AP was handicapped by the weather. All the jockeys, including Espinoza, were heavier in the Preakness, due to the rain. Gary Stevens said in his post race interview that he weighed 120 before the race and 135 after the race, even after taking off his helmet and draining water from his shoes. He said something to the effect of any other day, the race would have been delayed because of the weather.
Judging by your handle, I have a feeling you know your horses.. Thinking about putting some cash on this race myself up at the Casino/Sports Betting parlor in Harrisburg.
Going $5 across the board with Frammento, Materiality and Keen Ice. Don't think A.P. will even place.
It's only about a gallon and 3/4 of water, think of the jockey falling in a swimming pool and coming out soaked, plus the absorption of their shoes. Seems plausible.
Been betting on ponies for a long time, and AP is by far one of the most natural race horses ive ever seen. Some of the moves he makes are so sharp and flawless, its unreal. I was at the stakes last year (which was a complete clusterfuck) and didnt have faith in chrome, but i have 100% faith that AP gets it done this year. Especially with such a small field. He will win by 5 to 6 lengths. I think im going with frosted as my number 2 and materiality to round out my trifecta.
That's the scouting report on AP that I heard from my "horse guy" as well. The trifecta picks are different but all the folks I speak with that know anything are saying the same thing as you about AP
I'm going with 3-6-8. ,,will root for AP but there is a reason this rarely happens,,,,,I liked frosted in the first race he had a real tough trip and I like him now that he had a month to rest
I like 3 also, but like the Pletcher/Velasquez pair better than the Pletcher/Castellano pair. One of those two will wind up in the money though.
matt, you may want to give this article a look: http://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiem...martest-way-to-bet-100-at-the-belmont-stakes/ The Smartest Way to be $100 at the Belmont Stakes It’s not an exaggeration to say that when American Pharoah thunders down Belmont Park’s homestretch Saturday evening, he will be carrying the hopes of millions who want to see him become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. Millions of dollars will be riding on his back, too: when California Chrome ran for the crown last year, bettors at Belmont Park wagered $7.8 million on his race alone; another $83 million was wagered by fans watching at other tracks simulcasting the race. Similar amounts of money could flow through the betting windows on Saturday. But here’s the thing: if American Pharoah’s odds stay at their current 3-5 level, betting on him to win is neither a sure thing (because there’s no such thing as a sure thing in horseracing, and that’s especially true for the mile-and-a-half, anything-can-happen Belmont Stakes), nor odds that offer a particularly lucrative return if he does win. Odds of 3-5 mean you’d win just $3 on top of your original $2 bet – a good return if you’re talking about the stock market, but small potatoes in the world of thoroughbred racing. “The big handicappers aren’t going to bet him – they’ll be looking for price,” says Brian Rucker, a handicapper who correctly picked the order of the top five finishers in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Rucker counts himself among that group. Calling the odds on Pharoah too short, and noting that he had Tonalist over California Chrome last year (which turned out to be a good call), Rucker told FORBES that he’ll be looking at bets involving Pharoah competitors Frosted or Materiality this year. If you’re a full-throated “Pharoahite” (as his fans are calling themselves), putting money on Frosted, Materiality, or one of the race’s long-shots (like Frammento, who’s currently 30-1) might feel like sacrilege. But if you’re horse-agnostic and simply betting to be part of a day that could go down in history, placing a win bet on American Pharoah might feel like a boring deployment of your dollars. To that end, here are some of the best ways to get some play with your Belmont betting dollars – along with exactly how to say your bet when you get to the betting window: The bet: $4 on American Pharoah to place. One of the simplest bets is the win, place, or show bet. If you bet a horse to win, you’re betting that he will win the race. Betting him to show means you’re betting he’ll come in first or second, and betting him to show means you’re betting him to come in first, second or third. Rucker suggested putting money on Pharoah to place because there will be so much money in the “win” pool that the payout for Pharoah placing will be divided among much fewer people – which means that if he comes in second, a la Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Silver Charm and Sunday Silence, you’ll get as much money as you would have if Pharoah had pulled off the win. Total cost of bet: $4 How you say this at the window: If you’re at Belmont Park, say, “Race 11, $5 on the 5 to place.” (You say it this way because the Belmont Stakes is the 11th race of the day on Saturday, and American Pharoah drew the 5th post position.) If you’re betting at a track that’s simulcasting the race, say, “Belmont Park, Race 11, $5 on the 5 to place.” ______________________________ The bet: A $2 exacta box on American Pharoah, Materiality and Frosted. Rucker calls this the “smart play,” because if either Materiality or Frosted beat American Pharoah, it will pay out decently well. “Make sure you box it,” he adds. A box gives you all possible 1-2 combinations involving the three horses: Pharoah over Materiality, Pharoah over Frosted, Materiality over Pharoah, Materiality over Frosted, Frosted over Pharoah, and Frosted over Materiality. Betting a straight exacta means you’re betting the horses to come in the exact order you say. Because the exacta box gives you more combinations, it’s a bit more expensive – you’re paying $2 for each combination. But in a race where anything can happen, it’s a good way to hedge your chances with the three favorites. Total cost of bet: $12 How to say this at the window: If you’re at Belmont Park, say, “Race 11, $2 exacta box on the 5, 6, 8.” If you’re wagering elsewhere, say, “Belmont Park, Race 11, $2 exacta box on the 5, 6, 8.” ___________________________________________ The bet: A $4 trifecta involving American Pharoah, Materiality, Frosted and the rest of the field. Picking horses for the trifecta means that you are wagering on horses to come in first, second and third place – and in that precise order, so it’s a trickier play than an exacta box. But you can hedge your bets by putting multiple horses in each slot. Cory Moelis, a product manager at betting site Derby Jackpot, agrees with Rucker that Materiality and Frosted are the two horses that are most likely to come in ahead of American Pharoah, so he suggests essentially building upon your exacta box bet by throwing these three in a trifecta along with the rest of the field, which includes long-shots like Frammento (currently 30-1), Keen Ice (20-1), or Tale of Verve (15-1). Here’s what that would look like: First place: Materiality, Frosted Second place: Materiality, Frosted, American Pharoah Third place: All “I think Frosted and Materiality will go off at about 9-2 and 4-1 or 5-1, and you hope one of those guys beats American Pharoah,” Moelis said, explaining that if a 5-1 shot comes in above the 3-5 favorite, it pays better than if the 3-5 favorite beats the 5-1 shot. And if one of the really long-shots comes in third, you get an even better payout. But by betting the “all” (a bet that means you’re putting money on each horse in the race), you’re giving yourself a chance to make a little bit of money if the favorites do come in 1-2-3. By putting multiple horses in each slot, this bet means that you’ll win money if the order of finish is Materiality-Frosted-Frammento, Materiality-American Pharoah-Frammento, and so on, and so on. But because you’re giving yourself a chance to win money on so many different outcomes, this bet will cost you: a $4 trifecta on this combination will cost a pricey $96. Total cost of bet: $96 How to say this at the window: If you’re at Belmont Park, say, “Race 11, $4 trifecta on 6, 8 with 5, 6, 8 with all.” If you’re wagering elsewhere, say, “Belmont Park, Race 11, $4 trifecta on 6, 8 with 5, 6, 8 with all.” If you’ve been doing the math, you’ll notice that these three bets add up to more than the $100 referenced in the title of this post. So what’s the smartest way to bet $100 on the Belmont? You’d get the most play by betting $4 on Pharoah to place and paying $96 on the aforementioned $4 trifecta. This way, you can bet on history happening but also hedge your bet in case – as has been the case 12 times in the last 37 years – the Triple Crown hopeful fails to get it done. But, as Derby Jackpot’s Moelis wisely noted, “If you think American Pharoah is going to win, you shouldn’t spend $100.”
Maggie McGrath doesn't understand betting or odds. Few women do. 3-5 means you'd profit 3 dollars on every 5 dollars risked. Winning 3 on top of original 2 bet would be 3/2 odds. Anyway, oftentimes in the TC races, you're better off betting the favorite to place or show because tons are betting him to win. The win odds don't justify a bet.
If you bet that exacta box and AP wins, you lose money. Only way you make money is with Materiality or Frosted on top. Most exacta tickets will have AP on top, resulting in a payout that will not net you 12 on a 2 dollar bet (3 horse exacta box means you're betting 6 outcomes, so 12 dollars risked on a 2 dollar box). Boxing the three favorites is a lousy strategy.
