Nania/PFF combo bomb which some are sure to hate but I couldn't resist: Something to ponder for the crowd that thinks it was absolutely the right move to trade up for AVT or that he's already some kind of stud. Jets fans and overrating rookies as long as they aren't instant busts, name a better duo.
At least he’s serviceable lmao. Look at our draft history and tell me why I shouldn’t be ok with that? We drafted Denzel Freaking Mims 12 months before and Jachai Polite
Because when you trade up to take a guard 14th overall you expect him to be more than serviceable. It's a loser mentality to be happy with mediocrity just because we're used to utter crap. The NFL is a very competitive league. To be a good team you have to do a lot of things right. Little mistakes add up quickly.
He was a rookie adjusting to the NFL, learning a complex offensive scheme, and McGovern is the one who missed a lot of stunts, so AVT was having to cover for him a lot, and probably was credited for some of McGovern's mistakes. In addition, PFF are a bunch of buffoons, and I take all their stats with a grain of salt.
Agreed. He’s playing next to McGovern who is having to cover from some random RG we signed to start. We need Linderbaum and need to commit to Big Tickey. Surprised Saleh, a players coach, can’t get him or Mims to buy in.
I’m not trying to pick on you, but I’m done hearing about the complex scheme. I’ve heard a bunch of people try to use this as some sort of excuse for every different position group on the field for the Jets. I’ll give it to the quarterback and that’s about it. Because at about mid season everyone knows what they’re doing. AVT was decent for a rookie, but I believe @REVISion is right in that he was massively overrated here. But I do think he started off at a good pace to be a very good player.
How did he compare to other rookie left guards? Do we really expect rookies to be all-pro out of the gates? Yes, it takes a bit to learn this offense and for lineman to gel. That is why consistency is important on an o-line and this line makes it a bit more important.
Huh? Based on a lot of McGovern's comments this year it seems like he was often the one covering up for AVT and GVR's mistakes. You really think it's more likely the rookie was covering for the 5 year vet than the other way around? In one sentence you say AVT was a rookie adjusting to the NFL and learning the offense and then in the very next line say he had to cover for McGovern a lot.
I'm no OL expert, but a number of posters here who I think are more knowledgeable about the OL said that McGovern misses a lot of stunts. It's not unreasonable to think that while AVT is adjusting to the NFL, and learning the offense, that he could still on occasion recognize a stunt, or see that McGovern was struggling. I could be wrong, but I believe that AVT was the right pick, is a more talented player than McGovern, and that he will be a much better pro than McGovern has been.
Compared to the other rookie interior linemen AVT ranked behind a guy taken 212 picks later, and about the same as a guy taken 22 picks later, and much lower than a center taken 48 picks later. None of the others cost any additional 3rd rounders. The final results show that we massively overpaid for AVT.
I'm not going to pretend like AVT is a great player. But, I do see him becoming a good one with more experience. The LT and RG situations are a bigger concern now.
Yeah and this is especially true for a team with as many holes as the Jets had and still have. It's not like we were a guard away from contending for a Super Bowl. It's no coincidence Zach was still getting lit up the first few weeks despite us taking the "sure thing" in AVT. Trading up is generally a surefire way to lose a trade. Most people are overconfident in their ability to do things especially well relative to others. The best GM's realize this and don't overestimate their own capabilities to select better players than others in the draft. With that in mind they realize the only surefire way to draft in a +EV manner is by having more picks.
I don't think anyone said AVT was an all Pro player at this point of his career. But we have to be fair. Nania said this "Vera-Tucker was particularly impressive in the run game. When New York forged a successful run play, No. 75 could often be seen leading the way. The Jets amassed eight rushes for 10+ yards on carries that went through the left-side A-gap (the space between Vera-Tucker and the center), their best total into any particular gap. On the year, Pro Football Focus scored Vera-Tucker with a run-blocking grade of 72.6, which ranked ninth-best among left guards. It is clear that Vera-Tucker has a bright future in the run game. There is a high likelihood that he establishes himself as one of the league’s best interior run-blockers for a long time. However, Vera-Tucker has a lot of work to do in pass protection." Then he said what you tweeted. AVT is not without criticism, and with all these observation from PFF he still ended with a solid grade and made PFF all rookie team. Because most other guys are way worse, while he was good. Including the RG taken with our third rounder that didn't even make defense roster - Wyatt, was injured and played only special teams. Jenkins, the guy that was rumored to us, missed entire year. AVT played every snap except 1 game he missed due to covid protocols. Just because AVT is not a Pro Bowler in his rookie year and has areas he needs to improve does not mean this wasn't a great trade. He still was the best rookie at the position according to the same publication (PFF).
I disagree on Douglas. I will give his drafts a C minus. in 2020 his best pick is the punter Braden Mann and cornerback Bryce Hall.. Mims, Perrine, Zuniga, Davis, Morgan, Clark can't make it onto the playing field. Becton weight and injuries are hurting him and this year is a huge season for him. 2021 slightly better with Carter 1 & 2. Echols, AVT, Moore, and Wilson.
2020 draft is looking pretty bad, but if Becton pans out that C- turns into a B+. If Mims makes a miraculous turn around then an A+
Yeah these are good points. For the record I definitely don't think AVT was bad for a rookie by any means. I just think the NFL is so competitive that you have to squeeze every bit of advantage out of every move possible as a GM, and I don't think trading up for AVT was the most optimal thing to do given all of our holes. There's also the angle that the more young players you take at any position group the better it is for the group as a whole because there's a constant feeling of a young guy nipping at a starter's heels. That's hard to quantify but it's important. You don't want complacent players who think there's no chance of anyone taking their starting spot. Douglas did this with our CB group - drafted a ton of young guys to create a shark tank of competition for the starting spots. It resulted in our CB's surprising us hugely to the upside. We lost some potential to do that with our OL by trading up for AVT.
I don't feel like you're picking on me, but thanks. I think it is a complex scheme, but AVT didn't play as well his rookie season as I thought he perhaps would. You may be right about it not being a valid excuse midway through the season, although every thing I've read about this scheme is that it takes a year or two to master for players, so it is at least feasible imo that he could still have been struggling a big mentally with the scheme. It was still good enough to make the All-Rookie team. I definitely agree that he is on pace to be a very good player.
I totally get your not liking trading up, especially with as many holes as we had (and still have). Normally, I'm almost totally against it, only agreeing that it's legit in a few situations, one of which isn't to get an OG. In this particular situation, however, I think it was the right move. The rest of the OG draft class was pretty crappy imo, and we needed to protect Zach's blind side. There are times when trading up is the right move. The trade up just wasn't for AVT's and Zach's rookie season. It was hopefully for the next 10 years or more, regardless of who the starting QB is for the Jets. AVT also offers flexibility in that he has experience playing OT and could potentially fill in at LT or RT if need be. That gave him more worth, as did protecting the QB's blind side. In addition, so little attention had been paid to the OL over the previous 10 years that it was almost necessary to try to finally take a major step towards fixing our OL which has been awful for far too long. Using mathematical formulas or hard and fast rules in the draft are for incompetent GMs, who don't know how to handle the draft, who aren't good at talent evaluation, who can't or won't approach each draft differently based on its merits and flaws and the team's needs, who have no gut feeling for the job, and who can't think creatively or outside the box. That's basically what Idzik did and who he was. How did that work out? You have no basis in fact to assume that JD is overconfident. The bolded sentences are far from accurate imo. Do you have any data or facts or quotes to back up your opinion? If so, please share them. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty certain that the facts will show that you are wrong in your assumptions. Go look at the best GMs (Ozzie Newsome, Wolf in GB, Kevin Colbert, Brandon Beane, whomever you think were the greatest GMs), and I'm pretty sure that you'll find that they all did it at one time or another) over the last 20-30 years. Even they traded up on occasion. They didn't do it as a matter of course, like Tanny did, but when the situation dictated that that was what they needed to do, they did it.
http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/05/luck-vs-skill-in-nfl-draft.html I don’t want to use this analysis to suggest that there is no skill in drafting – I don’t think 31 fans off the street would fare particularly well against 1 real GM with a full scouting organization – but there doesn’t appear to be excess skill. That 1 GM with a full scouting organization is competing against 31 other GMs with similar resources and precious few proprietary insights. All of them pore over the same game tape and combine stats save a few private workouts with some prospects. Check that article out along with the comments below, where others attempted similar analysis and came to the same conclusion. Here's another one: https://www.thestar.com/sports/foot...tball_players_more_about_luck_than_skill.html One of Wharton School professor Cade Massey’s recent research projects started as a consulting deal with a National Football League team. The franchise asked Massey, “Who is best at the draft? Who should we be paying attention to?” His answer was surprising. “I went out and looked at the data,” said Massey, sitting in his office on the fifth floor of Huntsman Hall at Penn. “It turned out, there are no differences in teams’ abilities to draft.” There are clearly “huge differences” in outcomes, Massey was quick to point out. “Some teams have great years, other teams have bad years — and it matters,” Massey said. “But those differences aren’t persistent year-to-year, which tells me that they are chance driven. Something between 95 and 100 per cent — I’m not exaggerating — of team differences in the draft is driven by chance.” ________ I'm not saying there are no GM's that are better at drafting than others, just that the vast majority aren't. Over a long enough timeframe it's pretty clear that drafting NFL players is more luck than skill. With that in mind the only way to assure you have more luck is by having more picks. I do have basis to think Douglas is overly confident. The AVT trade up proves it. I'm not saying he always is, but he was in this instance. The more instances you have like this as a GM the more likely you are to fail because you're doing things that are usually not the best thing to do. You may get lucky and have it work out, but it's a flawed process that will lead to more bad outcomes over a long enough timeframe.
