami which would've given us 6 wins. Also had Carolina and Denver in there as wins.
I said 8-9 if everything goes right and no major injuries. Oh well, maybe I cursed them with that statement. I'm disappointed and frustrated, but remain a little optimistic based on how Zach has come on, how the OL has improved despite missing Becton, Berrios's play, the performance of rookies like Carter, Moore, and AVT, and how LaFleur has improved from the beginning. There's still a lot of holes, but another good draft like last year's, and I'm hoping for a better FA than Douglas has had so far, and 8-9 would be where I expect them to be next year.
The Jets led the league in players placed on IR including arguably our 3 best players in Lawson, Becton and Maye. We played more 1st and 2 year players than any other team. Our rookie QB according to PFF played the most difficult schedule of any QB in the league while for the most part lacking an OL, weapons and a viable defense. I would argue given all the bad circumstances that we are pretty lucky to have won 4 games.
You are right, as a group we were more optimistic than 4 games, though not my much. I think there are a few things we did not foresee in that 6.5 prediction: - Defense being worst on NFL by far. I don't think anyone predicted that. Big part of the blame is Ulbrich, and also it looks like all the best guys, pretty much every expensive FA got hurt for all or most of the season. Injuries were expected, but not to that extent. - WR corps severely underperformed, which was critical when you have a rookie QB. Both ability and availability were beyond what anyone could have expected. Expected top two guys (Davis and Mims) greatly underachieved, another FA Coles underachieved, Moore flashed, but was injured a lot. No one expected Berrios as WR #1, and Smith, Montgomery playing major minutes. I think that was huge. - As a group we underestimated impact of so many rookies: not just players, but also HC, OC, DC. It was learning on the job for them too. - Greg Knapp's passing. That I feel had a HUGE impact on Zach's development. Finally I think it was remediated by hiring John Beck.
I did a double take on the thread title. My first thought was who gives a rat's ass about preseason games, ha.
Interesting. Not sure whether that means the team performed below reasonable expectations or people on this board had unreasonable expectations. While I think everyone knew that a rookie HC/OC/QB/etc. would create challenges, I think most on the board underestimated just how big of an impact that would have and were therefore unrealistically optimistic. As for injuries: They happen to every team, but the Jets were snakebit in terms of just how often the injuries hit the star veterans. Lawson was the best player on the team, and we lost our best player for the entire season. How many teams experienced that this year? I haven't looked, but I suspect it's a lot fewer than half. I would be curious to see an analysis of how many teams played how many games without players who were considered the top 5 players on the team during pre-season. I'm not curious enough to do the research myself, but I suspect the Jets were particularly unlucky from that perspective.
You can predict injuries - they are a given. What you can't predict is who, when and for how long. Watching for years and a realistic approach can get you closer than ignoring the possibilities and wishing and hoping that evrything will be just fine.
Well DWC got vindicated by this seasons results Defense wins championships and we didn't have any at all.
Jets fans tend to be over-optimistic because the Jets market so heavily in that direction. Overpromising and underdelivering is like an organizational strategy at this point. You can do that until the wheels totally fall off and then suddenly you have nowhere to go. If you do the usual and overpromise people just laugh at the marketing. If you do the normal thing of underpromising and trying to overdeliver? Well, how do you underpromise from a 2-5 win base? People just laugh at you again and consider your efforts to be total incompetence.
Agree with pretty much all of this… injuries happen to all teams, sure, but we lost a lot of key players. We got pretty much zero out of our starting LT, and exactly zero out of our best pass rusher, which is critical to all defenses but especially so ours. Average corners can do well with a strong pass rush…not as good with no pass rush. We also lost both starting safeties, one of them early, and a bunch of LBs. Lost a lot at receiver and RB as well that being said…I know we all bang on Ulbrich, but I think we also have to step back and really look at what he’s playing with. We’ve got late round picks and low free agents all over the place…including DB, LB, and pass rush. We had rookie safeties playing LB, for fucks sake. We’ve lost how many safeties to injury? We lost Lawson all year, and Huff for at least half a year. It’s really pathetic considering how many high top ten picks we’ve wasted on D over the last ten years, but outside of Mosley and Q, it’s not like we have a lot of great natural talent out on D. We have some decent players like JFM, I think I Hall is up and coming and will be very good, and Echols has shown flashed too….but our front seven needs a lot of help, as do our safeties. Ironic that going into the season corner was looked at as a liability, but the kids have held up pretty well I think. anyway, my point is that while Ulbrich hasn’t done well by any stretch, I’m not sure how much better someone else could’ve done with the players we had on the field…I fully believe that someone like a Parcells or Belichick for sure would have shown better, but outside of a few legendary type coaches, I’m thinking this defense would have sucked regardless… will be interesting to see what happens this offseason at DC
I called for 6 wins. Uggg. Maybe after the Bills game I'm only off by 1. And damn we had the Bucs beat!
Well, last year Gregg Williams did better than Ulbrich this year, and he is no Belichick. He also didn't have Lawson, and didn't have Mosley either, though Maye was there for longer than he was this season. Overall I think it is fair to say talent defensively is the same this year as it was last year. More rookies, true, but still, it's not like we had some stars on that defense last year that we lost. Ulbrich definitely underachieved, even compared to Gregg Williams, there is no doubt about that, and Gregg is not even in NFL now. There reason why we won twice as many games this year is not defense but offense, because Saleh, and more so Mike since Gase was essentially an OC, was a significant upgrade over Gase. Talent wise even offense is similar to last year. Davis underperformed and played like Perriman. We lost Becton and gained AVT. Zach was a rookie QB and struggled earlier, while Sam sucked, but was a vet. Moore took time to develop and then missed games, same with MC. But Mike clearly outperformed Gase, while Ulhbrich did worse than Gregg.
Brad. This is kind of silly. What NFL franchise doesn’t market as if they’re going to have a successful season? It’s not like baseball where the Pirates are pretty much open about the team sucking and it being a 3-4 year rebuild or hockey where the trade deadline indicates a rebuild. Every franchise puts out shit like their teams going to be great.
