1. Greg Robinson - Lots of potential, but far from a finished product. It could turn ugly if he is expected to start as LT for a bad team next season. 2. Anthony Barr - Looks soft. 3. Aaron Donald - He's undersized, yet some have him going as high as #5 to Oakland. 4. Marqise Lee - Had awful hands and ball catching technique last season. 5. Jace Amaro - Haven't seen him high-point balls. Jeff Cumberland in an air-raid.
I can't speak for others, but I put him on the list because I think he will. If you look at film on him, on something like 85-90% of his receptions came within 3-5 yards of the LOS and he was never covered. His number of receptions is due to the spread offense they ran. He doesn't pass the eye test with me. He doesn't look smooth, he looks stiff and not very athletic. He isn't much of a blocker. I simply don't think he will be all that effective in the NFL.
What does bust mean though? I think there's a pretty good chance that Kelvin Benjamin turns out to be a somewhat stiff player capable of making highlight reel catches now and then and that he winds up with 450 catches in a 7 or 8 year career. His big issues are hands and concentration or some combination thereof and the fact that he's not a particularly polished route runner and may well not be that well suited for some of the things a good NFL receiver has to do in a pro offense. So you take Kelvin Benjamin on the 14 pick and he produces that for you, let's say 4 years and 200 catches before you have to let him go in free agency because he wants the market price for a WR in free agency and you'd rather give him a contract commensurate with his contributions which would be about two-thirds that amount. Is that a bust or just a pick that didn't work out the way you wanted it to go? If he did that for the Jets, let's say he's there on 18 and the Jets decide to take him as a project and he actually catches 200 balls for them over the next 4 years. He catches 24 TD passes over that span. He's the Jets 2nd or 3rd receiver every year over that span. He asks the Jets for a 5 year $45M contract at the end of that. Do you pay him? If you choose not to pay him because he's not worth that much and he leaves was he a bust? The problem I have with him is that I don't think he's going to be a star. I think the upside with him is Braylon Edwards, a good serviceable receiver who might have one or two really good career years but is unlikely to entice you to keep him around on his second deal. I think you have to get better than that on your 1st round pick. And I do agree that he has a real chance to bust also, however I think he's more likely to be one of those enigma guys who just frustrates the hell out of everybody involved, not least of all himself. It'd be nice to have seen another year out of him in college. It would have answered a lot of questions, but for whatever reason he's a redshirt sophomore at the age of 23.
You can't be serious with this assessment. Watch how Purifoy was man-handling this kid when Benjamin was playing against Florida. With NFL quality CBs, he's going to be so easy to shut down. If he consistently makes 2 catches in a game for 8 years, that would be in range of some 320 catches total. [That's about the bottom line I'd draw there.] His problem is not just that he has problem with concentration and has huge red flag with his hands. If a CB, half a foot shorter, actually manhandles him during the game, that has to tell the world something. Does he know how to high-point the ball? Does he know how to use his frame against smaller corners? Why is the midget dominating this big, tall kid like that? How is that even possible? If he gave the Jets 50 catches/year production for 4 years, he deserves everything he demands - and then some. I doubt if he will catch 50 in 5 years - let alone 50 in a year. Like I said, if he can produce and perform like that, he deserves to be paid. I seriously doubt if that will happen. If Jets decides to cut ties with him, that won't be because Benjamin is a bust, if that happens. Braylon Edwards was hailed as the most 'complete' receiver, coming out college. He didn't have that 'concentration' issue or red flag with 'hands' like Benjamin. [Which explains why he went in 1st round, btw.] I don't think that comparison is fair to Braylon, IMHO. Benjamin won't be halfway close to Braylon, according to my estimation. Yep. 24 year rookie. Real nice thing, right? He was playing against younger, smaller kids - and still couldn't dominate them like he was supposed to. And I am supposed to like that as a prospect? Not in my world. No.
How did the matchup against Florida play out in the end? I totally agree that there are real consistency issues and that Benjamin is going to have a real adjustment period to the NFL. I don't think he's going to be a star receiver. I do think he's going to present enough matchup issues over the years that he'll get his catches in. I'd take Marqise Lee over him every day of the week and twice on Sunday but that's not based on the bust chance. It's based on a realistic assessment of their ceilings which isn't even close.
1. 1st TD pass: Benjamin could score because a backup CB was on him. You can't blame that on Benjamin for sure, but he was not visible before, when Purifoy was on him. When Purifoy was covering Benjamin, collectively Florida State was up by 3. [3-0] And this TD pass is more or less because of 2 blitzing LBs that cannot get the job done. 2. 2nd TD against Purifoy should have been flagged for offensive pass interference. Looks more like MEH to me. [17-0, but should have been 10-0] By the way, that grab-and-tuck is a sure recipe for a yellow flag in the NFL. 3. The pass has been all really good all game long - with real good ball placement. Benjamin still drops 3 of them. And remember. Florida is unranked this year for a reason. Benjamin looked like shit - that's an understatement.
Yes, but you specifically called him out for a game where he caught 9 balls for 212 yards and 3 TD's and his team blew out the opponent. The logic is similar to a guy pleading for mercy after he killed his parents on the grounds he's an orphan.
Really matters on the situation a player goes into and all but for the sake of this thread......... 1) RB Ka'Reem Carey(His lack of speed lately has scared me and if you don't have that nor have the bruiser ability, it is kind of scary if he gets drafted in day 2 since he'll have some big shoes to fill on a team. Really good college back, just would be worried about this translating with so many fast and powerful defenders in the NFL. You really want a running back to at least have one or the other. Every year a running back takes an abrupt tumble in the draft.....could this happen to Carey?) 2) WR Allen Robinson(Will get drafted high but I think he'll be a no.4 WR on the NFL level. Not that's there is anything wrong with it...he could turn into a worthwhile red zone target but that's not what you'll want in Round 2 for him. He's another one of these projects who teams need to have a lot of patience with.) 3) *WR Davante Adams(I put an asterisk next to him because it depends on the situation he jumps into. The team/fanbase that takes him in round 2 needs to show patience with him. I don't think he jumps into the pros and suddenly pours it on from the get go. Might take him a good while to get the route running down as he bullied a lot of WAC talent. Vs USC, he and Carr both really did next to nothing vs a ordinary Secondary by the Trojans. This doesn't mean he's a bum but he needs to get taken by a team where he won't be expected to be a game by game contributor. If you get Justin Hunter of TEN's production out of him in year 1, you take it and run) 4) OLB Kyle Van Noy(Some see him as a superstar....I don't know about that. I see a solid run tackler who can get around the field, good pass coverage player and a very good rotational player....I don't know if you take him in early to mid round 2 if you're looking for a pass rushing monster at the spot. Zack Martin spanked him in the BYU/ND matchup this year to the point that Mayock forgot Van Noy was even on the field. I don't know if he'll ever rack up double digit sacks on a yearly basis. He'll do the little things and do them well but I don't see a game changer in him and if you take an OLB early to start round 2, you're hoping for that.) 5) TE Troy Niklas(Now this doesn't mean he sucks or anything....he's just a real unknown in the passing game. I don't know if Rees screwed him over this past season[Rees stinks] or if he could not get open[TJ Jones had no problem....] but he never once stuck out at me as a game changer at the tight end spot. He's a very good run opener and is better than what Eifert was at when it comes to pass protection but to me.....that's what you want in your number TWO tight end. I think Niklas like John Carlson or Anthony Fasano will make a living because of his protection and ability to create holes for his running backs but its real mystery if he becomes a two way Tight End, which is what you better be getting if he's taken in round 2. If he was a Day 3 pick or even a middle to late round 3 pick.....he's great value. I just wonder if the team that gets him will be let down that he isn't making a massive difference as a pass receiver. Kyle Rudolph fell to round 2 because of injuries but he was so much better than Niklas was for Notre Dame. If I had to rank Tight Ends from the Irish in this past decade.... 1) Kyle Rudolph 2) Tyler Eifert 3) Troy Niklas 4) Anthony Fasano 5) John Carlson Niklas is a real mystery. I wish he stood so he can finally get competent QB play from Golson but alas.)
I think Amaro will be a better player than guy who measures at the combine etc. That being said, he's the total opposite of Niklas/Fiedorowicz. Guy will be a pain for safeties on the offensive side but I just don't see it with his blocking in the pros. Could be a real problem. If you have a compliment who is block heavy for the guy though, you can do alright with Amaro.
I like seeing the extended opinion on the draft, and college gurus here. I'd love to make a list, but I am much more NFL knowledge, than NCAA knowledge.
I gotta go with projects Kelvin Benjamin Anthony barr And the Alabama left tackle ps : Marquise Lee will be a star on the nfl book it sadly, the ravens pick before us and are gonna take him 99%
Alright I'll play here's my 5 in no particular order. 1. Anthony Barr 2. Kony Ealy 3. CJ Mosley 4. Justin Gilbert 5. Brandin Cooks
In conventional situation, you can basically cross out two of his TDs - one of the which was a gross blown call, as you will have to admit. I just don't see the kind of difference maker that Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and other good WR prospects are, in Kelvin. As a QB, can you rely on him to make tough catches in tough situation? I seriously implore you to watch the clips of Kevin Norwood. He may not be as tall or gifted as Kelvin Benjamin, but you sure can count on him to make a catch, if you look in his direction. He will not 'wow' you with these YACs in the way Kelvin does - YAC was one of his weaknesses in fact - but his hands are much more reliable, and he high-points really well too. He even makes a tough catch against double coverage. So tell me - as an offensive coordinator, who do you think is more valuable? A guy with a lot of potential, that also has a real high chance to bust? Or a guy you can trust to make plays, even though you don't expect much more out of it afterwards? I always go with sure-fire strategy whenever possible, just so you know.
I totally agree with you that he's not likely to be a big difference maker. I just think he's also not likely to be a big bust. If somebody reaches for him up high then his bust potential goes way up because then the expectation levels are increased and the same mediocre career is seen as a bust instead of as a player who just didn't fully pan out.
Very much - I don't see him as a 1st round prospect, much in the same way I don't see Bortles as a 1st round QB prospect. Whoever grabs him as a 1st round WR prospect will be disappointed to say the very least. If he is taken in late round 2 or round 3 [this is where I think he belongs as of now, with all the question marks thrown around him] then he could provide a lot of values.
I don't know about busts, but my 5 most overrated are Eric Ebron Dee Ford CJ Mosley Justin Gilbert Brandin Cooks
