Guys, Mo's cutter has consistently been flattening out inch by inch for at least the past 5 years now. A lot of his success over that time frame had to do with him still getting respect from hitters and the fact that at its peak it was a ridiculously good pitch so he had room to decline. Now guys respect it less, and they're able to hit it. Does that mean Mo is done? No. It does mean the sun is setting though. (Plus, I wouldn't be surprised right now if he's dealing with an injury he refuses to acknowledge.) AJ is a damned mess. It's not about hair color, or tattoos, or any off-field BS. The guy just has complete mental breakdowns an inning before he should be pulled. He's pitching like a #5 and getting paid to be an ace. It's frustrating to say the least. Not winning for a month and half is ridiculous. The debate on Nova should be over now. He has to stay up here. CC, Colon, Nova is the October rotation. Garcia would be next in line, then Hughes (obviously pending the rest of Hughes' year). AJ shouldn't even be on the postseason roster. (Which is crazy for me to say, since I'm probably the biggest AJ homer I know.) Send down Noesi and promote Montero. Chavez can play third, but I don't want him DHing. When ARod comes back, send down Cervelli who shouldn't be on the pro club. Chavez and Nunez can spell the infielders. Posada is the last man off the bench. Montero would then be the backup catcher, with Posada the emergency backstop. Honestly, if AJ weren't getting paid so much money, I'd probably advocate dumping him and promoting Warren. This isn't a bad team by any means. It isn't a team I think can win a series in October though. Not right now. Move around some of the pitching, and make a couple of changes to the positional roster though, and I think it could be a different story.
AJ hasn't been stellar, but he's been consistently "okay" during this losing streak. From the LoHud blog: Some of those games should be wins. As for Mo, also from LoHud: As for the cutter flattening out over the past five years... here's his cutter's horizontal and vertical movement according to Pitch F/X: Year - Horiz. - Vert. 2007 - 3.7 - 7.2 2008 - 2.7 - 7.2 2009 - 2.1 - 6.3 2010 - 1.6 - 7.3 2011 - 2.6 - 7.3 Looks pretty consistent to me in terms of average bite.
Well, in only one of those games was he pulled before the sixth inning (and that was the recent very bad start against Baltimore). In the rest of his starts, he pitched into the sixth three times, completed six once, completed seven once, and completed eight innings once. Like I said, he hasn't been stellar, so please don't think I'm praising him here. I'm just saying that this isn't like last year where he was atrocious. Yes, he's a head case. Yes, he should be better than he has been. Yes, he's overpaid given his performance. But typically, I'd wager that if a pitcher puts up that kind of performance six times out of seven, the Yankees should/will him him at least one of those games.
Keep in mind, I've been a homer for AJ this year and defended him a lot. There have been games he pitched well that he should have won. Then there are games he gets a dozen runs, and can't even make it to the 7th. As far as Mo, I can't say what Pitch F/X knows. All I can say is that it appears flat when watching it. He still throws nasty ones, like to Ortiz the other night, but then he throws ones like to Abreu last night that any MLB player should be able to put into play. Also, what was the movement prior to '07? My assertion is that the past 5 years are a degrading of the pitch from previous to that half-decade, which I may not have made clear enough. Just looking at 2007, the horizontal movement would appear to have drastically changed. Again though, I'm not at all jumping on the "sky is falling, Mo is done" bandwagon. He's still pitching great overall. Those flat ones are just coming a bit more often now, so he's looking more vulnerable. Would I choose any other closer over him right now? Not at all.
Pitch F/X doesn't have that data. But you said it's been "consistently flattening out inch by inch over the past five years." I'm seeing a fairly consistent pitch over the past five years. ETA: And he has been amazingly effective and consistent with his results during those five years, too. Are they, though? Are they really? You'd think if that were the case, you'd see more of a dip in his effectiveness. And before you go pointing to two bad outings in a row, let's remember that the Boston one was a wall-scraping double followed by two outs. Tough way to blow a save.
As I said, I may not have expressed myself clearly enough. It's nothing I feel like arguing over. Again, I'm not writing him off. He's had two bad appearances, and while he's had more bad ones this year than in previous years, I'm still not picking a single other closer over Mo to shut a game down for me if I have the choice. If I were going to jump on the "Mo is done" bandwagon, I'd also have to jump on the CC sucks one as well. There's one team we need Sabathia to beat, and he hasn't beaten them a single time this year yet. Does that mean he wouldn't be my game 1 starter in October? Not a chance.
No, I think I get your main point... I'm just not sure I agree with the part in bold. Is he REALLY getting hit harder? Is he REALLY having more poor performances (because of age-related decline)? I guess I'm just having a hard time seeing it. ETA: I seem to recall Mo having an August/September slump ever year since 2003 and, every year, some people would start beating the Mo is declining drum. (Not saying you're really doing that, but you did say the sun is setting.)
Fair point. I think you might be right about the yearly slump too, so maybe I'm just not recalling well, but it feels like he normally has between 2 and 3 blown saves each year, and this is two in a week (and I'm pretty sure he had a week with multiple blown saves earlier in the year too). Who knows? I could be (and hopefuly am) way off. Honestly, right now, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's actually injured and not talking about it. I hope that if he is though, he says something to Girardi. The pen is deep enough right now to work without him. I don't want to have him at less than his best for the playoffs though.
So going through fangraphs he is having a pretty good year by the peripherals, here are the places where he is different from his career averages. Less walks less GB More FB BABIP is much closer to league average than normal batters are swinging at and making contact with a lot more balls out of the zone, Now in the splits is where you really see something interesting. A 15% drop in GB% with that being split evenly between LD and FB. edit- the splits difference is vs lefties also his velocity movement and location are pretty similar to other years, so the question is whether he is just making more mistake pitches vs lefties or if they are taking a different approach which is reaping benefits.
Nova has been really good this year. Funny that the Padres could have had him if they kept him on the 40 man roster.
I have a feeling Hughes is getting moved to the pen unless he throws a no-hitter Saturday. Nova definitely deserves a spot, but there's no reason Hughes shouldn't also stay in the rotation if he pitches well enough. Colon has earned a spot too (though another couple of bad outings could change that), Garcia isn't going anywhere (and rightfully so), and as was said, while it's the most logical move, AJ won't get "demoted" to the pen. Nova has been awesome though. Where are all the people who laughed at me when I talked about him being a legit #2 now?
I don't remember specifically who but I do think I recall at least one person on this board giving me crap. I got more on Twitter, but whatever. It's nothing serious.
