I was actually going to say this before, but Hughes reminds me a lot of Burnett. He has a really good fastball when it's on, but he absolutely needs his other pitches to be "on" in order to be effective. If any of his stuff is off in an outing, like Burnett, his entire repertoire caves.
Is he trying to throw it? Sort of. It's sporadic, but I can't tell whether he's not throwing it more often because he doesn't have a feel for those pitches, or if it's because he's just trying to establish the fastball and can't even get that over. His location isn't way off so much as it is spotty. He's making mistake pitches that good teams will hit. It wouldn't be such an issue if it weren't compounded by the fact that they can sit fastball on him. So when Vernon Wells is sitting fastball and Hughes misses up over the plate instead of low and away, even though that pitch was waaaay up (like letter-high or more) Wells turned on it. And even that doesn't tell the whole story. When Hughes' fastball is on AND when teams aren't sitting on it, he generates swings and misses on a regular basis. Whenever he struggles, it's rarely because he's being rocked and almost always because he can't put guys away; batters will foul pitch after pitch off. That was the problem last night. He didn't get hit really hard (minus that Wells HR) so much as worn down. 3-2 counts all night (after being ahead 0-2 or 1-2). And it's because he wasn't fooling anyone. And that is mostly on the pitch selection. Even an occasional show-me change would help him (assuming he could throw it for a strike now and again). But his change is pretty good... which I why I don't understand the hesitancy to use it. It's absolutely baffling. Eh... Cervelli's defense ain't been too hot lately, either.
I didn't catch last night's game, but over-reliance on the fastball has been a major problem for Hughes this season. He has trouble locating his curve, and seems to have no confidence in his changeup. Most of his best starts this season have been old school Pettitte style, playing his cutter off his fastball. But let's not forget, Pettitte wasn't a consistently good pitcher back when he used to rely on that style of pitching. Frankly, Cervelli sucks behind the plate. He's better than Jorge, but that's like calling a heroin healthier than meth--I mean, it's true, but you don't want to be relying on either. I like Frankie for his energy and versatility, but he doesn't really excel at anything on the field. Hopefully we see Posada start almost every postseason game.
He's been having this problem for a few months now. He doesn't trust his changeup and loses touch of his curveball pretty easily. He has to work on mastering at least one of those two pitches for next season if he's going to reach his potential. It would probably be easier with his curveball, because in the minors and before his injuries, that is the pitch that made him the top pitching prospect in baseball.
