14 teams make the playoffs, and only 1 gets the first pick. So the Jets ending up in the playoffs is more likely. But I think the Jets have better odds of finishing in last place in the division than making the playoffs.
Does it change your answer if the question is: Which is more likely: The Jets ending up with the no.1 overall pick or the Jets winning the AFC East division? (i forgot they make it so easy to make the playoffs these days with 7 teams)
Number one pick I think. I can't see how this team would finish ahead of Buffalo unless Allen has a season ending injury. And even still, we could finish behind them. Plus NE and Miami aren't bad either.
I don't see any reason why we can't split with Miami and the Pats. Both of their QB's are nothing to write home about. The Pats do have BB but Miami has a complete unknown. The bills are better than us. The other two teams is debatable.
We haven't beaten the Pats since 2015, and Mac Jones was significantly better than Zach as a rookie. I'd be surprised if we beat the Pats this year. Miami I think we can split against, but they're probably still better than us.
I think the Dolphins have a better team than the Pats. But both teams have issues at QB. I know the Jets haven't beaten the Pats in a long time but I think they have a better shot this year to beat the Pats then they do the Fins. The Bills unless injuries hit should win the division comfortably. Allen is way better then Wilson, Tua, and Jones. The Bills also have the best roster in the division right now.
The Bills are the best for sure, but Tua's a below-average QB, and the Dolphins organization is suspect. The Pats haven't had a good offseason according to the pundits, but I'd take Belichick's football acumen over a bunch of pundits any day of the week.
I think Belichick will struggle without his number 1 weapon, Tom Brady. He took advantage of a first year QB in Wilson but as Mac Jones' warts become more apparent he will settle into mediocrity. The Pats are on the decline. I'm not sold on the Dolphins. If we had a defense last year we would have beat them at least once. Tua is Pennington 2.0. Cover the short stuff and force him to throw deep. He's not good at it. Bills are the class of the AFC East. The next 3 spots are an open competition.