Your common sense is based on feelings about your favorite team, mine is based on hard numbers and history. You believe, good for you! I applaud that... but I don't feel the same. We'll bump this in a few months I'm sure and we'll see who's right and have a few laughs. No biggie. Or whatever team gets to 95 wins... I didn't say nobody has a chance at catching them, I said the Yankees won't catch them. Whether or not the get the WC is yet to be seen.
There is no magic number. 95 games has been the bar for the last 5 yrs. Not since the induction of the wild card. My common sense is based on any rational thinking baseball fan. I have never in my life heard someone say well we trail the wild card leader by four games, but dont worry about that we have to get to 95 wins. What else to expect from a Mets fan
Let's change the parameters of this argument just for fun. I think the Yankees will be in first place in the WC race when they start their series with Cleveland on August 10th because of the strength of each team's schedule. I also don't think the Yankees will play at the same level as the 98 team for the rest of the season. I also don't think once they are in first place they will lose it. In your logic how is that possible? Or we could look at this way. In the five years you like to quote 5 of the 15 division winners had less then 95 wins for the season. In all of those years, from the links you posted above, there were many teams at this point in the season with better winning percentages then teams have now. If both of those are true then why do you insist that it will take 95 wins for the wildcard when it may not take 95 wins for the divisions? Is every team in baseball going to get hot all of a sudden?
Now you're claiming to be the voice of all rational baseball fans and turning this into a Mets fan vs. Yankee fan thing which is not only irrelevant to the topic but silly. I have agreed that my number is not the gold standard but merely what I'm basing my argument on after looking at history and the pace of the current leader. I've even agreed to knock it down a little and still debate that number. If you can't handle that and your only comeback is that Joe B. can't close games and that I'm a Mets fan then that's too bad. Put all the magic numbers aside for a minute... what I'm saying is the Yanks have been the hottest team in baseball for 2 months. In order for them to make the playoffs they will have to stay the hottest team in baseball for more then 2 months and paly at an even higher level then they are now (or have in a long long time)... on top of that 2 teams that are ahead of them will have to play worse then they have for the past 100 games. They will be close enough to remain in the hunt for a while but unless there is some drastic change to not only them but the other two team they're not going to get it. I'll stand by that till the endof September and if I end up eating crow then so be it, but I'm not going to back down to the arguments you guys have put forth so far. Most of the numbers being posted by you guys weren't even correct and the hole "we're the Yankees so this will be easy" is laughable
Those two teams who they have to jump are the Mariners who are .5 games(one loss) ahead and the Indians. So pretty much they really only trail the Indians for the wildcard. I still dont understand how you need a dramatic change to come back from a 4 game deficit. I am not saying this is going to be easy or they will slam dunk make the postseason, but you paint this situation as a bleak maybe if everything breaks right situation which it is not. They hold a big series with the Indians in a couple weeks which will do a good amount to determine the wild card. Why would they have to play at a higher level if there current level has done a great job at cutting the deficit in the wild card? Four games is just that, four games. It is not a mountain but it is not a bump in the road and that has been my whole point all thread. How can anyone kill a Yankees fan for thinking postseason hunt back 4 games at the end of July?
If you're going on strength of schedule take a look at the NYY schedule from 8/18 - 9/5 and tell me how they hold on to the WC... I don't understand your point/question. Nobody needs to get hot, the Sox and Indians just need to stay at the same pace as they've been all year. It's actually the opposite... they'll both need to go cold.
On another topic, I just read this. Wonder what they're offering. "In what only can be described as a strange twist, the Tigers have an interest in taking Kyle Farnsworth off the Yankees' hands. According to multiple sources, the Tigers are looking to make a deal that would bring Farnsworth back to the team he pitched 46 games for in 2005." And this. "Joba Chamberlain made his first start for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (Triple-A) last night, striking out 10 in five scoreless innings. While the Yankees are toying with bringing the stud right-hander to the big leagues and use him out of the bullpen, Cashman didn't say that was a guarantee." http://www.nypost.com/seven/07262007/sports/yankees/kyle_has_eye_of_tigers_yankees_george_king.htm
So the Twins/Jays/Mariners are totally out of the equation? But the Yankees... simply because they are the Yankees... are still in it? Because I don't think the Yankees are as bad as they were in April and May and I don't believe they are as good as they were in June and July. I think they're somehwere in the middle and that will shake out over the next 60. Somewhere in the middle won't cut it. They need to better then they've already been to make up the ground. And so will the 6 games against boston, the 8 against detroit, ect ect. Because if this level was good enough they'd already have the wild card spot.
According to your 95 win theory none of those teams have a shot. thats my biggest head scratcher with the whole first to 95 thing. If you say the Yankees wont or cant compete for the wild card then that means your saying that the Indians are a lock to win the wildcard b/c every other wild card contender is either right in the yanks shoes or worse. Yes, the Mariners who are 1 games in the loss better then the Yanks are in the same boat as the Yanks. The mariners are out b/c I feel they dont have the team to put a run with the Yanks. The twins n jays are too far back IMO. W L GB Left Cleveland Indians 59 42 -- 61 Seattle Mariners 54 45 4.0 63 New York Yankees 54 46 4.5 62 Minnesota Twins 51 50 8.0 61 Toronto Blue Jays 51 50 8.0 61
I know the schedule after the 10th. I'm talking about the schedule before the 10th and where I think both teams will be when that series starts. The Sox and Indians have both gone cold. Haven't you even noticed that? The sox were in the .640s and the indians in the .630s in june. Actually, even worse. Boston was .679 and Cleveland .642 on June 1st.
So 4.5 games back is realistic but 8 games isn't? LOL!!! I don't understand why 95 games is such a head scratcher for you... all the Indians need to do to get 95 wins is play at the same exact pace they've played all season long. If you stop ignoring that fact you won't have to scratch your head so much.
first time....why is it so hard for you to believe that the indians can play worse the last 65 games than they have so far? i dont understand that. then you ask why yankee fans are counting out the jays and twins....well you think its next to impossible that the yanks make it so how on gods earth would the jays and twins make it when theyre 2 or 3 games worse than the yankees right now???? and your pointing out that the last 5 years 95 is the magic number would be a great point if this was one of those years...its not...your "history" means absolute shit......please go back to the met threads
Lol? No, 4 games in the loss as opposed to 8. I think 4 games is a difference dont you? You seem to think so b/c you see 4 games between the Yanks n Indians as impossible. Finally, Teams dont play consistent win percentage through out the whole year.Would it be the most unpredictable thing in the world if the indians didnt play .600 in their final 60 plus games. If every division leader does in the final 60 games what they have done all year then we can just pencil in the playoff brackets right now
all they have to do is play at the same pace? just that easy huh.....why do you think true baseball expertsd wait til august to see whos gonna be a contender? how many teams in the last 5 years(your favorite test sample) do you think dropped off their win pace in august and september? cream rises dude, thats why they play this incredibley long schedule....."all they have to do is keep up the pace" hahahahah thats just a dumb, dumb statement dude....I hope the Jets start out at 3-1 because then we will just have to "keep up the pace" and 12-4 is a lock babay!!!!!!!!
They can play worse... and the yanks still won't have a better record in several scenarios. that's exactly my point... Chad is applying one standard to the yanks and another to every other team... it's BS. I'll remember that History means shit next time you start whining about the yankees great history. :breakdance:
Because we're not talking about 2 months like most yankee fans in this thread I'm talkng about the entire season so far. As I pointed out even if the Tribe play less then the pace they've played for 100 games they'll still finish ahead of the Yankees. Good annalogy comparing 4 jets games to 100 baseball games... real close comparrison Johnny.
That's exactly my point. you think 4 games is nothing when it's your team that needs to overcome it but other teams have no chance of doing that? I agree with this, and that's why I think the Yanks are riding a hot streak and when things shake out over 6 month (as opposed to the 2 month sample you keep talking about) we'll see their pace slow down. It's great to talk about how great a team is in the midst of their best hot streak... talk to me in a month or two and see if they can keep it up. The Tribe are not on a hot streak... the level of play I expect of them is pretty much what we've seen when you look at their ups and downs...
I'll agree with one thing. The Yankees won't stay as hot as they are now nor will they ever get as cold as they were in Apr and May. Don't forget they had 4 starters on the DL at various times in that stretch, as well as Matsui and Damon. They were using class A,AA and AAA pitchers to try and survive. Giambi and Hughes have been out for 6 weeks or so even now. So while they won't stay this hot, they are still a much better team with everybody back and I see no reason why once they get the WC lead they won't keep it with the team they have now. Besides, by the end of the day we may be chasing Detroit anyway as they are both playing like crap.
Just like I see a difference betwen a team with a 59 wins and a team with 54 wins... but I guess they're the same thing too right?
