Turnover Ratio Impacts W/L Record...DUH!

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by ColoradoContrails, Aug 25, 2019.

  1. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    This article in the NY Post lays out one of the reasons Todd Bowles sucked as a HC - his ignorance of a basic reality of winning: teams with Plus Turnover Ratios (PTR) usually win:

    https://nypost.com/2019/08/25/why-new-jets-regime-has-placed-a-greater-emphasis-on-turnovers/

    "It is not a revolutionary idea, but the new coaching staff has put an extra emphasis on that aspect of the game. It is something the Jets have been terrible at during the past three losing seasons.

    They were minus-10 in turnover margin last year, minus-4 in 2017 and a whopping minus-20 in 2016. You have to go back to 2015 to find the last time they were on the plus side when they finished plus-6, which also was the last time the Jets had a winning record."

    In contrast, Gase and Williams are focused on limiting them on offense and generating them on defense. That alone is cause to believe this season will be much better. Simply being able to watch a game and not scream at the TV for them to be more aggressive and quit playing soft will be so refreshing!

    It remains to be seen whether Gase is a good HC, but so far the indications are very positive. I'm as optimistic as I've been for decades.
     
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  2. ConcordeChops

    ConcordeChops 2018 International Poster Award Winner

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    It seems obvious but if our D isn’t working and Sam has to throw the ball to chase the game, Gase’s ratio could be as bad as Bowles’

    I think this stat is a byproduct of being behind in games and less to do with ball security.
     
  3. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Bowle's defenses were consistently passive. Their ranking of Take Aways:

    2016 - 31
    2017 - 23 (Tied)
    2018 - 27

    Obviously offensive give aways make this even worse, but this was a consistent failure of the defense from a supposed "defensive genius". I do't want to get in to rehashing the past, but more along the lines of fianlly having some optimism because the Jets almost HAVE to be better in this regard.
     
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  4. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Welcome back! I've missed your posts!
     
  5. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    Turnovers are a direct reflection of talent. It’s not a coincidence that the last time they were plus was the last time they had decent qb play. Every coach preaches the turnover battle. Not every coach has the talent to apply it.
     
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  6. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    Teams that are turning the ball over often are usually trailing in games. This lead to more turn overs. Teams that are leading tend to run more which leads to less turn overs.
    That’s why we are always so bad in the ratio. Taking more chances while not getting as many. Couple that with some pretty bad talent a couple f this e tears and there you go.
     
  7. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Both good points and true, but still, Bowles's defenses played "soft" and not very aggressively IMO.
     
  8. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Thanks! I needed a break. Might be lurking for a bit until the season starts.
     
  9. WarriorRB28

    WarriorRB28 Well-Known Member

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    These guys seem to get it. They're saying the right things.

    Because of their backgrounds their words carry more weight than if it were a rookie HC & first time coordinator saying it.

    Still some things are easier said than done. We'll see if they can apply it when the real games start.
     
  10. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Idk... of course talent helps with everything but you can coach a team to create turnovers in a number of different ways.

    For example - Todd Bowles' teams never, ever gang tackled. There was very little backside pursuit and for the most part they relied on a defender making an open field tackle on his own. You aren't gonna create turnovers that way. By preaching pursuit to the ball and gang tackling, you open the opportunities for creating fumbles.... AND recovering them.

    A great first move for a DC here would be to chew out anyone who doesn't pursue the ball carrier on this defense. I'm confident that Gregg Williams is the type to preach that though so thats good
     
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  11. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    rush the passer....that will create all sorts of turnovers.
     
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  12. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Exactly! Williams has been doing a number of drills with the defense to work on stripping the ball and creating TOs and has had the defense pick up any ball that hits the ground. I don't recall Bowles/Rodgers ever doing anything like that.
     
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  13. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    Defense making plays is definitely part of it and Bowles did run too much of a read and react d but I think most turnovers are bad offensive plays v good defensive plays. To that end we haven’t had the talent to not turn the ball over hence the bad +\- ratio. I expect that to change this year.
     
  14. BacktoQueens

    BacktoQueens Well-Known Member

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    I think your rankings are based on Turnover margin, which factors in offensive turnovers, as well as defensive takeaways.
    Even if just looking at Defensive takeaways though, your point is still valid.
    Outside of 2015 when they ranked 5th, it all went downhill.

    Playing an aggressive style of D should hopefully equate to more takeaways again.
    We may give up some big plays, but I'm ok with that as long as we are also creating more havoc for opposing offenses.
    Hopefully the Corners hold up enough for Williams to run his style of D.
     
    #14 BacktoQueens, Aug 26, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2019
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  15. TonyFtLaud

    TonyFtLaud Well-Known Member

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    Don't know where your getting those #s or if your confusing take aways with differential.
    Actual rankings take aways
    2016 28th
    2017 20th
    2018 16th
    The offense killed us with giveaways
    2016 2nd
    2017 12th
    2018 3rd
     

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