I gave Folk about a 30% chance of making that FG. If we punt, Id give Brady a 80% chance of moving down the field for a FG. We went for the. And somehow the football gods hooked us up a bit
Folk has only hit a 56 yarder once in his life, here were Brady's drives: TD, punt, TD, punt, punt, int, punt, punt, punt, FG, punt, FG, punt Where the fuck are you guys coming up with these %'s? If they pin Brady back I don't see how he has an 80% chance at driving the field.
I'd certainly never give Brady the ball needing just a FG to win if I had any choice in the matter. Very ballsy call by Rex because you know he wanted to put his pride and joy on the field and have them win it for him but he knew that was likely a pipedream.
I know what you mean, but I think Rex felt like Smith might throw an interception in that critical moment, like he did a few times at the end of the first game against the Patriots. I was very nervous that Smith, who had been playing well, would suddenly have a rookie moment and the game would be over. Ivory had had some success in running through the middle, so I felt like it was a reasonable if conservative choice. Rex was probably thinking "My kicker is having a pro bowl year, let's just get as close as we can with this set of downs and have Folk knock in the game winner." If anyone could've made the 56 yarder, it would've been Folk, but fortunately the eagle-eyed ref called the Patriots committing a penalty and threw the flag. While it would have been more satisfying to have seen Smith throwing a TD or making a 1st down pass there, he also could have been sacked or picked off, and with a rookie QB who has been sacked and picked off a lot I think playing conservatively was a reasonable thing to do. Of course, it didn't go as well as it could have because the Patriots were expecting those runs and stuffed them, but luckily the Patriots' coaching staff had failed to teach their players not to use that banned technique and it gave Folk a second chance to win the game, with a shorter kick.
Fine, but leave these ridiculous percentages out of it, Brady was bad today, the Jets had already stopped him when he just needed to drive for a FG once, and a 56 yarder is incredibly high risk in a sudden death game. Personally I would've pinned Brady back and hoped for good field position and one more crack at it.
Brady would have gotten them a fg. I agreed with the attempt.... I wouldve liked more throwing to make the kick shorter. You keep Brady off the field.
So what if it were a 58 yarder? Or a 59 yarder? Or a 60 yarder? Probably the same % of making either of those as a 56 yarder. At what point do you trust the defense that made Brady look like shit all day instead of putting the game on a very low percentage kick? Would you "have to kick it" if it were a 75 yarder?
The issue was the play calling. MM has been willing to sling the ball around all season with a rookie QB. Then when the Jets need 5-10 yards to put Folk in range, he goes into Herman Edwards mode and plays to win with a very difficult long FG. I agree that you don't want to give Brady the ball back, but play to win by letting Smith make a play with a pass rather than running Ivory into a stacked box or trying to run Ivory wide. Three runs from the 36 yard line was just bad.
The Jets have been very careful not to put Geno in positions where his passing was going to be the difference at the end. All three of the late FG's have had very conservative play calling just before the attempt. I think they're doing the right thing there. He's going to have many games that come down to whether or not he completes a big pass. He doesn't need to have those right now. He'll fail on some of those attempts in the future. There's no reason to set him up to fail now when he does not yet have enough credibility built up to withstand the onslaught afterwards.
I said to my roommate when our drive started, we need to go into this drive trying to win. Forget worrying about what COULD happen if X or Y happened, just try to score. Win and lose on your own terms. I liked the FG try, we were aiming to decide the game on OUR terms, not theirs.
This is a stupid post. A 75 yarder is an impossible kick. It's not even comparable. You have a kicker that has not missed a kick all season, a 56 yarder is makeable. You kick it. End of Story.
I don't have a problem with attempting a 56 yard field goal, I have a problem with the plays called to run the ball and settle for a 56 yard field goal. You have to try to get closer.
Brady did get the ball first in OT and failed to drive NE into FG range. Why are some so sure that Brady would have drove them into FG position with his second crack at the ball? Strange call to attempt 56-yarder considering how well Jets "D" had been playing...in second half and OT especially.
Ya, there's no way 55+ yarder is over 40%. That seems absurdly high. I think the case to kick it goes both ways. I see arguments for and against it. Folk has been money all year, but the FG would've been a career long. You miss it, and Brady simply has to go 15 yards to set up Gostowski for the winner. What I think we can all agree on is that the playcalling setting up that 56 yarder was beyond atrocious. One should never 'settle' for that field goal.
Unless that punt pins the Pats inside their own 5-yard line, it just seemed inevitable that Brady was gonna march that offense down to put away the Jets. It was an unlikely FG, but I had more faith in Folk kicking the 56-yarder than Jets D stopping Brady. Folk had been perfect this season & he's been very clutch for the Jets.
I'm glad we won but the fact that we basically didnt try to get another first down on those plays was pretty appalling and horrendous coaching that very easily could have cost them the game
