Whom would you draft at #4

Here's a pretty in depth breakdown:

https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com...r-siss-nfl-wins-above-replacement-war-metric/

Football WAR has been calculated by a few different analytics sites but the basics of how it's calculated should be roughly the same.

If you just want the numerical values per position here they are (note these are for a top 10 player at that position vs. an average player, or how many wins a top 10 player at that position gets you over a full season relative to an average player all else equal):

QB 2.5134
WR 0.701
S 0.6039
CB 0.5172
TE 0.3426
IOL 0.3212
OT 0.2968
ED 0.2783
LB 0.2762
RB 0.2166
DI 0.1868

I mostly agree with this other than thinking they have EDGE too low. I might also put CB above S but that's nitpicking.

 

We need playmakers on both sides of the ball. Rams and Bucks have awesome OL/DL and KC line improved tremendously this year. Bengals O line is the weak link and will be exposed by a great D in the SB.
We need playmakers no doubt, across the board. There is no Chase or WR close to him worth that high of a pick in the first round. May be at ten, but sure as hell not at 4.
CB is a also a high value pick, Edge and OT are as well, and Becton is a big unknown right now adding more weakness to the position. So there are massive needs in addition to WR, an area we improved a lot with Davis and Moore. Our D is in major need of upgrade with some no shit play makers. Short of it is we should not reach for a pick, just because of the WR need. Moving down is an option. Strike where it makes sense at the right value, doubling up if necessary.

 

I may be mistaken, but I believe that quite a few OTs have come into the league, played OG their rookie season then kicked out to OT. I don't remember anyone coming into the league and starting at OT and then moving to OG. I believe that the ones who are or have been able to successfully make that move or transition are/were able to do that because they had experience playing both OG and OT in college or have the right skills, size, and mindset to be able to do that. They were always looked at as being an OT, but were played at OG to get their feet wet, get them some experience, and not risk the QB. Then there are those who played OT exclusively or mainly in college, but were viewed as only being able to play OG in the NFL due to short arms, lack of lateral mobility, foot speed, etc..

 

Offensive tackles get kicked into the guard spot in the NFL when they suck at playing tackle all the time. The most (in)famous one is Robert Gallery.

Alex Leatherwood did it this year in the middle of his rookie year. Ereck Flowers, Kelechi Osemele, and I’m sure there’s more. Scherff did it immediately in the transition.

 

I'm of two minds about Ridley but I'm mostly a pass. If we give up anything more than a 2nd round pick I'd be pretty pissed considering that good WR talent will be there for us at the top of the 2nd. Anybody saying we should give up #10 is off their rocker because I don't pick a WR in the top 10 unless I project them to be a Ridley like player (dooesn't always pan out that way but still).

 

I agree it underrates EDGE but it does line up with salaries in some instances. QB's, WR's and CB's all make a boatload of money. RB's don't make much, nor do most interior DL.

I don't think NFL teams are that smart with analytics. About a third of the teams in the league still think a running game and defense is how you win. Teams also just recently realized they should go for it on 4th down a lot more often, despite the data being clear on that for 10+ years. I think you may be underrating how slow to adapt a lot of teams are due to inertia. We should know this firsthand with the Jets, a team that has been 5+ years behind every league trend for as long as I can remember.

 

Short arms is another reason.

 

We really need a plan regarding Becton. Im in on getting that needed OL help. We need to just solidify that OL once and for all.

 

Metcalf is probably the only player I'd consider giving up 10 for in a trade, and even then I'd be hesitant due to the contract implications. Ridley is good, but dude has some personal stuff to sort out before any team would be willing to pay with a high draft pick for him.

 

New espn+ mock has us

Ikey
Garrett Wilson
Myaji Sanders
McBride

 

I wouldn't be upset with Ikem at 4. Hard to argue with beefing up the line, especially if he has OG/OT flexibility. The case becomes stronger for an him at 4 if Moses is not resigned and or they don't sign a new starting RG in free agency. But let's say they do get Moses back and they sign a starting RG (both of which I hope they do), the case weakens, but still wouldn't be a bad choice.

 

If you think about the number of injuries to the OL last year and the uncertainty of Becton I think is a safe bet they want to clearly upgrade the position for the long term. The question is where to go with the 4th pick. I suspect pass rusher is 1 and OT is 2 depending on how the board falls. If the two top pass rushers are gone Ikem has a real shot at 4. But if KT is there at 4 that’s the pick.

 

Two offensive picks in the first round implies to me KT was gone at number 4.

 

This thread is as good as any to post this interesting breakdown of positions taken since 2017.

 

I can see I’m on the minority side here, but I’d be upset if those were the choices in front of us and we passed on Kyle Hamilton. It’s not that I hate Ickey. I just think Kyle is a perennial All-Pro and I don’t think you can pass on players like that. Yes, we have needs on OL, but this guy could shape the defense for the next 10 years.

 

Also, total props for thread title grammar!

 

probs

 

Defense wins championships!