The table is the same as it was in 1997 the year before Peyton Manning's rookie contract began the spiral that got out of control by the mid 2000's. You can make a pretty good argument that the chart should have been adjusted to reflect the higher risk as well as reward from 1998 to 2010 but there wasn't really time to do that as the spiral was progressive from year to year and only got completely out of hand with the 2005, 2006 and 2007 #1 pick contracts that respectively guaranteed Alex Smith $26 million, Mario Williams $28 million and then JaMarcus Russell $32 million. What got out of hand was that none of those guys were projected to be great players and yet they got bonuses that eclipsed the bonuses that really special prospects like Eli Manning and Michael Vick had received. The Stafford and Bradford deals were another escalation in the madness. Andrew Luck would be looking at a $100 million guaranteed contract out of this draft if the rookie scale had not been put into effect, because he actually is a special prospect with all the extra oomph that has given rookie QB's at the top of the draft.
That is the old way of looking at it through the lens of the old CBA. With the new CBA and the rookie pay scale the values of picks/slots and players will change drastically. No real consensus of valuation has been formulated as of yet since no trades were allowed last year.
Can I ask what makes you guys believe that Tanny sits at home with Madden on XBox and Kiper's draft list and decides on the picks all by himself? You do realize that Tanny is a GM and not the draft nick you make him out to be? He just decides on what deals can be made because he has the input from the whole organization. What the coach wants, what can be done within the cap, what the scouts say, player development, position coaches, etc. He gets too much credit for the good moves and too much bad for the wiffs. He didn't pick Gholston. He did the deal for Holmes because Rex wanted him hear. The org needed a QB and Rex (certainly with Schotty's input) Tanny and WJ went and got Sanchez after meeting all three QB prospects. Under Tanny's regime there have been some mistakes but I think he's done a pretty good job. Besides, he's a capologist and I want a money guy at the top. He can keep us out of cap hell.
Tanny is the GM. He is responsible for the personnel moves. The fact that he hears recommendations from others doesn't mean he is not the one who makes the ultimate decision. I am for accountability at the top. That's why I blame Tanny more than anyone else.
Tanny gets input from many people within the organization but ultimately he makes the personnel decisions and the buck stops with him. He alone is responsible if a personnel move because he as GM has the power to make the final decision and overrule or disregard input from Rex, the scouts or anyone else that is below him. If Woody was more like Al Davis or Jerry Jones, Tanny would get a pass because his boss made him do it. In this case, Rex is below Tanny when it comes to personnel and Tanny can say no to Rex if he disagrees and make the decision that he thinks is best. If you disagree with anything I said in this post, let me know.
Do we ever think that happens on football merits? I could see Tanny overruling someone on the cap, but do we think he ever tells Rex "We're not picking the guy you want, because the guy I want is a better football player"?
Trading up that many spots to the #3 pick with the rookie salary scale is not a realistic option for any team anymore.
I'm content with the Jets staying put at 16 or trading back for more picks. With so many holes to fill on our roster, it doesn't make sense to trade a boatload of players or picks to move up into the top 10.
You are an intelligent, rational fan. And you show a keen understanding of what it takes to build a successful NFL franchise. As such, your ideas will be shot down on this site.
Your post might be taken seriously if it weren't for your childish "naked tattooed woman" avatar which only shows that you've rarely, if ever, gotten laid.
Trading DOWN is always a sensible idea as long as Jets get to keep one pick in 1st round. Trading up for multiple picks? Guess why trading DOWN is a good idea?
My thoughts are that the Tannenbaum of the past is gone. This guy is working with his job on the line. He needs to have the best off season he's ever had to get the team to be competitive in 2012. If this team misses the playoffs OR the Jets go less than 8-8, I expect Tanny to be fired (maybe the only caviat being if the Jets go like 11-5 and miss the playoffs because there are a ridiculous amount of good AFC teams). The Jets are very up front about reading the media and being that the media critiqued the shit ouf of him for only have a few draft picks the last couple of seasons, it's not in his best interest to trade picks away. He needs to use every ounce of his mathematical prowess to arrange the payroll to be able to acquire 1 or 2, B Grade free agents and supplement the draft around what we can or cannot acquire in FA. About Trading Down: The Jets need 5 guys they realistically can draft at their position (or be ready to take value, if value presents itself in an unforseen scenario, i.e. Blackmon falls to their position) and they CANNOT be without them. If they do not see anyone on their list, they need to trade out of that spot.
Moving up to #3 is so stupid the way our roster is constructed right now and has been for the last few years, unless it's for a QB, and they're shipping Sanchez off somewhere for a 1st or early 2nd.
