For the record, if Matsuzaka signs with anyone but the Yankees, Mariners, or (longshot) Dodgers, it would be the biggest surprise in the history of baseball free agency.
It's not a gyroball, and no they won't. He faced the MLB traveling all star team and was outstanding. The posting fee is a silent auction, so all it takes is one team to go overboard, say $60 million, and he's theirs. I think in the end that team will be the Red Sox. With Lucchino looking to take more power after this disasterous season, I think they will just make a ridiculous bid and win his rights. Then they can sign him to a reasonable deal. The extra marketing revenue alone is enough to make it worth the $60 million, plus the fact that he's a 26 year old potential ace.
He's not a free agent. Each team gets one chance to make a secret bid for his rights. Whoever goes the highest wins.
I didn't say he was a free agent. I said it would be the biggest surprise in baseball free agency, meaning the free agency era of baseball, and it would be. The Yankees and Mariners are pretty much the only two teams that are going to make a major push. You give the Dodgers a fighting chance because they have some ties to Japan still, but it will be one of the two. Then again, if a team like the Sox does actually make a commitment to pay $120M+ for him, they will not see any competition from the Yanks, M's or Dodgers. Those teams will be too busy laughing. Even the Yankees have to think long and hard about making a commitment to him in the $70-75M range.
That's it the Royals will spend more then their entire payroll for this guy. BTW Could you imagine if Pollad decided to open up his checkbook for once. Imagien the pitching staff in Minnesota?
The Red Sox and the Yankees are both going to make tremendous bids on Matsuzaka and the jealous loser will start a media war--he is gonna be the next Jose Contreras.
You can subtract the posting fee as far as the cost. It would be a one time fee, and most likely easily recovered with new revenue from Japan. Past Japanese players, the top flight ones, IE Ichiro, Nomo, the Matsuis, got about $5-$5.5 million a year. Hardly a contract that would be laughed at. First year salaries- Nomo- $2.1 million Irabu- $2.3 million Hasegawa- $.5 million Sazaki- $4 million Ishii- $.9 million Ichiro- $5.6 million K. Matsui- $5 million H. Matsui- $6 million Iguchi- $2.3 million Johjima- $5.4 million So the highest salary for notable Japanese players in their first year was Hideki Matsui, who was probably the most hyped/famous player from Japan, and he only got $6 million. Even the next two years it went to $7 and $8 million. This is not a deal that would break the bank.
For those of you curious about the gyroball. He does not throw it. He throws a Japanese pitch called the shuuto, which actually breaks the opposite direction of a gyroball. There was an article a while back that claimed the two pitches were the same, but they're not. This plus the fact that he uses double spin mechanics led to the rumor he threw it. I've done a lot of research on the gyroball, as I am a pitcher and wanted to learn the the pitch. It is thrown like a football sort of. The motion is similar to a screwball, but it has the same spin as a slider, since it rolls off the outside of the fingers. It's incredibly helpful to use the double spin mechanics that Matsuzaka uses but not completely necessary. The arm motion is this: Notice the pronation of the wrist, but a counter-clockwise spin. There is one pitcher (that I know of) who actually throws one, a kid who I believe is now in college named Joey Niezer. I actually talked to him on MySpace, and he confirmed that he throws one and tried to tell me how, but it's a little hard to do over emails. There is a video of him throwing one in high school. It's not the best video, but you can see a decent amount of the break. His coach was quoted as saying, "They move so much. We're used to seeing curveballs that break 6 inches if they're good. A splitter that dives a foot. This thing breaks a foot if you're not good at it. I've seen Joey's break 3 feet. It takes a left turn and heads to the dugout." The only other possible guy that has thrown one is if you remember a few years back when RA Dickey was throwing what announcers started calling "The Thing." I don't have a video of his motion, but the movement looked like it was a possible gyroball.
No team ever paid $60M dollars just to have the opportunity to talk to any of the players you listed. Just take Ichiro. The Mariners have a Japanese owner with major connections over there. He bid $13M and then signed Ichiro for $5M per year. You're talking about posting $60M for the best pitcher of this generation in Japan. He's going to get $10-$12M easily. Boras will demand it, and the Sox will give it to him because they're not just going to throw away $60M. Plus, unlike the Mariners and Yankees, the Sox don't have strong ties to Japan. This is all moot though, because no one is going to bid $60M. The winning team might approach $30M. That will probably be the Mariners or Yankees, who have spent a lot of time and a lot of money building strong relationships with the Japanese, because that means a lot with Japan.
I don't think you get the process completely. Relationships have nothing to do with it whatsoever. Whichever team makes the highest bid gets negotiating rights. If that team is unable to sign the player to an agreeable contract, the player goes back to Japan, and the team gets the posting fee back. Boras can demand all he wants, but the ball is TOTALLY in the team's court. His two favorite tactics, the mystery team to drive up the price and waiting until all the other options are gone aren't going to work in this case. If he doesn't agree to the contract, Matsuzaka goes back to Japan, very unhappy, and more than likely fires him.
To be honest, I never really looked into the posting rules if a team can't sign a player because it's seen as almost impossible, but when a price like $60M would be thrown around, then the negotiations would heat up. But again, the highest bid is going to be in the $25-$30M range, likely to the Yankees or Mariners, who have put the most money into their international markets. If the Sox end up blowing these teams out of the water and win the rights, then good for them, but I, nor anyone, can see it happening.
