He may even be one of the Mayfield haters who already are posters and just signed up a second account.
I've seen a lot of really dumb threads on here over the years and this is the mofakkin dumbest of them all
Don’t get me wrong guys I’m all aboard on drafting a QB! Darnold and Allen are my guys and I’m really hoping we can secure one of them . My concerns with Rosen and Mayfield are very real in my eyes. Barkley is just such a sure thing to be a stud. Baker is such a wild card we would really be gambling if we picked him 3. I see him taking a Johnny football type slide down the draft board. If he truly is our guy you must move back, he will be around at 7-10. If you have any doubt at all in Baker or Rosens ability to be a FQB (personally I do) you must take Barkley. For next years QB crop I like Lock much better than Baker. Also see Patterson as a better version of Baker. The Auburn kid I like as well. Or maybe Teddy pans out and we don’t need to pick a QB in 2019 if we end up with Barkley somehow!
We traded up for a QB, and not a SINGLE QB prospect next season is better than Baker. I'd argue none of them are even better than Jackson. Relying on Teddy's bum knee to overdraft for a RB is just fucking dumb.
Why is it so hard for you to take on board that no matter how many times you post it, you do not fucking know who the fuck Mac is selecting at 3, you do not know unless you are Mac himself. It is time you started putting IMO in front of it all, jesus how many threads can you say the same fucking thing over and over. Also folk that use the term "supporters" in some kind of derogatory way are also rather odd, so some people want Barkley and you don't fuck me deal with it and move on, it wouldn't do if we were all the same sheep. I want Barkley because he is a Jet and he will likely work his nuts off and strive to do everything he possibly can to make us great again (said with a hint of sarcasm) but if we do take a QB I won't be crying either as I can see we need a FQB but again I am more than worried that non of these QB's are it anyways, all have plenty of upside and downside and are far from a surefire hit.
First round running backs have the highest bust rate and the smallest statistical impact on their team's success. They are almost entirely fungible. Spending a top-20 pick on a RB is one of the worst decisions a team can make This year, Penn State’s Saquon Barkley is being touted by many as the best player in the draft, and perhaps should be considered by the Cleveland Browns with the number one pick, maybe not falling out of the top three. Last year, Leonard Fournette went fourth overall and the Jacksonville Jaguars made it to the AFC Championship game. Christian McCaffrey went eighth, and the Carolina Panthers improved from 6-10 to 11-5. The year before that, Ezekiel Elliott went fourth and the Dallas Cowboys found themselves with that season’s leading rusher. And the year before that, Todd Gurley went 10th, and he just led the NFL in total yards and touchdowns. All of this has given the running back position a bit of a renaissance of late after a period in which teams shied from ever using a first round pick at the position. But I’m here to tell you that teams were right before, not now. They should not be using early picks on backs if they want to increase their odds of overall success. Even the Seattle Seahawks, who have a top 20 pick in the upcoming NFL draft (number 18, to be exact), and are perhaps the least-talented in the league at RB, should avoid using that pick on any back. Here are the reasons why. 1. Rushing carries little value in the modern NFL In the NFL, passing is king. Rushing barely matters: Rush efficiency explains only 4.4% of the variance in wins. You might as well guess randomly [...] Pass efficiency explains 62% of the variance in wins in the NFL [...] In college football, rush efficiency correlates more strongly with wins than in the NFL. Teams like Alabama, Stanford and Wisconsin have won with a power running game and a physical front seven on defense. The insignificance of running the ball is unique to the NFL. A recent study from Pro Football Focus found that the four RB measurements that best predict team wins in the following year are PFF pass-blocking grade, pass blocking efficiency, yards per receiving route run, and PFF receiving grade. That’s right: RBs only help their teams win to the extent that they matter in the passing game. Premium draft picks should be spent on what matters: improving a team’s passing game or pass defense. 2. Highly-drafted RBs are not any better at rushing If rushing were valuable (it’s not), a natural question would be the extent to which highly-drafted RBs are better at rushing than other RBs. I used Pro Football Reference to look at the average yards per carry of all RBs drafted in the top 20 since 2004, when a heightened emphasis on illegal contact increased the efficiency of the passing game. Since then, the 17 RBs drafted in the first 20 picks have carried the ball 18,991 times for an average of 4.2 yards per carry. NFL teams combined have rushed the ball 195,381 times for an average of...4.2 yards per carry. Of the 17 players drafted in the top 20, only 7 have at least 4.3 career yards per carry. With an enormous sample size, there is no difference between these RBs and everyone else. 3. First-round RBs have high bust rates A study from a couple years ago on Arrowhead Pride found that among offensive players, no position had a higher 1st round bust rate than RB: The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 1st round RBs are high risk for little reward: a bad bet. 4. We are bad at evaluating running backs Every year, some new RB is touted as a generational prospect. Last year it was Leonard Fournette, whose NFL.com draft profile lists Bo Jackson as his NFL comparison. In 2012, it was Trent Richardson, who was touted as “as compact and coiled an athlete as the position has seen since Adrian Peterson”. In Fournette’s rookie season, he was below league average in yards per carry and success rate despite being drafted at #4 overall. Richardson was drafted at #3 overall and is already out of the league. Whenever I share these arguments, the response I always get from Seahawks fans is “but what about Marshawn Lynch”? This response is misguided for two reasons. First, you cannot know ahead of time if a given prospect is the next Marshawn Lynch. If you think you can, we have mountains of evidence that you are wrong: we have a nearly 20,000 carry sample size of top 20 RBs not being any better than league average. I like how Josh Hermsmeyer put it: “Statistics is really just a way of quantifying how dumb we are.” When it comes to scouting RBs, we are very dumb. And second, the Seahawks did not spend a high draft pick on Marshawn Lynch: they traded for him after his value fell. Which brings me to my next point: RBs are cheap to acquire. 5. RB rookie contracts are bad values The reason draft picks are so valuable in the NFL is that teams get to sign players to below-market contracts for their first 4-5 seasons. Let’s take Jalen Ramsey, for example. As the #5 pick in 2016, he will carry a $6.4 million cap hit in 2018, which is the 26th highest cap hit among CBs in 2018, per overthecap.com. For a player regarded as a top 5 CB, that is a great value. Now compare Ramsey’s contract to Ezekiel Elliott, the player who was drafted one spot before Ramsey. Elliott will carry a $6.9 million cap hit in 2018, which places him as the third-highest cap hit among RBs in 2018. Even if you believe that Elliott is a top 3 RB, paying a top 3 RB with top 3 RB money does not provide value like Ramsey’s contract does. There is one RB whose cap hit exceeds $8 million in 2018 (LeSean McCoy). For comparison, there are 20 QBs, 25 WRs, and 26 edge rushers whose cap hits exceed $8 million in 2018. Running backs are cheap to acquire. Spend your high draft picks where they provide value, not on a RB. 6. RBs are fragile RBs suffer serious injuries (defined as at least 4 games missed in a season) more than any other offensive position. Even if rushing mattered in the NFL (it doesn’t), and even if RBs picked in the top 20 were better at rushing than all other players (they aren’t), RBs still miss games more than other positions. (cont)
7. RBs have short shelf lives A recent study found that 77 percent of RBs had their peak seasons at age 27 or younger. A glance at the top 5 in rushing DVOA in 2017 shows Alvin Kamara (age 22), Dion Lewis (27), Alex Collins (23), Todd Gurley (23), and Kareem Hunt (22) leading the league. Not only are these players extremely young as a group, but only Gurley was drafted in the 1st round. RBs decline so quickly that after spending a 1st round pick on a RB, it might not even be worth picking up their 5th year option, and it almost certainly won’t be worth giving him a huge second contract. When brings me to my final point. 8. RBs don’t change the fortunes of a franchise If your first thought is “but what about Ezekiel Elliott or Leonard Fournette?”, go read this. If you’re wondering about Marshawn Lynch, Seattle’s offense didn’t take off until they drafted Russell Wilson: Inspired by @Stat_Ron's graph for Steelers, here is Seattle's offense over time as measured by EPA/play (basically the Russell Wilson show) pic.twitter.com/4pAGuXgkuf — ben (@guga31bb) August 9, 2017 There are countless examples of players drafted in the middle of the 1st round (picks 12-20) who have had meaningful impacts for the teams that drafted them, with the older ones being worth signing to second contracts: Maurkice Pouncey, Jason Pierre-Paul, Earl Thomas, Brandon Graham, Nate Solder, Melvin Ingram, Fletcher Cox, Zack Martin, Aaron Donald, Odell Beckham, Marcus Peters, and on and on. None of these players are RBs. The Chargersdrafted Melvin Gordon with the 15th pick, 3 picks ahead of Peters. Yet Gordon has never topped 4.0 yards per carry or had positive rush DVOA in any season and in 2017, Gordon had lower rushing and receiving DVOA than his teammate, undrafted free agent Austin Ekeler(albeit at very different volumes). In 2018, Gordon’s cap hit will be six times as large as Ekeler’s. Yes, Gordon is active in the Chargers’ passing game, but so is Ekeler, and the Chargers acquired Ekeler without using a premium draft pick (or any draft pick at all). Any exceptions? As mentioned in Point #1 above, RBs can help their teams win to the extent that they are valuable in the passing game. But how many running backs are valuable enough in the passing game alone to be worth a top 20 pick, especially given how easy pass-catching RBs are to find in later rounds? The list of RBs who are useful in the passing game who were recently drafted in the 5th round or later (or not drafted at all) is long: Matt Breida, Corey Clement, Isaiah Crowell, Benny Cunningham, Ekeler, J.D. McKissic, Danny Woodhead, and Jordan Howard. Every year, we fall in love with RB prospects based on their college tape. I get it: watching players like Leonard Fournette destroy amateur competition is a lot of fun. But what we keep forgetting when it comes to draft season is that rushing stops being important at the NFL level. The free agency market for RBs shows that teams have already recognized this to some extent, but when it comes to the draft, teams just can’t help themselves. https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/2/2...uon-barkley-leonard-fournette-ezekiel-elliott
What if I told you he could dominate like an Earl Cambell, Gayle Sayers or Bo Jackson. But had a short career like those RBs Interesting of all the RBs you listed, all great, only one won a SB and only one at the tail end of his career after a lot of losing.
Get over it, we're not rafting him. I'm not going to even bother responding to the first part of your message, because you're allowing your love for Barkley to blind you from reality. We NEED to swing for a QB, and we WILL.
This is a very interesting article. It puts into perspective the issues with drawings RB's very high. The point from the first half of the article where RB in the top 20 only account for less than 10% of all rushes (and at the same YPC) seem very telling. I would imagine that highly drafted WR's in comparison would have much higher numbers - although it would be interesting. Also the point about average salaries at positions vs. drafted slot salaries is a point that I had not considered before. The deceased effect of running along with the draft capital that the Jets spent (some would say overspent) leads me to believe that a QB will be chosen. IMHO in most circumstances one RB is not worth giving up three extra top-flight picks. Especially if you consider the lack of talent that the Jets have on the I don't believe there value of Barkley (although I like the fact that he loves in Jets) would be good value. He would have to average 2K yards per year (combined) over a long period of time and even that would not be a great investment if the Jets ultimately don't get a FQB over the next few years.
A healthy TB along with a very good D and Barkley could certainly win a SB. We came close to winning a SB 3 times, once with Vinny T who if my memory is correct lost to Denver when Elway was way past his prime. That team was absolutely carried by Terrel Davis who was miles better than Martin when healthy. We came close 2 with Mark Sanchez a proven bust who isn't even an adequate NFL backup and Jones and than Tomlinson who were both at the end and not nearly great backs at the time. Nick Foles just won the SB against Tom Brady. The real question is when we pick is there a franchise QB available. None of the QB's in this draft class is Andrew Luck or anything close to a sure thing. The fact that a guy under 6'1" who has had a run in with the police is even considered a 1st round pick shows you just how desperate teams are for a franchise QB. The fact is there are only 10 to 15 of them in the entire world. Sometimes you have to win the hard way.
I'd disagree with that. I think clayton thorson is a better prospect (probably the best for the 2019 class) and also that shae patterson is a better version of baker, but still not really a top 10 prospect either. The 2019 class is weak at QB for sure though. Clayton is a similar prospect to allen which is more of a mid 1st rounder, and patterson is more of an early 2nd round prospect. Nobody in 2019 remotely close to darnold or rosen.
Running Backs don't win Super Bowls. You know it, I know it, we all know it. Even Pete Carroll knows it. Too bad we won't land Barkley...the kid really loves the Jets.
The logic behind taking Barkley at #3 only makes sense if that was the Jets original position and they didn't trade up. They are also starved for a franchise caliber QB.
