Nightmares for me would be trades up in the draft in the 1st and 2nd rounds. There's enough value at all 4 picks that the Jets should come out with 4 excellent prospects. With the kind of overall talent issues we have we need to hit those 4 picks.
After going through the posts, I can predict with 100% certainty the following will happen: -the Jets will trade #10, #38, and #69 for pick #3 - the Jets pick Kyle Hamilton with pick #3 - the Jets pick Stingly with pick #4 -the Jets pick RB Kyren Williams with their only pick on day 2
As the draft draws closer and FA closes out I my mind has changed a little but not much as to which positions JD should hit. I still say EDGE OL WR are the main targets with TE dropping (he may still take one later) but DT, LB, S, and RB are in play as well. I think the Sauce “rumors” may be a smokescreen. He’s a good CB don’t get me wrong but the Jets have been saying all season they are satisfied with their youth at CB and they have drafted four of them over the last two years. I get they were lower picks but still - so far they have all stuck. I’m going to say EDGE OL WR and DT will be the first four picks (even if there is a trade back) - who and in what order obviously unknown but those are the biggest areas of need. There will be a RB taken at some point - probably fourth round or later. I believe a S is drafted at some point and possibly another WR and OL (that makes two at those positions). I will also say if Muma is on the board at some point during day 2 the Jets will pounce. This is just what I’m interpreting at the moment…..
Unless the Jets have serious concerns with Becton or it isn't looking like Fant will sign an extension, I don't see them taking an OL in the first 4 picks. I think they'll draft a depth OL somewhere in rounds 3-5, but that's it. Our starting unit is set. There's no reason to draft an OL in the first 2 rounds if he isn't going to start or if there isn't any concern about their starters' health.
I have a few... Not drafting at impact positions (WR, ED, CB) with the first four picks would be gross for me. Drafting Travon Walker at #4. I'd rather have Jordan Davis.. I don't really want either though. To be clear. I could list more but I'll stick with those for now.
Drafting Hamilton at #4 is my biggest fear. Unicorn. Generational talent. Blah blah blah. You don't draft Safeties, RBs or TEs in the top 5. Period. Shit, I would even say top 10 for those positions. Also, I think passing up Garrett Wilson at #10 (if he is there) would be another nightmare for me. That dude is a baller.
My two cents. Nightmare selections have a way of changing significantly from draft day to rookie season end. I know conventional wisdom is you don't draft certain positions in the top of round one, particularly in todays NFL, such as RB, TE, Safety etc. QB, Edge, OT, WR and CB are in theory the top value choices. But when is all set and done everything has to relate to best value to the team. Premier or not, if you blow a first round pick you are massively screwed. Thus, I rather get a guy that has a high chance to become a HOF in a non "premium" category than one with high potential but question marks in a premium position. If the top two edge players are gone, it will become interesting to see which way the Jets go, especially if OT has lower immediate priority. To me, if the Jets have to overreach for an Edge at 4 because is a premium position, say Walker if that is the case, versus nailing down the corner or safety position for the next ten years, well that in my opinion would be dumb. Not to mention that in most instances, with all high picks, the expectation is immediate contributor with the potential to become a game changer. So I would use the game changer criteria above position anytime.
TE's and RB's really should be 2nd round picks or later. Safeties are important but back of the 1st round at the earliest. There's too much talent out there at other positions before that. The one exception I might make for a top 10 safety would be a supreme ballhawk. Picks are the best thing a defense has going for them and ballhawk safeties make the QB think harder and play under more pressure.
I know I will take heat from this, my nightmare is drafting Thibs at # 4. I feel like it's 14 years ago when I was one of only a few, on this site, I wanted to stay far away from Vernon Gholston. A terrific pass rusher at OSU, but I noticed he had no heart or love of the game and took plays off. He was a one-trick pony rushing, and didn't work on his craft, may work in College, not the NFL. I saw his entire College career, since I live in Ohio. So fire away, I believe JJ will be the better prospect and is better suited for the Jets.
My nightmare would be taking walker over thibs at 4 if both are available. thibs has much better analytics and production. Some scouts rationalize how walker was used and claim he has more upside. As for me, give me the proven producer with hypothetically 90% of the upside and a much higher floor. at 10, my nightmare would be taking stingley. A big injury risk who did not get much done last season even when he played.
You never know - JD likes building on from the trenches. And besides the starting OL isn’t exactly set. It looks a lot better but they have no idea if Becton comes back to form. What if he doesn’t? They may be able to get by as of now but there’s plenty of room for improvement. I agree a WR is a much more pressing need BUT if the situation arises don’t be surprised if JD pulls the trigger in another OL high - make that an OT high. One could make an argument for another center but if that happens I don’t think it’s Linderbaum I think that would be a mid round selection …
Thats a very interesting take ….I too did not want any part of Gholston. So you’re saying KT reminds you of Gholston? Have you watched any of his games because admittedly I haven’t.
Nobody could be as bad as Gholston, I don't think Thibs is that extreme, but there is a concern. I'm not denying the absolute athletic ability of both players. I just see some similarities in taking off plays and not sure Thibs is devoted to work on his short comings. I hope he proves me wrong. I just don't believe JD will take the risk at # 4, because there is some concern. Vernon took the money and ran, he could careless about being a productive NFL player. I hate players that think they are entitled and don't have to put in the work once they hit it rich in the NFL. I believe heart and desire is important as athletic ability, because you need both to be successful. Not in the top ten, but I'd rather have a player like Karlaftis, who doesn't have the raw ability of Thibs, but plays with his "hair on fire" all the time. I want a clean, exceptional character and potential all pro-player at # 4, I believe Sauce is that player. I don't buy the argument that now that we don't need a CB that high. Hall is a good player, but he's not a playmaker, game changer.
I'm torn on Edge. I like KT a lot, but the rumors concern me a little. I think they're probably started by some team that wants him to drop to them, but they could be valid. I respect your opinion greatly, and that adds to my hesitation with KT. I like Jermaine Johnson, but neither Michael Nania nor Joe Blewitt like Johnson and I also respect both of their opinions greatly. I didn't like Karlaftis initially, because he is somewhat raw, but after watching the YouTube video talking about him, his heart, character, and his background, I couldn't help but to start liking him. I agree that he may not be worthy of the #10 pick at present, but could be within a year. I believe that he will work hard to maximize his ability. In addition, with teams wanting and needing Edges, like QBs and LTs, they get overdrafted. I'd rather take Karlaftis at #10, even if it's reaching a little, rather than lose him to another team and our having to reach for a lower prospect. I also think that if he develops, no one will care if he was overdrafted a little. I also like Arnold Ebiketie a lot. He's a year or so older than the others, but he's very fast, has great bend rounding the edge, but needs to bulk up a little and improve vs the run. I'm going to trust JD, but as far as Edge is concerned, think I would be happy with any of Hutch, KT, Johnson, Karlaftis or Ebiketie. Sauce is a great prospect, no doubt, would make our D better, and is an upgrade over Hall. That said, is he that much of an upgrade that it would be worth missing out on taking a player at another position? I truly don't think that we need to take a CB in this draft. Our CBs are young, hungry and working hard to improve. They still have room for growth. If their level of play doesn't go up a notch, we can always draft a CB next year or the following year. I get that we may never get the opportunity to draft a CB like Sauce again and it would be tough to pass on him. That said, I would hate missing out on the Edge or WR the Jets really wanted because they took Sauce at #4. Both WR and Edge are far more important imo than CB. I think ideally that with our 9 picks the Jets should could come of the draft with a topnotch/elite Edge prospect, the top WR prospect (or their favorite WR), a S, an NT, a 2nd WR, a LB, OL depth, RB, and a TE. I think we need a 2nd WR not only because it's a strong and deep class of WRs, but Jeff Smith doesn't belong on the roster, and Mims may be gone soon if he doesn't show some serious progress in TC. We need to go into the season with 6 viable WRs. Right now we have Moore, Davis and Berrios. That won't cut it. We need a FS to compete with Joyner, who is older and coming off a significant injury, and Lewis Cine is a perfect scheme fit. I'd hate like hell to not be able to take Cine because we took Gardner. We also need an NT. We all know how bad we were vs the run last year. At 3T we have Q, JFM and Marshall. At the other DT spot, we have Rankins, who sucks vs the run, and isn't that great vs the pass) and Shepherd who is a penalty machine. Travis Jones or Phidarian Mathis would be an awesome add in the 2nd round. If we take a WR in the 1st round it would probably be Garrett Wilson. He is pro ready and would help Zach and our offense. I like him, but would really rather take Christian Watson or Burks, and maybe even Pickens as I think we need a big WR as I don't think Davis will be here past next season. If we take Gardner, it could knock us out of taking a 2nd WR rather than knocking us out of taking a S, DT or LB. I think Saleh's comments about the LBs was a smokescreen. I think we need to add a LB in the 3rd or 4th round. Adding Chad Muma, Quay Walker, Troy Andersen or Brandon Smith would improve our LB corps. We also need another RB. Carter didn't stay healthy last season, we know Coleman won't stay healthy, and Johnson is not reliable as a receiver or blocker. Perine isn't a scheme fit, and imo Walter is PS material. We could easily wind up having to start our #3 RB next season or at least rotate him in. That shouldn't be Johnson, Perine or Walter. Finally, in this deep and strong TE class, it would be a shame not to take a TE late. At present, we have Uzomah, Conklin, Griffin, Wesco and Yeboah. Griffin should be cut imo. He's not a blocker and not that reliable as a WR. Wesco is a bottom of the roster player at best. Yeboah might develop into a #3 , or maybe even a #2 TE, but he should be #4 this season. We're going to be running a lot more 12 formations this season. Heaven forbid if Uzomah or Conklin gets injured we'd either have top stop running the 12 formation plays or have the likes of Griffin/Wesco/Yeboah as the 2nd TE and that would undermine the play's success. I like Cade Otton a lot. He's a good and refined route runner, has excellent hands, is smooth, and he's already a pretty good blocker. Another TE we could add late is Jelani Woods. He's huge and has a ton of potential, but is raw. I'd rather put either of them on the field this season than Griffin, Wesco, or Yeboah.
I don't really have one at this point. there are 4 players i'd be ok with at 4. hamilton, ekwonu, hutch, and KT. as far as 10 goes depending on 4 either jermaine johnson or a WR and i'll just trust JDs judgement on the WR
