Belichik is not what you think he is. He can be a dominating de facto defensive coordinator in the right circumstances but as a head coach he leaves a lot to be desired. Bruce Arians however is a great HC. Look what he did in Tampa Bay in such a short interval after coming to the Bucs...
you giving arians credit for what? he has a dream team. a great DC, the winninegst QB in history. great o-line. pro bowl RB, 3 #1 WRs, 3 TE 1s, and thats just the offense. the D is loaded with pass rushers too. I could coach that team to the playoffs
Well then it's a remarkably well kept secret; I wonder how HOTJ became party to it? That does not mean that such an "unofficial" agreement wouldn't violate a slew of state and federal laws that, if discovered, would probably result in the NFL losing any semblance of an anti-trust exemption and overcrowding at those federal prisons where the rich guys go.
Let’s put aside Watson’s legal issues for a second and look at this proposed trade package. One report I read said the Texans are looking for 3 first round picks, 2 second round picks, and players. Even if the trade is scaled down say 3 first round picks or 2 first round picks and 2 second round picks….it’s going to be a massive haul to give up. I know Watson is a good QB but let’s take into account that the Dolphins aren’t exactly bathed in talent right now. They have a couple of decent pieces and a lot of recent draft picks that haven’t planned out as of yet. Remember this is a franchise that had Dan Marino for 17 years and couldn’t find a way to build around him and win a Super Bowl. And that team had solid ownership/coaching. This current Dolphins team is owned by a lunatic. And bringing Watson’s legal problems back into the fold would Miami be the place for a young single athlete with multiple accusations from the opposite sex? This trade would be a disaster for the Dolphins - I hope it happens.
The trade wouldn't have been a disaster if they would've drafted well the past two years. In fact, if they hit on more picks I'd go so far as to say it was a great deal and put them near the top of the list of Super Bowl contenders if he can play. But otherwise, you're right. They traded away Tunsil (back to back Pro Bowls) + Fitzpatrick (back to back All-Pro) and they have not drafted a Pro Bowl player aside from those two since Xavien Howard in 2016. They could've been the next version of the Browns that are loaded at most positions with depth and they're not.
Exactly my point. They can’t draft very well to begin with now they’re gonna unload these future first round picks meaning they’re probably going to rely more on FA to build the rest of the team - we all know how well the plan works out. They will cripple the franchise eventually…..not to mention their marketing brand.
The Jets and Fins also suffered from being in Tom Brady's division until recently. It would have taken outstanding management skills to keep up with the Brady-led Pats and the two teams basically started the season with little hope for a decade. That's not an excuse for trying for quick fixes over and over again. Those moves just made both teams worse over time. Some day somebody will give Pro Football the Bill James treatment with easy to understand accurate analysis based on all the numbers. At that point the 90% bad decision rate of teams like the Jets and Fins will become easy to see and easy to avoid.
I believe the Johnsons should have hired a director of football operations to oversee the GM and coaching staff and I'm sure the past practice of having the coach independent of the GM did not help the team win any games. The worst thing I can blame on them in recent decades is the hiring of Gase. Having said that, I don't see the Johnsons involved enough in the day to day operations to point the finger at any specific decisions they've made that have kept the team in the dregs of the NFL. I've called for Bezos to buy the team or anyone with a fresh outlook on owning a team because the absence of change has kept the Jets in the doldrums for way too long. I'm glad there is no Jerry Jones type guy here even though he has seen more success than failure but exactly what is it that Woody Johnson does that causes the Jets to lose games? For that matter, what is it that Steve Ross has done to have the Dolphins lose games? Neither one is signing players.
The thing that's scary about the Jets is that they haven't even found a QB yet. All the errors in motion in recent years have been around finding a QB and then overpaying other positions that just don't matter. When the Jets find the QB they're going to wind up screwing that up also, most likely by overpaying to acquire or keep him and then we're going to be screwed again. The Jets failures are like an onion that makes the eyes water over and over again and there's still a hell of a lot of peeling to go. One of the things the real analyst is going to discover when they look at QB salaries is that there are two categories of SB winning QB's in the overall analysis: 1. Tom Brady. 2. QB's who are good who have not gotten paid yet. The end result of the analysis is likely to be that one of the worst things you can do after winning a Super Bowl is to pay a QB not named Tom Brady a top-tier salary. The analysis is going to show that those deals range from terrible to purely good from a marketing standpoint and whenever the Jets have to make the decision they are going to be following a well-trodden path of doom for the franchise as a whole.
SB winners is a very small sample size, and when Brady wins almost every other one, the sample gets smaller. Needless to say, the Packers have done pretty well paying Rodgers, Saints with Brees, Steelers with Ben before he got washed up, Broncos with Peyton, etc. It's a bad idea idea to pay an average starter like an elite one, but if you have an elite one, you're better off paying him than starting over and likely going from good to bad.
The only QB there that won a SB after he got paid was Peyton with Denver and he wasn't the reason they won that year.
As I said, using SB winners as the basis for your analysis is a bad idea because the sample is too small. You have to look at whether the team is winning in general, not whether they're the one team among 32 to win the SB.
Winning the Super Bowl is the only thing that matters in the end. You have to use the ultimate goal when looking at results based strategies. What the ultimate goal tells us is that the best way to win a Super Bowl is to have Tom Brady or a great young QB on his first contract in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th year of that deal. When you look at failing strategies to *win* the Super Bowl prominent among them is paying a QB not named Tom Brady who has just won a SB as though he will win you another because even the great ones won't.
Brady theoretically can be considered the highest paid QB in the league every year because he took a BS paycut while the Patriots paid him with off the book business expenses and he had his wife making 1.5x what he made every year. It tarnishes the analytics of what you're saying which is what @HomeoftheJets is saying. And you're trying to use Brady as the basis for everything when he's the only QB in league history to take below his value.
That and the fact that you just can't make a statistical argument with a sample size that small. For instance, imagine if the football gods didn't have it out for Kyle Shanahan. Then Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo would have both won Super Bowls despite making a lot of money, and the conclusion about paying QBs would be very different.
