Valid points but the 75% of Deebo's production thing is just the average outcome, it's fairly likely the guy taken at 10 will become a pro-bowl level receiver before long. If that happens it's a crazy high upside outcome because you have an elite player who's cheap for 5 years. We're talking about drafting either the 1st or 2nd best receiving prospect in the draft at 10, idk why everyone's acting like this would just be some guy. The 1st or 2nd prospect taken at a position has a really good chance of being really good.
Is there any data to back up the claim that it’s “likely” a WR drafted tenth overall will be a pro bowler? I’m saying this as a guy that thinks all three of Williams, Wilson and London could be star receivers but I’m wondering if this is an opinion or if it’s accurate.
Well I said fairly likely. The chances of any first round WR becoming a pro bowler over the last 25 years is about 30%, but that has been trending higher in recent years as more college teams have favored the passing game and the % is also likely higher for WRs taken in the top 10 instead of all first round WRs. The evidence for that is here: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...e-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft There's also this, courtesy of KY Jets Fan: And again these numbers are likely better for top 10 WRs than for all first round WRs. So the average first round WR over the last 10 years averages a better first season than our current 2nd best receiver has averaged over his entire career.
I’m reading that tweet as the WRs over the last two drafts - which were universally considered very good drafts unlike this one- completely skewed the averages.
The last two years have included 11 of the 36 WRs in the sample, they're skewing the averages a bit but not a lot I wouldn't say.
pretty much exactly what I thought and explained yesterday. I will say it's possible both are true that we did offer 10 as well as value to the 13th pick. 10OA for deebo and 93 is pretty close to 13th OA value
Those 2 years are about 30% above average for yards and 25% above average on catches. I believe if you extrapolate those years were averaging closer to 43 rec and 550 yds. By all accounts, the last two years were significantly better than this year. I think we need to temper our expectations for any WR taken in the 1st
We aren't getting Samual for two seconds. It may be what he's worth, but The 49ers have no reason or desire to trade Samuel. If JD wants Deebo he's going to have to field a more aggressive offer, like 10 and 38.
the issue is it doesn't always account for variables like injuries or QB play or need. for instance any rookie WR who goes to KC or GB this year has the best chance to put up big numbers. moore played in 10 games (not counting the one he was knocked out early in) and over a seaosn hsi total would have been 914 yards 73 catches 8.5 TDs not too bad also the fact he had a rookie QB and he had a slow start lowered it. if you take out the 1st few weeks and count the 7 games he played in a row (which included 4 different QBs throwing him the ball) his season numbers would average to 1146 yards, 85 catches 12 TDs. those are pro bowl numbers so stats without context don't really tell the whole story. moore was a top 10 WR in the NFL for a 6 game stretch then got hurt
There are many many variables. We could do picks 1-16 we could do WRs over 6’. We could make up all sorts of variables…. I’m suggesting that if we remove the variable of WRs drafted in 2021 and 2022 it swings the averages into a much more pedestrian realm. The original tweeter already pointed out how spectacular the last 2 drafts have been. I’m simply adjusting the “averages” to reflect those 2 drafts. So here’s your context: Sans the last 2 years, WRs picked in the 1st rd put up pedestrian numbers their 1st year on avg
Is it pedestrian numbers relative to our WRs though? Our 2nd best WR, Corey Davis, averages 660 receiving yards per year over his career. Even if we got an average first round WR he'd probably instantly be our 2nd best WR, and if he improves at all after his first year he'll probably be quite a bit better than Davis.
but we aren't reliant on the rookie. we have moore, davis, and berrios. we have a solid core. the rookie for us putting up 600 yards is enough
I humbly disagree. The WRs #s in yr 1 are below Davis’. If we say the a rookie WR will get better then we have to also acknowledge a healthy Davis’ numbers are much higher than his average.
I don’t disagree. I’m simply pointing out, based on the tweet, WRs taken in the 1st sans 2021 and 2020 have pedestrian #s yr 1. I make 0 claims past that
When was the last time that any Jets fan felt that late in a game with a chance to win the game drive that we had the personnel that gave us confidence that would happen? Contrasting that to how many times did we sit and watch helplessly knowing that Brady, or some other good QB and set of receivers were CERTAIN to win the game on such a drive against us. I'd say the most recent might've been Favre when he was healthy. Before him Vinny before he got hurt. I'll stretch a bit and include Pennington when he was 100%. Add up all those games and maybe you get about 1.5 - 2 seasons in the last 30 years. Yeah, we NEED a big time WR.
