What makes zero sense is you treating every draft as the same and assuming that the level of talent at OG or any one position is the same from year to year. It isn't, so your statistics are pretty much meaningless for the 2021 draft. Those stats are a general guideline, not something to follow blindly or slavishly.
A couple of factors makes me disagree with, or at least question your perspective. One, we don't know how much input Gase had in who was drafted in 2020. It could go either way. The second and more important factor to me is JD's mentor in Ozzie Newsome, and the fact that Jeffrey Laurie gives much of the credit for the Eagles' SB win to JD and his personnel decisions. I don't think anyone could have had the draft JD had this year if he wasn't at least an above average evaluator of talent. Hopefully, after JD has a great draft in 2022 it will stop all the questioning and doubting of his ability.
if any of that was true, the higher picks wouldn't have more value. it would be a flat value if all picks are deemed worth the same and quantity is more important then quality. your argument states that for example you have a better chance of landing a good QB if the jets drafted sam elingher, ian book, davis mills, kellen mond, and kyle trask instead of drafting wilson. your saying the odds that 1 of them is better then zach in the long run is better because you are taking more chances. the problem is that theory only works with static information. for example lets use the lottery. it's static informaiton. buying 100 tickets nets you a better chance then buying 1 right? now what if we make it not static and say well you can buy 1 ticket but we'll give you 4 of the 5 numbers that are winners so you only have to guess the last one to win it or you can buy 100 random numbered tickets. the reality is now that shifts the odds heavily in favor of the 1 ticket because now it becomes a 1 out of 55 chance where the 100 tickets is 100 in 42 million. that's how the draft is guys picked higher have a much better chance to succeed hence are more valuable due to the information we have on them.
My guess is if you asked people before the draft, the majority would not be in favor of this trade. Fans tend to lean towards trade backs as opposed to trading up. I for one would absolutely have said no this trade. Having said that, I was in favor of trading back into the first. With the benefit of hindsight, I absolutely think it was a good move. The Jets picked up a franchise offensive linemen. Thats all I've been asking for lol.
Isn't it how ANY move and actually any GM is evaluated? If your move turns out good, you did well, and if not you didn't. Just need to make enough of these good moves to finally get the Jets into play-offs and go from there.
Can't make enough of these moves if you keep consolidating draft picks to do it. From 2006 to 2011 the Jets drafted Nick Mangold, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Darrelle Revis, David Harris, Dustin Keller and Muhammad Wilkerson, all plus players capable of building around long term. The team still collapsed in 2011 and 2012 because the Jets did not draft enough quality players to keep the team fresh from year to year. One of the main reasons they didn't draft enough quality players was because they made a habit of bundling draft picks to move up and cherry-pick players - some of them listed above. AVT looks good now - but not as good as Revis and Harris did after the short 2007 draft.
If we're looking at pure hit rates then all these numbers are great but there are many more things to account for with prospects such as game tape, interviews, scheme fit, etc. After the draft process, the Jets greatly preferred spending 2 extra 3rds to get AVT compared to the next IOL they had ranked on their board. Joe Douglas has done a great job of acquiring draft capital through trades, allowing him to move up and down the board as he pleases without completely butchering a draft class. The Jets still made 10 picks in the 2021 draft; that's a lot of darts thrown at the dart board.
Actually that's NOT what I was saying. I was refuting the idea that the only sure way to nail a draft is for a GM to have MORE picks.
Yeah, that's why I used this analogy: "To put it another way: If you give a guy with bad hand eye coordination twice as many darts as someone with good H-E coordination, he's still going to lose."
Regarding the bold - it is better for an OL to have, say, 5 average players than 2 studs, 1 average guy and 2 awful players because the awful guys are going to get blown up by the DL anyway and there isn't much the other OL can do to stop it. Having single great players on a line is much less important than making sure there are no awful guys on the line (GVR). Regarding the 2nd part of the bold - this discussion is not about AVT vs. two 3rd round picks. It's about AVT vs. a 23rd overall pick AND two 3rd round picks on top of it.
However if you give a guy with good hand eye coordination twice as many darts as another guy with good hand eye coordination the first guy is going to bury the second guy because having twice as many darts is an insurmountable advantage between players of similar skill. The point about the Jets is that they had ok hand eye coordination in the 00's and yet they mainly traded extra darts to use that coordination. In the end their score didn't look so great because they just didn't throw enough darts. The Jets after that regime threw a bunch of darts for a couple of years but their hand eye coordination sucked so they didn't gain ground. The Maccagnan Jets went back to not having enough darts and also had mediocre hand eye coordination. The Douglas Jets have thrown a fair amount of darts but not particularly well coordinated. Given the depth and talent problems they probably could have used even more darts than they've thrown, but also needing to throw them a bit better. We periodically see articles and posts about the Jets not being able to use a lot of picks anyway because how many picks can make the roster? The answer to that is that maybe on some good teams there are limited slots available for rookies to succeed but the Jets haven't had fewer than 11 starting positions open and ripe for the taking since 2017. You could argue that the 2021 Jets had maybe 15 open starting positions, nominally filled by weak vets, street meat and other players whom a good drafted talent could have stolen the position from with ease.
Certainly, the ideal situation is to have a dart thrower (GM) with good H-E-C (talent analysis) and he has lots of darts. I know we differ in our assessment, but Joe's first year his H-E-C was mediocre and a decent amount of darts; last year his H-E-C was much improved and he had more darts and used them well IMO. I'm very hopeful that he'll do at least as good this year with the "dart board".
I'm still doubtful on the draft as a whole this year. I think odds are fairly good we got AVT and Moore out of it and maybe we will get lucky with Carter and he won't get hurt. Maybe we will get lucky on Echols and he will turn into a plus starter. The Jets really need to throw 9 or 10 darts a year for the next couple of seasons and they need to hit half of them to have a chance to catch up to the AFC East. They also need to get really lucky on the injury front and so far that's not happening.
if your doubtful on this draft then IDK what to tell you. your expectations are impossible. at worse I see we got 5 above average starters as rookies in moore, AVT, carter, carter II, and echols. We also possibly got a FQB but we'll know more in 2 years. 3 of those starters have pro bowl potential (AVT, moore, carter) and that doesn't include zach. 5 starters plus a potential FQB is a stud draft any way you look at it
But the premise that number fourteen and number twenty-three are basically equivalent appears to be faulty when looking at the chart posted earlier that is supposed to be in actual use by NFL teams according to Walter Football. REVISion's comparison was based on some secret odd formula that changed draft position to dollar value. The purported NFL chart values pick #14 at 1100 points and pick #23 at 700 points, quite a substantial difference. Checking the chart to value the AVT trade and the chain of trades that followed gives the chart credibility that the dollar values do not. It would make no sense for teams to try to make trades if they all had a different system of valuing pick positions.
The value of different draft spots is somewhat based on which position is being drafted. OL do not drop off as steeply as others from pick to pick or round to round. An OL taken in the third round has a much higher % chance of becoming a starter than a CB for example. My comparison was not based on the dollar value formula, that is just another form of draft analysis that happens to agree with my conclusion that we overpaid for AVT. My comparison was based on the statistical likelihood of a guy drafted at a given position/round becoming a starter.
But the comparison is not about how the pick was used; the comparison is the value of the empty slot, it's up to the GM how it is filled. Your grading of the trade is a different matter.
The bad thing for JD is he is supposed to be a guru as far as o-line and has used a high 1st on Becton and another 1st plus for AVT. We suck at the o-line. We have spent a ton of assets for a good o-line and yet we are one of the worst in the NFL. Fant was probably his best Free agent signing and he will probably walk
