Worst-Case Tackle Scenarios

Discussion in 'Draft' started by joelip, Apr 14, 2020.

  1. joelip

    joelip Well-Known Member

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    Well folks it now looks like there are three teams locked into taking tackles before our 11th pick (Giants, Cardinals, Browns). Unfortunately, the Bucs also sorely need a tackle to protect Brady and may well trade up with Carolina or Jacksonville to take the other of the 4 can't miss tackles.

    This leaves us with a dilemma with some choices, including: (a) we could take the 5th tackle on the board (probably Jones at 11); (b) we could look to trade back and take Jones later; and (c) we could get a superior, Pro Bowl-caliber athlete at another position of need. Of these scenarios, I'm certainly in favor of b or c, depending on what we could get in a trade.

    I would not, however, dismiss c, as I'm convinced that Lamb will AT LEAST duplicate Deandre Hopkins' career (barring injury) and that Chaisson (despite his doubters) will AT LEAST duplicate Clay Matthews' career. Look at what the man can do on tape! Look at how he hustles! He's just a baby beginning to scratch at his potential! Anyway, if we go route c, we have to go tackle in round 2 and we pray that one of the remaining tackles (Niang?, Wanogho?, Wilson?, Peart?) can fill our right tackle spot (I think Fant is more a left tackle than right). We also pray that the pundits are right about the possibility of finding good starting quality later in this draft because that's where we would have to go, at latest, at 68. (I think 79 should be reserved for CB?). What do people think?
     
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  2. dawinner127

    dawinner127 Well-Known Member

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    Giants are far from a lock to take a tackle at 4. Simmons, Derrick Brown, and Okudah are all strong possibilities. Derrick Brown was +2000 to go to the Giants yesterday morning and by 2:00pm he dropped to +800.
     
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  3. joelip

    joelip Well-Known Member

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    Good point, and I certainly pray that you're right; I just think getting the best tackle to protect Jones (they could even trade back with the Chargers and still get their #1 tackle) will be their priority.
     
  4. joelip

    joelip Well-Known Member

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    And I meant to say that in the Chaisson scenario we would have to take a tackle at 48 and a wide receiver at 68.
     
  5. dawinner127

    dawinner127 Well-Known Member

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    Their OL wasn't as bad as everyone is making it out to be. They ranked somewhere in the middle in terms of pass protection. The problem with that OL was that Jones was holding onto the ball way to long if his first read was not available. If you go back and watch Jones he struggled mightily if he hit the final step of his drop and the first look wasn't open. He was at his best when he didn't have to hold the ball a little longer and could just let it rip right away.

    I really want Jeudy, Lamb, or Ruggs at 11, but I think there is a really good shot that one or two tackles are sitting at 11 for us.
     
    #5 dawinner127, Apr 14, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2020
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  6. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Chaisson is not even under consideration imo. This draft HAS to be about protecting Sam and getting some better WR options for him. Edge will have to wait until the bottom of the 3rd round or 4th, or next year. Yes, it's a need, and has been, but for now, it has to take a backseat to developing Sam. If Sam doesn't develop, it won't matter if we trade for Ngakou, or take Chaisson and he's the second coming of Gastineau, Klecko, Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, and Michael Strahan.

    In terms of LT, if we don't get one of the top 4 or Josh Jones, then Sam could be in trouble. I think Ezra Cleveland and Prince Tega Wanogho have some potential at LT, but that's it. Maybe Ben Bartch a little later. I don't think Matthew Peart has much potential at all. I think his ceiling is career backup. Niang and Wilson are strictly RT prospects imo.

    As another poster said, my heart wants Lamb or Jeudy, but my head wants a LT. We can always take WRs with picks #48 and 68. At #79, I'd look to take an Edge first. If there wasn't one there that I was high on, then I'd move on to CB or maybe even another OL. CB may have to wait until the 5th round or next year. In the 4th round I'm taking AJ Dillon if he's there.
     
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  7. joelip

    joelip Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it's hard to disagree about the #1 need is to protect Sam. I'm just questioning how much of a reach it would be to take the #5 tackle at 11 over other players with Pro Bowl written all over them. So what's your opinion of Jones' value?
     
  8. joelip

    joelip Well-Known Member

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    Put another way, if we can't get a top 4 tackle plus, say, Pittman at 48, should we go all out to get Jones (even at 11?) or do we just take Lamb or Jeudy at 11 and, say, Wanogho at 48?
     
  9. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    Good tackles are just too valuable and to far between. Good/great tackles are gone early. Like I said in another thread, this may be the closest we get to drafting a top tackle for years to come.

    I would not be shocked if JoeD traded up to get his guy. Joe is a former offensive lineman. He cut his teeth in the trenches. When Joe watches film on the 2020 prospects, he MAY see something in one of the top 4 that reaches out to him. And if 'his guy' falls to within striking distance, he may pounce.

    As a first year GM, being able to cross FQB and FLT/RT off the list for the next 15 years would put Joe Douglas at the top of his class. He might put the 3rd round pick he got for 'hidden production' to good use.
     
    #9 Footballgod214, Apr 14, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2020
  10. joelip

    joelip Well-Known Member

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    Yes, and I understand that statistical analysis reveals that good tackles in the first round are some of the best bust-proof choices.
     
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  11. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    With Mangold and D'Brick manning our line for so long, I think we kinda forgot how important a good center and tackle can be. We've struggled every year since those men retired. This may be the year JoeD ends the game of musical chairs we've been playing. I hope he can do it w/o trading up, but if he does trade up and lands our next D'Brick for the next decade and a half, no one will remember the 3rd round pick he used.
     
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  12. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I think Jones has good potential. He is supposedly strong, athletic and mobile, just raw technique-wise. In terms of value, I think Lamb and Jeudy are better value, but if Douglas believes that he needs to or has to get an LT in this draft, then need could outweigh value in his mind. As a number of posters have pointed out, excellent WR prospects will be available lower in the 1st round and in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

    Personally, I think I'd rather go with Lamby or Jeudy, and then sign Peters or re-sign Beacham, and maybe take a flyer on Wanogho in the 2nd if Douglas thinks he has real potential. I don't think I would. I'd probably take an Edge, CB, or RT prospect like Niang or Wilson at #48.

    As I think you mentioned, the Bucs will probably take an OT at #14, so if none of the top 4 OTs are there at #11, and Douglas wants Jones then I think he'll have to take him at #11. He may be able to con the Raiders into moving up a spot, but I doubt it. Jones could wind up being a solid to very good LT, but could also wind up being the worst of the group or maybe even a bust. I don't think that taking a player at a position where you have a big need at #11, who is likely to go at #14, is a reach, at least not a big one, but in Jones' case, it could be. He had the most bench presses, but was worse in every other statistical category, and is rawer technically. He would be a bit of a project, and should one take a project in the 1st round? It will all depend on how confident Douglas is in Fant, how much he likes Jones, and if he thinks he can either develop Tanogho or Cleveland (if he's still there at #48, which is doubtful), or has a plan to sign Peters, re-sign Beacham, or trade for Trent Williams or another LT, and then hope to get an LT next year.

    I could see him going either way. I could see him taking a WR regardless of who is there at #11, but I could also see him taking Jones at #11. If one of the top 4 OTs is still there at #11 and Douglas isn't high on him, he may even swing a deal with Tampa to move up and take that tackle and then Douglas take Jones at #14.

    If one is going on pure value, then taking Lamb or Jeudy at #11 would be the best value over Jones certainly, and maybe even over most of, or even all four of the top OTs. It just depends on how Douglas has them ranked. To be honest, I don't know what I'd do. Part of me really wants one of the top 4 OTs, part of me wants Lamb or Jeudy, and part of me wants a trade down, adding another 2nd round pick or a 3rd and 4th, then taking Jones.

    It's going to be interesting.
     
    #12 NCJetsfan, Apr 14, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2020
  13. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG] Following is a chart I composed to compare the 7 prospects I think Douglas will be considering in the 1st round. If one goes strictly by the draft ranking and think's that their value, then if Wills isn't there, then Lamb or Jeudy would be the pick. If one takes into consideration positional need that could change, perhaps dramatically. Again, I think it depends on what Douglas' plan A and plan B are, and how much confidence he has in Fant and Edoga.

    It's interesting to me how the closely the physical profiles are of the players at each position. Thomas is probably the worst fit in the Jets' scheme, but he has the most experience at LT and the longest arms, but the 2nd slowest 40 time. As we know the 40 time isn't that important for OL, but they all didn't do the 3 Cone and Shuttle Drills so we can't compare them. Becton at by far the heaviest and biggest of the group ran the 2nd fastest 40 time, but he is also the rawest, and his weight could be a constant concern. Can he take 20-30 pounds off, still maintain his strength and leverage, gain more quickness/agility, and stay healthier? Good question. Will he work hard to develop his technique and not just try to get by on his size alone? Can Wills and Wirfs make the switch to the left side?

    At WR, Lamb is an inch taller and 5 pounds heavier. Their arm lengths and hand sizes are almost identical. Jeudy outjumped Lamb in the vertical by half an inch and is .05 of a second faster, but Lamb bested Jeudy by 4 inches in the long jump. Jeudy is the superior route runner, but Lamb is supposedly a good route runner and has the physical tools to become every bit as good as Jeudy as a route runner. Lamb is better with contested catches and YAC.

    [​IMG]
    https://imgur.com/a/HAQhiuk

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #13 NCJetsfan, Apr 14, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2020
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  14. joelip

    joelip Well-Known Member

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    Interesting analysis. Certainly, most pundits don't have Jones for consideration even at 14, never mind 11, but this doesn't mean that the Jets (or Tampa Bay) don't have him so highly rated. I still really want one of the 4 big name tackles. What do you think of the idea of trading up (and giving up one of our round 3 picks) to get the tackle of our choice? I would hate this, too, but it may be the lesser of two evils if the tackles outside the top 4 actually stink.
     
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  15. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely, no trading up!!!! To begin with none of those OTs are elite, "can't miss-type" prospects, and you don't waste draft capital to trade up for someone who isn't elite. Second, and just as importantly, the Jets have too many holes to even think about trading up. They need more picks, not less. Third, this is Douglas's first draft on his own. I'm sure that he wants to prove his draft acumen. If anything, he will trade down, not up, but I expect him to stay put. If the right LT prospect is there, Douglas will probably take him. If not, he'll take one of Lamb/Jeudy, add an OT in the 2nd or 3rd round, and then add Beacham, Peters or Trent Williams immediately following the draft. Fourth, there are no guarantees than any of the top 4 OT prospects won't stink in the NFL.

    Remember...Wills has never played on the left side. Wirfs has only played a little on the left side. Thomas has played there exclusively, but is the worst fit for the Jets' scheme. Becton has played the left side, but he pretty much got by at Louisville because of his size and athleticism. He needs a lot of technique work. He has the highest ceiling of the 4, but also the lowest floor. I'd be willing to bet that Wirfs and Wills will be gone by #11, and probably Becton as well.

    Even though I think Thomas can be a very good LT in the NFL in a man blocking scheme, in the Jets' spread wide zone blocking scheme, he could be a disaster. He doesn't have the lateral agility or speed/quickness that is needed.

    If NFL teams had better OTs and the need wasn't so desperate, I think all 4 of these OTs would probably be mid-to-lower 1st round picks, if not second round picks. They are pushed up because of their potential and the desperation of NFL teams.
     
    #15 NCJetsfan, Apr 14, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2020
  16. K'OB

    K'OB Well-Known Member

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    It is funny that the closer we get to draft night that the stock of the 4 OT's are getting lower, from a high of all 4 are going to be unmissable talents, well 3 and then the late arrival of Becton on combine night.

    Thomas was the name everybody wanted for a 12 month and now he is nearly looked at like a bit of shit on your shoe.
    Wills nobody seems to want at all
    Wirfs seems a solid choice still
    Becton could be a high or bust a 50%er

    Maybe we should just go WR after all lol
     
    #16 K'OB, Apr 14, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2020
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  17. ConcordeChops

    ConcordeChops 2018 International Poster Award Winner

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    At the very least the OT4 will be there for the taking given all the QB trade ups that happens on Draft night.

    I’m happy with OT4 or WR1. For the first time in ages, I don’t think I’ll be screaming at the TV.
     
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  18. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, after reading Kurt's comments regarding how the OTs aren't actually slam dunks as they've been made out to be, I stepped back and reassessed. If JD believes that one of the Ots that might be still there at 11 is what he wants, I'm fine with that, but the more I look at things I'm thinking Lamb or Jeudy, possibly Ruggs, although Ruggs might come as the result of a trade back scenario which would make it more enticing.

    However it shakes out I think Douglas will find a couple OL and WRs in the draft.
     
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  19. LAJet

    LAJet Well-Known Member

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    Oh how true it is K’OB. Probably not remotely representative of what eventually will be done in the draft anyway. A lot of this churning is IMO aided by the media flood of conflicting information. The more information we get the more it changes the strength and weaknesses of players back and forth. I think what we hear and read from the media is often the writers opinion with some far more knowledgeable than others. I suspect that above all of it there is a whole bunch of smoke coming from the 32 GMs trying to desperately disguise their respective selections.
    I’m in heaven knowing JD is not going to fall for any of that shit. He knows his priorities and will not over reach for any position. I trust him to assess if there is an OT meritorious of the 11 pick, or a WR depending on how the cards fall. If we get an OT that anchors the RT/LT position for the next 10 years, improving our dreadful running game and pass game, that would be awesome. If we land a premier WR that can really open up the passing game I’ll be happy as hell as well. If we get both, it will be a home run. Long time coming. I’m a lot less stressed about who we get at 11, all I want is a real difference maker in a position of need, and a lot more nervous about our ability to hit gold with the next 3-4 picks.
     
  20. GWjet

    GWjet Well-Known Member

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    My plan would be if all 4 are gone I try to trade out.

    If I can’t I take Jeudy or Lamb. Then come the second round draft Prince Wanogho he’s a raw so we may have to start the season with Fant or you better resign Beachum or trade for Williams
     

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