Top free agents for next season

Sorry. Upon re-reading your initial post, I saw that we do indeed agree. I thought you were saying we only needed 6 draft picks instead of 10 or 11. That's what I get for reading too fast. Thanks for the correction.

 

I agree 110% - Rex has done a superb job when you think he has taken us "this" close to playing in the SB with a sub-par QB.

Its clear that these days you need either a "top tier" qb (giants, packers, saints, patriots) or an elite defense and a so-so QB (jets (2009/10), ravens, niners) - sadly this year our defense was not playing to an elite level and there is no reason to think its going to do so next year and so if sanchez does not improve dramatically its likely to be another so-so season in 2012.

 

I agree with this even more (maybe 130%)

this is what is so ridiculous about the NFL - you can draft BPA, you can have the best coach, you can have the best team spirit, you can do everything right but unless you get lucky (and all it is is being lucky) to draft a top tier QB then you are always going to struggle - its just a shame that the Jets have pretty much never had that luck

i dont blame the jets for rolling the dice with Sanchez - every draftnik and evaluator had him as a top 10 talent - its just gutting that to date it doesnt look like its going to pan out for us.

 

Here's the thing though. Amid all the rubble of last season, and there was a lot of rubble on the offensive side of the ball, Sanchez still threw 26 TD passes and ran for another 6 TD's.

It's hard for some people here to believe, but if the Jets cut him right now the odds are good there'd be a bidding war for his services, and not at a backup level. People will look at his first three years and they'll say that he had very little playing experience at a high level coming into the NFL. They'll say that he's often looked his best in big games and when the Jets were down late. They'll say that he's been able to make all the throws but his inconsistency is what has kept him from taking the next step.

They'll bid and he'll wind up signing somewhere for a good salary, with a fair amount of it guaranteed. It won't be the $14 million that his cap charge is for next season but it's going to be in the vicinity of $10 million a year.

QB's like Sanchez don't come down the pike very often. He's not elite by any means but he makes enough plays when it counts that people are going to want him. Hell, the Pats may well be one of the bidders. The Dolphins certainly would be.

 

If the demand is so great (not saying that it is) then we could trade him and still cut the same $9 mil off our cap.

 

I dont think Sanchez is terrible and I have never been one (other than in an emo moment during a game thread) to call for sanchez to be cut - but at the moment he doesnt look as though he is ever going to be more than a so-so QB and that just doesnt cut it in todays NFL (unless you have an elite level Defense - which we do not have at this time).

I still hold out hopes for him in a new system but there can only be a handful of people left that feel confident that Sanchez is going to become what we all hope he can be.

 

I think aside from a small handful of QB's nobody can win a SB trophy in the NFL without an elite defense at this point. I doubt very much that we can win the Super Bowl without an elite performance from the defense on the day.

Maybe only Drew Brees is capable of winning the trophy with his defense having an average day at this point. Then again, maybe he's not capable of that given the Saints early exit this year.

I have the exact same hopes for Sanchez that I have had since the 09 playoffs. That he will become an elite game manager who takes risks now and then and plays well at the end of games.

People who ever thought he was going to become Peyton Manning or Tom Brady were guaranteeing that he would fail in their eyes before all was said and done.

Dan Marino was the best QB in NFL history from a passing standpoint from 1984 to 2000 when Peyton Manning had his first great season. It is likely to be 2025 before we see another pair of QB's as much above the field as Peyton and Brady have been for much of their careers. Maybe Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton will turn into the +25% guys on a regular basis now but it's more likely that they both fail out for reasons beyond anybody's control before that (Daunte Culpepper is the poster child here.)

 

Rodgers looks like the real deal. The guy makes some throws that are flat-out absurd. He'll be elite for quite a while. Newton on the other hand...we'll see. I have a feeling we may have seen his ceiling already (which isn't bad at all) and he'll be more Dante Culpepper-esq. You never know though...

 

Putting Cam Newton and Dante Culpepper in the same sentence, much less comparing them is absurd.

 

Are you kidding with this or have you forgotten how good a scrambler and passer Culpepper was before the injury?

Culpepper averaged about 470 yards a season on the ground from 2000 to 2004. He averaged over 5 yards a carry over that span. He threw 39 TD passes in 2004 with a 69.2 completion percentage and a 110.9 rating, at the time the 4th highest rating on record. He also threw for 4,717 yards that year which was the 5th highest season on record.

Randy Moss caught 49 passes that year...

 

Imo this thread is digressing a bit from the main topic.

I think there's general agreement with obviously some exceptions, and assuming either that it is desired or accepted as a practical matter that Sanchez is coming back for at least one season,with no big move to replace him in the cards, the following are the Jets' biggest needs this off season (with a couple of my personal comments where appropriate):

#2 Wideout.

Right Tackle.

Safety/ies. (Imo Leonhard's status is a question mark right now. I am inclined based off two season ending injuries in a row to think the team either needs to replace him or provide a solid backup/competition for him. Pool has to go, and I am not one here who hates Smith - hence the math tends to add up needing two, but it is possible the Jets get by with one.)

ROLB. (Pace is certain to come back, and while I am not certain Thomas is gone, the overall need for improved speed at LB dictates replacing Thomas.)

Running Back. (Imo Greene is not up to being an every down back, McKnight has not shown enough to be the change up back for Greene - this in fact may be a position where the Jets get a really quality player and stop hoping Greene becomes that.)

Backup Qb. (Imo the Jets should go quality here, but the "logic" of bringing back Sanehez for a clear shot at showing he in fact is and will be the franchise Qb means they need no more than a decent backup. Also see below discussion of McElroy.)

Punter.

In addition, there are a few positions that there is more debate about. Assuming Pouha comes back, and Hunter stays as the backup tackle, with Turner coming back as interior line backup, the following are areas perhaps not as obvious as the above, but still an issue, particularly if the CS wants to change direction:

Tight End. An obvious question mark here is the effect his injury had on Cumberland. But even if the prospects are good for him, Keller is a problem for this team. Not only does he give away too much in run blocking, he's not anywhere near the presence in the receiving game that some other teams have in their TE's. Keller's contract situation is also very problematic. I could see the Jets doing something here, although they more likely will not, having too much else to fix elsewhere.

OG. Both guards are issues, albeit of different sorts. Slauson imo is average at best and now seems to be facing a shortened off season after surgery. Moore looked very shaky early last season, stiffened as the year progressed, but meanwhile has gotten a year older. Depending on him after this year seems risky. These two players need not only to have a backup in Turner, but someone in the pipeline who will either replace Moore in the next year or two, and perhaps step in for Slauson sooner. Do we really want to see Turner, who is also coming back from injury, as the answer here? Again I think the Jets will leave it at replacing Turner, but that is risky and merely pushes off the Moore side of this equation a year.

Kicker. I don't like Folk. I know he's not awful. But he's not very good, either. Again, I doubt the Jets make a move this year, but he's not very good.

Encouraging Prospects who are Question Marks. Every team has these, but in putting together a roster, you have to consider what you reasonably expect from this category. The Jets seem to have a rather large number here, but perhaps all teams more or less do. Kyle Wilson, Kerley, P Turner, McKnight, Maybin, K Ellis, even Wilkerson, all fit this category, as does Cumberland in his hoped for return. (I gave up on VD, ftr.) Perhaps most intriguing is McElroy. Despite the move I would make if I were in charge at Qb, which would be to get Kyle Orton, I would not be surprised if the Jets stood pat at Qb and put McElroy in as the backup. Seems risky, but for all of this group, the Jets have too many holes elsewhere to afford doing anything other than hope all these young guys pan out, and that might include backup Qb.

 

From my foregoing list I think there are some basic strategy scenarios we could see the Jets take (ftr all these scenarios assume R Turner and Pouha are back):

The Minimalist Approach. Tanny may be psychologically predisposed to take anything but this approach, but it is potentially there nonetheless. Going off my point about the younger players, this approach means focus on those areas where no younger prospects are there or are too much of a stretch. This means leave backup Qb and even RB alone, perhaps even ROLB with Maybin and Westerman filling that slot, and focus instead on RT, #2 wideout, and perhaps two safeties. One safety position can be filled with a draft pick, but going draft at wideout is problematic, as is RT, although less so. And oh yeah the punter.

Don't Count on the Young Guys to Fill the Holes. In addition to the fore mentioned above, this will mean ROLB, backup Qb, and RB also must be picked up. This is a rather tall order in one off season, imo, at least given the apparent lack of cash available to go FA and the risks in trying to get a starter or important backup ready to contribute in the draft. For example the JEts almost certainly will not go Qb in the draft. But despite being a tall order, it is doable. The problem here is in mixing the draft with FA, how can the Jets count on getting quality players at the positions they don't fill in FA from the draft?

Then there is the middle ground:

Some FA, with BPA in the Draft. This means fill some holes in FA, preferably the three or four starting positions (wideout, RT, ROLB and presumably one safety position), then go BPA in the draft. The logic here is that the Jets already have some playesr who MIGHT fill all the other holes (although filling ROLB with the existing roster is just too risky for my blood). So just go BPA and we'll sort it all out in camp. The logic here is why go away from BPA to fill a position that someone already on the roster might be able to?

Those are the three basic reasonable scenarios. Anyone have any other suggestions? THen of course there is the scenario of the dreaded high profile trade up make a splash deal that most here have come to hate, or at least distrust, but which Tanny seems to like.

We shall see....

 

I like the middle ground, but I don't think it is possible to get 4 starters with 8 million or less in cash. I think we can hit on WR, RT, and maybe S. I agree we should look into getting a ROLB but it will be tough. We definitely need to avoid relying on the draft for a starting RT or #2 WR.

Also agree on not trading up because I am wary of missing on picks. However, we have a lot of lower round picks and if we can use those to maybe jump up in the later rounds I wouldn't be upset with that. I am completely against trading up in the first few rounds. I don't think we can risk it with the holes we have.

 

Thank you, that about sums up what I would have said :wink:

 

If I had to pick, I would also choose the middle ground. As you mention it is simply too expensive to address more than a couple or few in FA, and the idea of counting on filling a specific need at a given draft position is as always problematic. I hope I have adequately explained why I think this year even more than usual is a year that BPA is going to be the way to go. With a few exceptions. For very different reasons I don't think even with BPA that the Jets will get another corner or Qb in this draft. Probably won't use a high pick on a Center or on the DL, either. Heh.

ROLB will imo be the hardest position to do this for, as you say. It will require some discipline to not reach down and get one if the Jets have been unable to address that beforehand. And I don't know how I feel about relying on Maybin and Westerman there. One thing I do know for sure is the Jets will have to pick up one by the start of the 2013 season or there'll be hell to pay.

Another moving part here, the more one thinks about it, is the Leonhard situation. When he went down I remember thinking oh shit now they are going to have to get two safeties. But maybe they have too many other holes to fill to do that this year unless they have to, so they may well take a look at Leonhard's condition and decide he gets another year.

 

Interesting posts.

You didn't say, but are the needs you list in what you see as their order of importance? If so, while I agree with your list and mostly all of your comments, but don't agree about the order of importance.

Tieing your two posts together, I think how the Jets address their needs depends upon how they view the 2012 season. If they see themselves as being a prime contender in 2012, I think they will probably address the WR and QB positions in FA and hope that Hunter can bounce back or that Ducasse can replace him. They may re-sign Thomas and draft an OLB. If they see this as a bit of a re-tooling year (which I believe it should be), then they may opt to go with their younger players and let them develop, and may seek to bring in some cheaper stop gap FAs as insurance at several positions.

The most important position in a 3-4 D alignment is the OLB position. They are the playmakers charged with rushing the passer and stopping the run. The DL, and to a lesser extent the ILBs tie up the OL so that the OLBs can make the plays. Thomas is gone (or should be) and Pace will be gone after this season. Thus the Jets need two new potential starting OLBs. Pace can help mentor them this season. This is the draft to get those two OLBs. It is an unusually strong draft for OLBs, and I believe that wise GMs draft to the strength of the draft. Aside from last year's draft, and Gholston several years before that, it has been a good while since the Jets had the opportunity to get a real difference maker at OLB. It's amazing what Rex's D has accomplished with the only playmaker being Revis, the DL basically pedestrian and overall slow-footed personnel. He deserves prime playmakers. I believe that with the additions of Wilkerson and Ellis last year, and with the additions of two excellent OLB prospects this year, the Jets can develop a dominant D that will be capable of pitching shutouts and keep the Jets competitive, if not challenging for the SB for a long time. With a better pass rush opposing QBs won't have all day to find an open receiver and TEs won't kill us over the middle.

To help that, and because none of our safeties can cover, the Jets need at least two new safeties. I can live with Jim Leonard to help mentor the two new safeties and E. Smith as a backup for one more year, but the Jets must add two safeties. At least one of these must be in FA, as they need a heady veteran like Griffin, Nelson or Branch to go along with a rookie. I'm not high at all on Barron, but like Markelle Martin and Harrison Smith in the second round, Trumaine Johnson in the 2nd - 3rd round range and Winston Guy somewhere between the 5th and 6th rounds.

Barring that, I think there are a couple of CBs that the Jets could draft and convert to S. One would have to be taken at #16 (Dre Kirkpatrick, but if Ingram and Upshaw are both gone and the Jets can't find a partner to trade down for Perry or Mercilus, then Kirkpatrick could be the BPA on the board. The other is Stephon Gilmore of S. Carolina. He isn't the speediest player, but is aggressive, has great hands and made a ton of tackles in 3 years.

I think RT should also be addressed primarily in FA, but they should also draft an OT somewhere in rounds 3-5. Jared Gaither is probably too expensive, but Anthony Collins may not be. If the Jets think Kareem McKenzie's poor season last year was a result of his knee rather than age, he may be a possiblity.

If they are in re-tool mode, then McElroy may be the backup and then the Jets use a low round pick or sign a UDFA to hold the clipboard. If they're all in for win now mode, then they may look to bring in as good a vet as they can. I don't like Orton. I think Shaun Hill is a better player if they go that route, but if they sign a QB, I'd rather it be Dennis Dixon. He played well for the Steelers last season and I like his ability to run.

I think the punter position should definitely be addressed and that via the draft. With Rex's philosophical approach, I cannot believe that the Jets didn't draft a great punter prospect in Rex's first season. It is critical in his style of play. Vets are too expensive. There are several good prospects in the draft. Since they have compensatory picks, they should grab a punter in the 5th or 6th round.

I think Slauson did very well last season, especially considering that he played much of the season with one arm. He could be upgraded, but that's a luxury now that can be addressed in a future season. I think Moore's struggles early had more to do with the fact that he was coming off major surgery to both hips, had a revolving door or matador at RT, and for 4 games or so had bad play or limited play at the C position. He should be much better this season. I don't think Turner is a fit in the new man blocking scheme. He's too light in the pants. I'm not sure if Schlauderaf has any real potential or not, so the Jets should either use one of their lower round picks on an OG or look to sign several UDFA OL.

I agree that the K position could stand to be upgraded, but that may have to wait until next year, unless the Jets draft a strong-legged player who can both kick and punt.

TE is definitely a need. I'm hoping that they will trade Keller and be able to get a 3rd round pick for him. He will fit better in some offenses than he will the Jets. If they can trade him, then they can draft a bigger, stronger prospect who is equally adept at blocking and catching the ball. If Cumberland is recovered from his injury, he presents a bigger, better target for Sanchez and I think he can easily replace Keller's production, probably won't have all the drops Keller did, and with his bigger size could become a much better blocker than Keller.

I see RB as less of a need. While Greene may not be ideal, 1,000 yards with the Jets' OL troubles last season is anything but shabby. The Jets also need to find out what they have in McKnight and Powell. If they can't pick up the slack and contribute at RB, then I'm sure someone will be available as a camp cut.

 

I went back and looked at his stats. I HAD forgotten how good he was and that injuries derailed his career.

 

I prefer the minimalist approach, but could easily accept the middle ground approach.

I disagree that it's necessarily problematic to go with drafting a WR. More and more WRs come into the NFL and are able to contribute immediately, if not start and play at a high level. I think all the FA WRs who are worth spending any money on at all will all be too expensive for the Jets. I think they're going to have to address the WR position in the draft.

I can only see their being able to address the S and RT positions in FA. They might be able to sign both Tyvon Branch and Lowery and Anthony Collins at RT, if Lowery is willing to come back and if the Jets even value him. If they sign Griffin or Nelson, then I think adding a RT will be it.

I'm a firm believe in building through the draft, not FA. FA should be used for insurance and depth imo, not to sign big name FA saviors. If Tanny and the Jets Scouting Dept. do a better job with the draft, the Jets won't need to sign big name expensive FAs.

I fear the Jets will go after Jarrett Johnson because Rex knows him. He's on the wrong side of 30 and not very fast. It would be a more expensive, slight upgrade over Bryan Thomas.

 

Kleck,

I don't have enouigh time to go over your whole post, but ftr I did not mean to suggest my listing of needs was in order of importance.

One other thought before I go for now is on the OLB position, I agree it is very important for this year and next given Pace's contract, but ftr a draft position of going BPA will probably not hurt the Jets on OLB since as you say there are good prospects in the draft pool. It is possible Maybin might develop into a better all round LB, but it is as likely if not more so that the Jets realistically have to think about starting 2013 with two starting LB's not presently on teh roster.