pretty much. usually 2-3 years you'll know. sometimes after 1 year you'll have a good idea. but 2 games in you can't judge anything
Personally, I think OL was a bigger need than DL, but I did not and still won’t complain about taking a pass rusher in the first round. It’s a premium position. That being said, I don’t like to see a first round pick not get on the field regardless of position (other than maybe a QB who you want to sit). If you’re taking a player in the first round, he should be pretty damn good, and should certainly be good enough to get on the field. We’ll see how the rest of the year goes, and we can reserve judgment on McDonald for later in the year…but sure right now when our OL is a disaster and we have more DEs than we can dress for game day, it doesn’t look great.
I totally disagree with this notion that you can't grade a draft until you see how players turn out years down the line. Draft picks happen with the data available at the time the picks are made. Sure, it's impossible to know for sure how someone will turn out in advance. But it's perfectly possible to know the following things for sure at the time: The importance of various positions in the current version of the NFL. The depth at a given position already on the team. The weaknesses at given positions on the team. The effect age of draft pick has on his likelihood of succeeding (older is worse, for obvious reasons). Consensus views on roughly how high a guy should be drafted. The McDonald pick went against the grain on every single one of those knowable things. Offense is more important than defense and WR is more important than edge rusher (slightly). We were extremely deep at edge and thin at WR. McDonald was an old prospect. He was generally considered to be a later pick than where we selected him. You don't need to wait to see how his entire career plays out to realize we were morons for selecting him. We're a team that just signed an aging RB when the rest of the league has realized it's asinine to do so for years. You really find it so hard to believe we fucked up a draft pick for the 8000th time?
there was no o-line on the board worth taking though. people tend to miss that. even the one that was "stolen" form us 1 pick before hasn't seen the field and was beat out in camp by 2 journeyman OTs and hasn't seen the field yet. people act like JD has ignored the o-line. this isn't mac where he signed 0 top free agents and drafted no o-line in the 1st 3 rounds his whole time here. JD has used 2 1sts and a 2nd on oline, plus multiple later round picks. He also signed 2 top free agent lineman (mcgovern and tomlinson)
I disagree. I don't think people act like JD ignored the O-line. I just think most of the critics evaluate offensive line play based on performance in games vs. "effort" put into drafting. There's no doubt JD has put some effort into trying to improve one of the worst O-lines in the league. There's no doubt JD has not been successful. This O-line is one of the worst performing in the NFL this season-- and this is the starters! This is "the plan". Hate to quote Yoda but it is relevant to this topic: "Do or do not. There is no try.”
I agree. I think the reality is that the GMs for the most part don't have better betting average than some of the knowledgeable draft analysts, like say Connor Rodgers. They may get some extra info by looking at the medicals and stuff like that, but ultimately guys like Connor have access to 90+% of data now days, which is College tape, combine, pro days, etc... So when last year we had a good draft, pretty much everyone graded it high. Why? Because GW was consensus #1 WR. Sauce was consensus #1 CB. JJ was a consensus high Edge prospect. Breece was consensus #1 RB. And Ruckert was highly rated by everyone TE. Many had him as a 2nd round prospect. So, when the Jets got all of these guys in one draft, and big credit to JD for doing that, everyone said the Jets had a great draft. And guess what? It was a great draft! This year McD was rated by pretty much everyone as a second round talent, maybe end of 1st round. He wasn't the need of the team. Older prospect. A bit of a reach. He may turn out to be good, but there were good WRs and similarly talented Tackles that could have been had (especially If JD cared enough about the position and waited GB out without giving up pick swap). So yeah, you don't know for sure, but it certainly is reasonable to say it wasn't the best choice under the circumstances even at the time of the draft.
Remember everyone’s love for Kyle Hamilton 2022? S who could be a top 10 pick… the Ravens got him and guess what they did… they sat him for a year. Good teams take top talent.
What a huge surprise. This McDonald pick makes less and less sense as the season progresses; and it didn't make a hell of a lot sense when he was selected. Unless, maybe the Jets brass knew the NFL 2023 script during the draft and had no intentions of selecting a WR in Round 1, who would in all likelihood have told the team to go fuck themselves after a third of a season.
