A month ago nobody was talking about Odell Beckham as a 1st round pick. Now we have the Combine and BOOM! he's gonna be the guy. I'm just tired of the Terry Bradway Imaginarium. I'd like to draft somebody up high who was actually *the* guy at their program at least once in their career. I just don't see how we get out of the cycle of disappointing projects if we keep projecting people to do more in the NFL than they have actually done in school. Beckham isn't projected as a clear cut 1st round pick by anybody at this point. I'd hate us to be the ones who bought into the hype again.
Player's rise and fall with more information surfacing. Last year's #1 pick in the draft wasn't even on the radar as an early rd pick during the Fall of 2012. I've always had Beckham as a early rd 2 to very late rd 1 player. Beckham was the Guy at LSU, its just the case he had other excellent players in their offense. Beckham isn't a project and comparing him to Hill (in the draft) is totally unfair. Beckham has DONE A LOT at LSU, look up his stats. Hill was a shitty pick and a project, Beckham is anything but a project. If you want a truly elite player at #18 it's not happening, but we should be able to get a solid addition.
You know what I can't figure out? You can definitely break down video algorithmically to tell you what speeds a player plays at in various situations. For WR's and CB's why don't teams do this? You want to know how fast a player is on the football field, not running in a lane in his skivvies. It's a simple mathematical conversion once you have All-22 film and accurate timing increments to go on. The football field is a standard length. Having people run the 40 at the Combine is entertaining but all it does is create hype around fast players and lead the Oakland Raiders to make lamentable draft picks. If the Jets don't have a way to pick up the splits and get real speed measurements off of All-22 film they really should get that installed. It can't be a major expense. A little software overlaying the current video system and you're good to go.
My thoughts: 1) I can't see Mettenberger drop to Day 3. Only way this happens is if someone takes McCarron over him. I had the Vikes take Mettenberger with the final pick of round 3. 2) Not a fan of Bucannon in round 2, think he'd be around by the 3rd round. He is a big time hitter and very good run stopper but he has a lot of work to do when taking angles and he needs to sure up his coverage skills. I think Tre Boston is more of the safety Rex and Co. would want. He's someone to watch out for with one of our 3rd round picks. 3) Love Beckham Jr at pick 18 but I think we can trade down with say Zona if Lewan/Martin are around. Miami won't hide it, they want a lineman....so we could be in a good spot to do it. The factor people forget with Beckham Jr is we hired LSU's former Special Teams coach....which means Beckham has a good influence in our decision making. I am fine with Beckham Jr over Lee though. 4) McGill seems like the type of corner who would work with us due to his sheer size and talent. Very good pick. 5) Hate waiting that long for a TE. We're going to have to make it more of a virtue to get ourselves one. I think with Amaro not doing so greatly with his measurements and ASJ still nursing a tender foot and possibly being rusty at his pro day, we have a shot at one of them with our 2nd round pick.
Players rise and fall from participating in the Combine. Beckham ran pretty much what was expected. Beckham really excelled in the other drills. I still like Matthews and said he was a player that could rise to the Jet's selection. I haven't changed my mind how I feel about Matthews, you are going to get a smart, hard working productive player.
Mettenberger is a pretty decent QB, what screwed him up was Les Miles obsession with Jarrett Lee early in Mettenberger's career to the point that Mettenberger got thrown around as a "Hot Hand QB" and got tossed around/misused until Lee graduated. Mettenberger showed promise under Cam Cameron and his pro style offense he instituted. Very big that he got a head start with this type of an offense.
What are you talking about dude? Mettenberger was only at LSU for one season with Jarrett Lee! He was at Georgia and then a junior college before LSU..... Tell us more about this pretty decent QB that is probably a 1st round pick without the knee injury!
So true. I love watching Charlie Casserly hand-timing the 40 at the combine. You can't replace a scout's eye! Riiiiiiight.
That what I was saying....he got shuffled around early with Lee. He never got the true reigns of the offense until later in his collegiate career. I don't think he was fully utilized at LSU until this past season. I don't agree that he'd be a 1st round pick without the injury but he will drop 1-2 rounds because of the tear. He's solid all around, just doesn't necessarily excel at anything. I think he can be a quality backup for years.
What you are saying is completely wrong though! He came from a junior college in 2011 after getting kicked out of Georgia. Lee was the estabilished starter there already and Mettenberger only threw like 11 passes in 2011. You are trying to make it sound like he was constantly subbed in and pulled for Lee. That was Jordan Jefferson! I know my Tiger football..... He was with the program for three years and was the full-time starter for two of them.
I just looked it up. That's right, how I can forget about the uber scrub Jordan Jefferson. Ugh. I don't get why he was appealing to Miles and Co. Inconsistent at best QB and a real "team player".
Beckham had one year with more than 50 catches and he only got to 59 catches that year. I just don't see that as a guy who is going to come onto the Jets and catch 80+ passes a year and that's what they need to get with this pick. If Beckham turns into Santonio Holmes in the NFL we're just screwed, because no matter how good a complementary player is he's just complementary and you still have to go find your #1 WR.
Exactly. There just isn't gonna be a can't miss bonafied #1 WR at #18.Every single one of the WR prospects has a risk involved with them. College production isn't a security blanket. I'm so tired of the box score scouting on here. Why is it so hard to comprehend that players come from different schemes/level of competition/surrounding cast/off the field background/levels of development?? There was only 1 football to go around at LSU. Between Beckham,Landry, & Hill.But I guess we'll pass on Beckham for the sole reason that he only caught 59 balls,right? Cause he HAS to catch 80 for the Jets to have any level of success.Please.
Well, let me try to explain it this way. Last year Alshon Jeffery had a really good season, one that made many teams regret passing on him in 2012 draft. He caught 89 passes, which was just way above what you'd think he was capable of. Except for one thing. His sophomore year at South Carolina he caught 88 passes for 1517 yards and 9 TD's. He had established that he was capable of doing big things in the right offense. In 2004 and 2005 Santonio Holmes caught 53 and 55 balls for Ohio State. He was one of several complementary players who played very well off of each other. He has had one season in the NFL that was above that level. He caught 79 balls from Ben Roethlisberger the year the Steelers decided they had seen enough and fire-saled him out of town. Other than that he has been a mid-50's catch guy for his career when he was healthy. A lot of talent there no doubt but he had never established that the talent was going to turn into a #1 and he still hasn't as his career draws near to it's end. Look at what people actually did in college when you are projecting them in the NFL. Most of the guys who were mid 50's catch guys in college are going to have that kind of ceiling in the NFL too. If they had the goods to be really great they'd have done that in college. It's not that the potential isn't there for a lot of these guys. It's that the reality is that they have never fulfilled that potential and you'd better have a really good plan for getting top production out of them if you didn't see it in college. A simpler way of putting this is: never imagine that a player can do something at a position in the NFL that he didn't do in college. It's possible that he can but it's much more likely that what you see is what you get and it goes downhill from there.
AJ Greene- Average receptions per year in College: 55 Nfl Average receptions per year: 86 Michael Floyd College: 67 NFL:55 Julio Jones College: 60 NFL: 58(Injured for half of last year) Demaryius Thomas College 40 NFL: 60 Michael Crabtree College: 115 NFL: 65(Discluded last season as he missed several games) Dwayne Bowe College: 39 NFL: 68 Braylon Edwards College: 83(Didn't count freshman yr) NFL: 36 Larry Fitzgerald College: 81 NFL: 94 Charles Rogers College: 68 NFL:12 Andre Johnson College:30 NFL 93 Rashaun Woods College: 74 NFL: 7 TOTAL receptions That's a pretty good sample size of some of the more elite prospects over the last 10 years or so. You sure you want to keep pounding this production thing into the ground? Call me stupid but seems like a crapshoot to me
What's the ceiling that the guys established? Michael Floyd: 67 in college, 65 in the NFL (albeit this is early in his career) Julio Jones: 75 in college, 79 in the NFL DeMaryius Thomas: Impossible comparison because he played in a run-option in college and he played with Peyton Manning the last two years. That's like Mars and Venus. Michael Crabtree: 134 in college, 85 in the NFL Dwayne Bowe: 65 in college, 86 in the NFL. (LSU passed 45/55 KC did the reverse in Bowe's early years, now they're back to that ratio and he's catching high 50's right where you would expect him to be.) Braylon Edwards: 97 in college, 80 in the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald: 92 in college, 103 in the NFL. Charles Rogers: (a bust is a bust, it happens) Andre Johnson: 52 in college, 115 in the NFL. (He was the #3 pick overall. Everybody knew he was going to be great. He was 3rd in the Big East in catches and 1st in yards) Rashaun Woods: Tore ligaments in his thumb so badly that the 49ers let him go two years after drafting him in the 1st. He failed physicals after that and was out of the NFL in 3 years. Injury case. Spent the entire 2005 season, the one after he was drafted on IR. Ceilings matter. A guy may not catch as many balls as he caught in college unless he is paired with a great QB or is an extraordinary athlete but he'll rarely catch more unless one of the above is true.
All of those guys except 2 on Kurt's list are good wide receivers. Floyd is establishing himself. You got Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald, Julio, Thomas and Crabtree. Pretty nice group. But each of the WRs had skill-sets that were translatable in the next level. Production in the collegiate level plays a huge role but they don't have to grab 90 to 100 balls to be productive. Stephen Hill had like 40 catches, that to me is TOO low and also an offense where he doesn't really develop much as a WR was a red flag
He didn't have 40 catches. He had 28 catches in his top year. The odds on him developing into a good WR were probably 100-1. As a roleplayer with maybe a 50 catch ceiling the odds were much higher but he wasn't going to be a star unless a miracle happened. Never project a player to do a lot more than he did in college, let alone make a quantum leap. You're just asking for pain and suffering if you're waiting for a guy who caught 49 balls in his college career to catch 75 in a season.
I meant in his entire collegiate career, I was still wrong it was 49. Jets will need someone that can contribute right away, because that wide receiver will be thrown into the starting lineup. Matthews and even to an extent Marquis Lee are the guys that have succeeded in college that still have un-tapped potential that could really make them good wide-outs
