Decent Breakdown from Jeff Howe of Nesn.Com (Welker Breakdown) .. LY Results Week 2 (six receptions, seven targets, 38 yards, one touchdown) 1. Linebacker Bart Scott, 11 yards 2. Safety Dwight Lowery, eight yards 3. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie, six yards, touchdown 4. Cornerback Kyle Wilson, eight yards 5. Cornerback Kyle Wilson, seven yards 6. Cornerback Drew Coleman, negative-two yards (screen play) Incompletion: Cornerback Darrelle Revis (Welker beat him but dropped the pass as he hit the ground) Note: It's important to note that Welker got a lot of single coverage in this game because Randy Moss was still around, but it was Welker's poorest statistical output against the Jets last season. Also, Welker beat Cromartie clean on an out route when Cromartie was playing the outside position. Cromartie still never put a hand on him. Terrible coverage. Week 13 (seven receptions, seven targets, 80 yards, one touchdown) 1. Safety Brodney Pool, nine yards 2. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie, 14 yards 3. Linebacker Bart Scott, 14 yards 4. Bracket coverage with safety James Ihedigbo lined up over him, eight yards 5. Zone coverage with cornerback Darrelle Revis lined up over him, six yards 6. Cornerback Drew Coleman, 18 yards, touchdown 7. Cornerback Darrelle Revis, 11 yards (screen play) Note: Remember, this was a nightmare of a performance from Cromartie. Brady stayed away from Revis all night and just picked on Cromartie, beating him for two touchdowns. Also, Deion Branch had a great block to take Revis out of that screen play. Playoffs (seven receptions, nine targets, 57 yards, no touchdowns) 1. Cornerback Darrelle Revis, 10 yards 2. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie, seven yards 3. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie, eight yards 4. Cornerback Drew Coleman, nine yards 5. Cornerback Drew Coleman, nine yards 6. Cornerback Drew Coleman, one yard 7. Cornerback Drew Coleman, 13 yards Incompletion 1: Bracket coverage Incompletion 2: Cornerback Drew Coleman Note: Welker was single covered on each of these plays, though there was a free safety roaming that side of the field to help Coleman each time. Brady really didn't challenge the defense when Welker was swarmed by multiple players. Here's a final breakdown of who Welker beat over the course of those three games. Cornerback Drew Coleman: Six receptions, seven targets, 48 yards, one touchdown Cornerback Antonio Cromartie: Four receptions, four targets, 35 yards, one touchdown Linebacker Bart Scott: Two receptions, two targets, 25 yards Cornerback Darrelle Revis: Two receptions, three targets, 21 yards Cornerback Kyle Wilson: Two receptions, two targets, 15 yards Safety Brodney Pool: One reception, one target, nine yards Safety Dwight Lowery: One reception, one target, eight yards Bracket coverage: One reception, two targets, eight yards Zone coverage: One reception, one target, six yards
As others mentioned, it won't be same D look the entire game. Time, Down, and distance factor in big time as well. Overall though, i say take their biggest chain mover out of the equation, and matchup Revis on Welker majority of snaps. Gronkowski will be a challenge, and needs to draw a lot of double teams (E Smith/Wilson). Leave Cro on other split end. Hope Hernandez doesn't suit up, as that creates too many mis-matches to cover up.
Hernandez has been practicing so I expect he will be active. It's a question how effective he will be though, and how many snaps he will see.
