You have absolutely no way to know this was going to be the case. You're making up your best case scenario. And that's why I can't buy any of the arguments about what COULD have happened.
Humphries will make the PB before AVT does. Maybe even Dickerson will. Its clear now that there wasn't just one good interior linemen last draft. The others went below round 1.
You are right, we can't know which Guard JD would take, but we do know that every single G taken rounds 1-3 is significantly worse than AVT, with the exception of Dickerson, who is also worse, but more importantly EXTREMELY injury prone. Some, like rumored Jenkins, are even out for the year with serious career threatening back injury. So, while we can't know, there is a huge probability we end up with garbage if we don't get AVT. On top of it, given we were still able to get two other productive players from Minny picks we got aside from AVT (Echols, Pinnock), it has to be considered a really good move. While in general your point is accurate, in this specific case, JD made a move for a certain player (AVT) that clearly paid off and was a good one.
AVT is already a top OL in the league. You can always look back and say do this or that but he’s fine. He will be a multi year starter. Can’t complain at all. Worth it.
To be fair you're doing the exact same thing by using hindsight to say "Look, AVT's been great and these other guys suck!" Process vs. outcome. The best process results in the highest number of good outcomes over time. Trading up for AVT was a suboptimal process that we might get lucky with and have an above average outcome with. It's like saying teams should always kick a field goal if they get into the red zone. There will be games where that doesn't result in a loss but it's almost always a bad decision over enough games.
To pick out three or four players we could’ve gotten is silly. Who knows where the dominos fall and who we would’ve picked? We also could’ve gotten three trash players, no?
Excellent post! This forum has become a cesspool of bitching and moaning and posters trying to impress others with how smart they think they are. I have news for them...none of them are even in the same country code as JD. It's laughable seeing all the nitpicking, totally unrealistic expectations, and ignoring of facts to suit their agenda. It's making this forum unreadable.
Like I mentioned, it depends on scouting and flexibility. We'll never know. But I didn't reach. Dickerson went 38th and Humprey went 63rd. Humphrey is already being called one of the top centers in the league. He is a FAR better value than AVT. In fact, getting AVT could have cost us a player like him. But like you said - at this point we'll never know.
I'm not using hindsight though. I'm basing an opinion on facts. What actually happened. Things we can quantify that actually exist. That's the one and only thing that a decision should be based on. We KNOW that AVT is already a high level NFL player. We have no idea who we would have taken with the picks we traded therefore we can't say something was a bad move because MAYBE everything would have gone perfectly if we went one way over the other.
I liked Humphrey, but figured C wouldn't be prioritized with McGovern in place. I wouldn't be opposed to taking one this year as McGovern has a year left.
The "agenda" you don't get is that some posters think they're smarter than the GM and they're trying to impress other posters with their knowledge. Those with agendas never admit that they were wrong, even though they are most of the time (even a broken clock is right twice a day). They aren't really fans of the team. Being a fan implies liking the team, rooting for it, and even when they disagree with a move the GM makes, they hope that they will be proven wrong. That's not what those with "agendas" do. They root for the team and/or move to fail so they can be proven right. They are just sad, pathetic people who overvalue their opinion, aren't dealing with reality, and can't back up their words with facts.
If we can't get Linderbaum, I want this guy. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/jarrett-patterson-notre-dame-oc-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2022/
Oh for cryin out loud dude. Your upset because the illusion that AVT was the only good interior linemen last draft turned out to be wrong. As for JD, 6-26. And don't expect big things next year, right. Maybe we make it to 12-37?
You're overestimating the importance of "value" in terms of draft picks. The value a player brings is much more important, and I guarantee you that the value of whomever JD would have take with those two 3rd round picks would not equal or exceed the value of what AVT has done for the OL and protecting Zach. As another poster said, this isn't some math exercise. It's football. No formula, guideline, or principle is always right. There are always exceptions to the rule. Based on JD's trades, handling of FA, and the 2021 draft, I'd say that you're totally wrong that JD is not an elite GM or an elite drafting GM. He has traded down 4 times and up only once, and acquired extra high draft picks that no one ever thought we would have, and that we probably wouldn't have had were it not for JD exceptionalism.
It's like you're tying to equate this to a poker move. It's not that cut and dried. For example in Texas Hold'em you know mathematically that if you go all in preflop with AA vs AKs that would will win 87.9% of the time. That's purely math and probability. You can't make the same type of assumptions when it comes to the draft.
He can't provide a name of a player. Three of us have asked him to name those players and he has not responded. It's easy to throw out generalities, but when it comes to specifics that's where theories get blown out of the water. Trying to claim that the trade up for AVT was bad is patently ridiculous.
