Well, Ryan was hoping the D would get a 3 and out. You would almost always get it when the offense rushes three times in a row. But the Steelers were aggressive. They knew the Jets O was in sync and became unstoppable (apart from the goal line stand they had). Steelers passed on third down TWICE, converting both times. Kudos to Mike Tomlin for actually playing to win the game, rather than trying to defend the Jets O. With 2:43 seconds left, Rex called a 2nd TO. I think he should have waited. Steelers had to run another play prior to the 2 min warning, and then the clock would stop again. After the 2 min warning, we would still have two TOs, with a third down Steelers play. If they get a first, we call a TO with like 1:55 left. 1st down, we call the final TO with 1:50 left. 2nd down and third down, and they take off about 90 seconds. We get the ball back on a punt with about 12 second left after giving up TWO first downs. Slight misjudgment, but what are the chances we score a TD with 12 seconds left?
You both are correct. But with so little time left, we are now looking at three drives, two by Jets and one by Steelers, rather than two drives, one by Steelers and then the Jets. So the OP is being very optimistic about his point where we absolutely HAVE to stop the Steelers with just one first down.
OK, I thought you were agreeing with the OP that it ultimately was better to get a safety rather than a TD. When I said the Jets had to get the ball back twice, it meant they needed two possessions rather than the one to tie it. I think that's the way most folks read it. Just miscommunication I guess.
I agree. I though Rex screwed up there. You get it, you can drive for the win. If you dont, you are only down by 5. Even if you give up a first down, the Steelers would have settled for a fg and not tried to push for another 1st down. You simply needed another possession, and putting the defense out there did not guarantee that. So, just like the risk-reward of passing on 3rd down made sense for Tomlin, on-side kicking the ball made sense for the Jets. And, after watching Folk kick off all year, Rex had to know he was kicking it to the 15-20, and with a return, it was likely Pitt would have the ball at the 35-40.
But what do you really gain bu kicking it away? Assuming the defense makes the stop in the same amount of plays, you are getting the ball back trailing 5 or 8 points. It's still a 1 score game and you need a TD either way. The risk/reward there screamed for an onside kick. You cannot win the game when you need a TD without the ball in your hands. Now, if it were 3 point or less game, I would absolutely kick it away.
Field position. You're going to use at least two of your timeouts on D to get the ball back, and you need a TD. So the shorter field you can set yourself up with the better your chances of driving for a TD in the final minute with 1 or 0 timeouts left. Pittsburgh hadn't scored the entire half and just fumbled the snap in their own end zone, you know Rex wanted his D out there as deep in their end as possible.
Absolutely not better.. the only thing the safety was, was one more shot after killing ourselves getting down the field, wasting a lot of time for 2 pts and a do-over. We then had to go down the entire field again to score one of our 2 TDs needed. Two freaking yards from the endzone... that goal line series is one of the worst I have watched in my life.
If the Steelers go 3 n out after the kick, it's a short field to score. With one or no timeouts and little time left, that would have been huge. You couldn't anticipate they would get a big return on the kickoff.
You COULD anticipate they would get the ball between the 30-40 yard line the way Folk was kicking off. If you fail the onside kick you lose at most 20 yards of field position there. Either way you are going to lose 2 minutes of time, which was a far more precious resource at that point in the game. If we get the onside kick, we have 3 minutes and 3 timeouts, can take our time and run the plays we want (keeping the Steelers honest in the D formations), and win the game with the ball in our hands. With the kickoff or a failed onside kick we're in basically the same situation, throwing towards the sidelines on every play, while the Steelers play a deep zone. 20 yards doesnt make a huge amount of difference in that situation, as more often than not, we'll get to midfield in the same amount of time, and have 30 seconds, no timeouts, and 50 yards to go.
With that little time even 20 yards is a big deal, it's 1/5 of the field. You can't anticipate your team failing to execute on the kickoff or on D, you give them the blueprint to succeed and they have to execute it. To me this is not on the coaches.
It's not all on the coaches, not at all. In the end (and the beginning for that matter) the D cost us the game. In that situation defenses almost always go into some form of prevent, allowing you to get big chunks up the middle, before tightening up once you are on their side of the field, so unless you are pinned inside your 10 getting to the 50 is doable in a similar amount of time. Now, consider if they had kicked a FG (or even better, missed) after the failed onside kick? I think you would agree that our field position in either situation would be better than if they had punted from their own 40 after a standard kickoff and 3 and out...
My least favorite part of the game was seeing Rex whoop it up for the safety. They just left 5 points on the field. Give a fist pump and move on...there was more work to do. The game was more than winnable in the second half, and it wouldn't have taken a miracle. It certainly needn't have come down to a defensive stop and a last minute desperation drive.
