Because the league is pushing for the removal of the KO, the odds are stacked against KRs. You're right about gambling--you might as well play the lotto. Of the total Kicks actually returned, what percentage of them do you think go for TDs?
exactly why we should give powell a shot ... he accelerates well and rarely fumbles brad smith and joe mcknight didnt have great straight line speed but they hit many home runs as KRs
Hill sucks; let me get that out the way before I'm accused of being an apologist for what I'm about to say next. That said, the WCO is just absolutely the worst scheme he could be in considering his skill set and rawness as a WR. It involves precise route running, ability to run after the catch, route adjustments, being strong over the middle…etc. all things Hill struggle with. Ideally, he would be best suited in a scheme that incorporated a vertical passing attack through play acting off of a power running game. The kind a scheme Sparano tried and gloriously failed to implement. You put him on a team with that kind of scheme he'd be a lot more effective or I should say suck less.
I completely disagree that Hill is the better athlete. Hill is taller and faster, that's it. Jeffrey has far better body control and coordination and would probably dominate Hill in a one on one basketball game.
The only thing worse than cutting Hill and him catching on with another team, would be cutting Hill and him catching on with a team that uses the West Coast Offense.
Decker, Kerley and Nelson are locks in my opinion. Saunders is also a lock, provided he is healthy. Hill is most difficult to assess, as none of us have that daily access to view what progress he has made (or hasn't made). I think he makes the team. If he ends up cut, i'm thinking it would be mid season before they'd throw in the towel on him. That leaves a tough decision between Salas, or a special teams contributor. Ford, Hakim, and Enunwa all have been receiving a lot of ST looks. I don't think kick returner alone will be enough. Ford and Hakim have been seeing time as Gunners. Enunwa, with his size and physicality, is seeing ST assignments usually reserved for Safeties and TE's. He's coming along quite well on that front. All things considered, i believe Ford will win that last spot if they only keep 6 as of today. He offers the most to the team between offensive speed and ST. If he can show something at Punt Gunner as well, that would make the decision easier. On the flip side, if we see Salas making an appearance on ST against the Giants, that would say a lot to me regarding his chances to make the team. He hasn't seen any real time there yet. It's also possible they keep 7, at the expense of one of the RB's, and only carrying 2 QB's. Enunwa of course would go to the PS in this event.
Hill is not being cut. Doesn't matter how much we dislike him. Coaches rave about him. SO take that out of the way. Decker, Kerley, Nelson, Hill, Saunders all locks. There's a 6th spot open. Clyde Gates, Jacoby Ford, Greg Salas are candidates. (I like Hakim and Enunwa but they're practice squad candidates and haven't shown as much as these 3) Clyde gates will be it. I don't want it...but it's going to happen. Marty and Sanjay were gushing about Clyde just as much as Hill. The fact Clyde scored that 17 yd TD solidifies his spot. He was the highest on the depth chart of those 3 to begin as well. I love Ford's speed but to keep a spot for a KR is ridiculous. Clyde can also KR which, once again, solidifies his spot. I'm praying they open a 7th spot for Greg Salas because I think he's the best of those 3. But every time a reporter brings up Salas, the coaches quickly switch to talking about Hill and Clyde. Salas is also a slot receiver (and Kerley and Saunders are already amongst the 6 WRs)
Let's just say that Ford makes the team because he's decent at WR and can KR, as well as maybe be part of coverage on ST, like whoever suggested a few posts ago. Who is next in line on ST & KR if Ford goes down due to injury? Isn't this very possible, as he's had injuries in the past? That's why keeping Ford at the expense of Hill or Salas just isn't worth it. I would keep Ford over Gates, but I would just as soon cut them both. There's a good chance that, by next year, Nelson/Hill/Ford/Gates are ALL not on the team. So, I prefer keeping the guy with the most upside, which is Hill.
I guess it all depends on how much emphasis the ST coordinator wants on the return game. If its an after thought, there are dudes on this team that have done it before who can fair catch away 90% of the time, so no theres need to carry a specialist. WR play matters more in this scenario, any KR chops is just gravy. But if they see field position after a kickoff as a vital addition to their O, they WILL give a specialist that gets the job done the best a roster spot, even if that means leaving a pure WR off the the team. I'm not sure anybody's upside is enough to save them a spot outside of the rookie class, I'm thinking it'll all come down to "Who is the best WR right NOW? who will best serve our QB when he's out on the field?" I'm of the mind that the accounts of Hills upside leading to an automatic roster spot is vastly overrated at this point and that he'll have to produce some rather clear results of his progress on the field if he's ever gonna stick around… but thats been discussed ad nauseam. The rest will get about as much as the coaches think they can provide in September.
Salas will probably never be a stud, but he doesn't have to be. A good route runner with decent quickness, the ability to evade contact and excellent hands is a really good player to have.
I'd wouldn't mind Belichick falling in love with Hill's intangibles and wasting 2 years on him like Rex did. May be the last nail in Brady's coffin.
Dude the Pats would turn him into the next Randy Moss. Just like they made Chris Baker into Mark Bavaro.
It's a very low percentage, however the average starting position after a kickoff in the NFL last year was the 22.2 yard line. This argues that settling for a TB is giving up an incremental advantage in the overall field position game. The risk of bringing the ball out is that you might only make the 13 or so before excellent kick coverage pins you down. The upside is that you might get a significantly better field position than the 20 yard line. Taking the TB caps your starting field position. Returning kicks that don't go out the back of the end zone is a calculated risk in which you are gambling maybe 7 yards against a potential return that could be a really positive gain for the team. Here's an interesting study of the effects of field position on the probability of who will score the next TD, the team with the ball or the team defending (meaning TD of any kind - most often a TD by the defending team's offense after a change of possession.) http://chenlab.ece.cornell.edu/people/Andy/footballDatamining.pdf What this seems to suggest is that with a 1st down at the 13 yard line the probability is even that the team with the ball will score the next TD. At the 20 the team with the ball has about .3 expected points more than the team defending. At the 33 the team with the ball has about 1 expected point more than the defense. At the 50 it goes to 2 expected points more. So the actual value of being on 20 vs being on the 13 is minimal, about a tenth of a FG. However if you can get the ball out past the 33 the point differential goes up dramatically. Starting 10 drives on the 33 is worth 10 pts more than starting 10 drives on the 13. It's worth 7 points more than starting 10 drives on the 20. The catch here though is that when you run it out you might well get caught on the 13 but you're much more likely to get out to the 20 or beyond. Your safe 3 point differential from starting every drive on the 20 is actually a cap on overall offensive proficiency. You don't ever get the big return that significantly increases your point expectations. Another way of looking at this is that starting at your own 20 is lousy field position in terms of giving you a positive result on the drive. In that situation it makes sense to go for the upside as long as you're not inept at returning kicks, particularly in the ball safety department. The #2 team in kickoff returns attempted last year was the Minnesota Vikings who had 66 returns with their excellent returner Cordarelle Patterson averaging 32.4 yards a return on 43 returns. They also ran the ball out 23 more times, much less successfully, when Patterson was not the ball carrier. They were committed to bringing the ball out of the end zone and avoiding touch backs. They were 23rd in passing yards per game as all 3 of the QB's they tried in 2013 had issues of one sort or another. They were 8th in rushing yards. They wound up in 14th place overall in scoring despite being a below average passing team. The run game was very good but had only 423 carries to the 590 dropbacks their QB's attempted. Why did they do so well? Because Cordarelle Patterson added on average nearly a point to their expectations on his 43 returns. That's 41-42 points that him running the ball out of the end zone produced over the course of the season. 14 of those came in the form of his 2 TD returns. The #1 team in kickoff returns attempted , the Chicago Bears with 70 returns, had no problems with their QB's as Jay Cutler was more than adequately replaced by Josh McCown for the games he was injured. The Bears ran the ball out of the end zone 70 times last year trying to get better field position for the offense. They of course had the great Devin Hester as their returner but they had 18 returns out of the end zone by 5 other guys. They weren't going to take a knee just because the opponent had kicked away from Hester. Again, the other guys were not very successful at running the ball out. The Bears wound up #2 in the NFL in points scored last year, tied with the New England Patriots. They were 5th in passing yards per game and 16th in rushing yards but they finished 2nd in points scored. Why? Because they tried to create value on most kickoff returns. They failed when their great returner didn't have the ball but that didn't stop them from running it out anyway. If you want to score more points than your offensive stats suggest you should the best way to do that is to get a good KR and have him take the ball out of the end zone as often as possible. Have the whole kick return unit anticipate a return on every kick and run the ball out no matter who winds up with it. No other team in the NFL had more than 54 returns last year. The team with the third most return yards was the Kansas City Chiefs and they finished 6th overall in scoring despite ranking 24th in passing yards and 10th in rushing yards.
