It was a 43 yard FG at the end so they kicked from the 26 or so. With O'Brien's consistency from that range the most important variable was probably where he got to kick from. In the end the kick had more than enough distance, O'Brien just missed it wide left. He missed the FG that would have won the game as time expired. For that we get a career-defining moment, not for O'Brien but for Herm. Because his FG kicker missed a FG that he hits 85% of the time.
Distance is inconsequential. His consistency? He barely reached that range in 2004 with consistency. Or am I wrong? I'm not talking about overall average from 41-50 for a number of years, not talking about kicks that fit into 41-50 by a few inches... I am talking about specific examples of Brien kicking over 40 yards in that season. It takes more than a strange but average STs kicker to make it worth your season to put your chips in and gamble with a guy like Brien from that range. Savvy?
O'Brien made 10 of 11 from 40-49 that year in the regular season. I don't know how many from each range but it would be unusual to punt from the 32 so I am guessing it was a pretty even distribution. O'Brien hit a 42 yard FG against the Chargers and went wide right from 33 in that game. He was 1 for 2 against the Steelers including a 42 yard FG and a 48 yard miss leading up to the kick at the end of the game. He had a good chance to hit that kick and apparently a good chance to miss a shorter one if that's what evolved. In retrospect I have no problem at all with Herm playing that last series the way he did. The running game did not get decent gains and his QB was hurt. I think you go with the percentage play at that point
He made 10 of 11 from 40-49. Most would think his %was inconsequential r. I don't. His percentage matters during the 2004 season. If you can't share your numbers, then your argument is invalid.
Based on what O'Brien had done in 2004 Herm had every reason to believe he could hit a 43 yard FG. You can argue tactics. It might well have been better for the Jets to line up a 40 yarder from the left hashmark instead of 43 from the center. That would have given them the opportunity to call timeout on a bobbled snap and do it again. However since O'Brien missed wide left I think the positional argument is mooted and he clearly had the distance on the kick.
there was some talk at the time that kicking toward that end of the stadium in Pitt presented problems at 40+ yards. At least that is my recollection. Of course, It wasn't like the kick wa short.
Well, he was 1 for 2 from 50+ that year. I'm not sure what facts we can come up with that are going to make 10 of 11 from 40-49 look bad in the context of a 43 yard FG. If he hadn't hit a kick from outside 42 I guess you could say that Herm was asking him to make a kick he hadn't made all year. He did make at least one long kick that year though. It is true that the Steelers rarely tried to win games on long kicks in that stadium. It's possible that the chances are just so low at that end that it was a bad move no matter what. But I don't see the Jets having a lot of options in the situation they were in. The Steelers were stacking the box and stopping the run on the last couple of drives.
The Steelers were giving the Jets, and Herm, the worst possible scenario. They made him choose between a short-ranged quarterback and a short-ranged kicker. Which one do you throw into the fire? Herm made the easy choice. Instead of the ballsy one. That's the type of coach he was.
What if you thought your QB was incapable of completing anything other than a screen pass in that end of the stadium by that point in the season? Herm was on the other end of a game-breaking play once in his life. If he didn't think Chad could throw the ball effectively in those winds what was he supposed to do? If he hands the ball to Curtis again then he has no control of when the whistle will blow. He got 3 yards total out of the last two carries. He's on the road and the whistles are not going to be friendly. I think the only other defensible option at that point was to kick the FG on 3rd and 7 from the left hashmark at 40 yards. That's the other option that looks like it might have had an equal or better chance of success. In retrospect given what we know now about Chad's arm I think expecting him to complete a pass in January in Pittsburgh in the windy end of the stadium was just begging for a disaster. Just remember Chad was not the same after coming back from the mid-season injury. He threw 6 picks in 5 games in late November and December and he had already been picked off by the Steelers once despite not throwing downfield all that much. I think Herm and Hackett knew they had a very limited QB and went with their best shot and O'Brien just couldn't hit the FG.
Maybe I would have implored my GM to look for another answer at quarterback the next season instead of trying to cover up my bad decision making of forcing the short-legged kicker that I put in a losing situation the previous post season to be my next golden parachute by drafting a kicker in round two. I'm starting to understand why Bradway sux so much all of a sudden. There have been plenty of ex-vet NFL players that have sucked as coaches. Most of them had a far better coaching pedigree than Herm, too. I could go on about that, but I'll save it for later when it has more impact. He didn't have to make Chad throw the ball. The threat of it would have been nice, though. Instead, he pussied the team out and kneeled. True. However, that was the perfect situation to run a draw. Hackett had been calling them for years in the wrong situations. That was one of the few times it was right. Linebackers try to take a draw down ASAP because they don't know what kind of help they have behind them. That would have been a ballsier move than taking the knee. I was hoping just like you that he would heal. Maybe if we were hard-nosed football men in position of authority, we would have made better decisions than the powers that were in charge. Instead, we were just a couple of fans. Retrospect is all you and I have. In retrospect, Chad was never the same after he dove for a first down against the Bills early in the 2004 season. Now that we're talking hindsight. Brien. Not O'Brien. Anyway, there were other options. The coaching staff was so obtuse that they couldn't figure that out. Hindsight again, but that's what us fans have. Just like the mistake that was hiring an upjumped almost-scout that gave great sermons and didn't really know how to coach himself out of a paper bag.
I agree. We potentially have a great D-line developing, and our secondary has been well-coached and will perform reasonably well despite the loss of our HOF'er. Our problem is our offense. Third system in three years, and an unsettled QB situation. However I am very happy to have a legit coordinator installing a system that makes sense for our personnel. Mornhinweg was fully on board with Geno being drafted, and is confident in his ability to thrive in it. I won't happen overnight, and this year will set us up for 2014 but I don't expect a disaster season, and I don't expect fans to turn on Geno or Idzik. This thread is getting more attention than it should.
Brien missed 2 makeable kicks and the Jolley trade was a good one. we moved down, got the player we wanted anyway and got extra picks which led to drafting a good safety in Kerry Rhodes. You can bash the decision making as far as who they took but the trade itself was a good one.
The trade was only good if you consider it from the angle that the Jets were looking to waste a 1st round pick on a kicker and instead they made a trade to waste a 2nd round pick on a kicker. Do you know how different the Mangini era is if the Jets take Heath Miller on the 26 instead of trading for somebody else's failed TE and using the pick they got in the deal on a kicker? Among other things the Dustin Keller trade up never happens. Jolley was one more year and out of the NFL. I mean who trades a 1st round pick to acquire a player not good enough to play in the NFL?
Heath Miller is nothing special and he has an elite QB throwing him the ball, he wouldn't have been a difference maker for us. Again, you can bash the thinking about evaluating Brien and Miller as 1st rd talents but the trade itself was fine. we moved down 20 spots or so, got Jolley and additional picks. That's a good deal.
We lost our 1st round pick without getting any long-term value in the deal. It was a terrible deal. The Jets could have gotten Sebastian Janikowski and Doug Jolley back from the Raiders and it would have been a terrible deal.
we moved 20 spots back, picking up extra picks and a starting TE. one of those picks was used to move up and acquire Kerry Rhodes who was an excellent safety for us for a few years.
So Kiper's 2014 Big Board just came out and in this "QB rich" class, Bridgewater is #2, Boyd is #21 and Manziel (who will be controversial because of his size and skill set) is #25. Mariotta is 33 and McCarron is 41 - 2nd round picks. So, if the Jets need a QB next year, absent picking 1st or 2nd, they seem to be in the same spot as this year, picking a border line first-second round pick with a choice of 3-4 guys. Someone tell me what makes this QB class so special again and why the Jets should have waited until next year rather than picking Smith and why that would work out better?
The thing that makes 2014 really special is that none of the QB's have played their senior season yet, a few have not played their junior season yet and one has not even played his sophomore season yet. In other words, things always look better before they are complete. Ok, now throw in the revulsion that the media (and NFL) had in 2013 for a bunch of guys who were not named Andrew Luck and the picture is complete. QB's and the NFL draft are as much dominated by animal spirits as the stock market. That doesn't mean there aren't better and worse QB's involved but the stampede from great to terrible doesn't take much to get started. A fact that I think we will be reminded of at some point in the 2013 season.
