I mainly agree although if JD sees himself at #10 and accepts a trade down 5 or 6 spots - - because he knows a player he is targeting will still be there - and gets at least an extra second or third round pick out of it I say no harm no foul. But you are right in the sense with a #4 and a #10 (very fortunate with the R. Wilson injury) that this is a great opportunity to get 2 blue chippers…..
I trust JD, so I think I will pleased whether he stays put and takes two blue chippers or trades down from one of the spots, adds additional picks and is able to add more talent early.
Are you forgetting Idzik and Maccagnan? But, yes, I do think Douglas has an eye for talent and will do another good job this year, but I'm hoping he does a great job.
This is why I think the "worship" of Parcells is off base. Yes, he was a great HC, and a decent GM, but he didn't turn the Jets into what the Patriots became, or the Packers or Steelers have been. He made some glaring mistakes for a "saint".
The drop off in the odds of hitting on picks after the first round is truly significant. I posted the odds of "success" for each round here a couple of years ago but I don't have the link anymore. And even within the first round, the odds drop the farther back you go. These odds were calculated over many years including all teams so it's not a function of how good or bad a GM is. Of course these are average odds, so some GMs will do better and others worse, but for the sake of fan discussions like this you can assume the average applies. Based on this, I tend to oppose trading back unless you get a lot in return, and even then, if there's a particular position you need to fill - QB, Edge, LT which tend to be near impossible to trade for or sign in FA - then I wouldn't trade back and lose that opportunity to fill that hole. I'm more inclined to consider trade backs after the first round, but again, only if I get a very good return. What these odds, and real world experience show is that a team that can maximize their ability to find talent in rounds 2-n will be winners more often than not. To me, a good team invests major money and resources in developing a scouting network that can consistently find this mid-to-late round talent. IDK how much the Jets have invested in this area, but I suspect they've under invested, which is why they haven't been able to hit on draft picks, even first rounders. One of the things Douglas was reported as having done right off the bat was to get Woody to commit to him investing in revamping the whole scouting department. That didn't happen in time for JD's first FA and draft, but since then the results have been MUCH more positive. If Douglas can find gold in rounds 2-n he will have gone a long way towards making this franchise into a perennial winner.
He left after 4 seasons. That's what keeps him from sainthood. He was still the best manager of the Jets since Weeb Ewbank.
I agree but my concern is more what is the difference between a top 5 pick and a top 15? Is it that significant to not trade down? Hypothetically: if we are looking at Stingley per example, is he that much better than a Booth or a Gardner or McDuffie? Same with the receivers, there is maybe 5 decent options at WR is there one that is significantly better that warrant to be drafted top 10? In a best case scenario, IMO, we would get 3 first round pick between 10-19 and draft the best CB, WR and DE on board. I think that would be smarter than just drafting a CB or DE or WR unless we truly believe that the player at the top is a significant level above the other. We could probably get also 1st for next year for trading down or more 2nd round picks.
I know that you wrote this post back in January, but the more I think about it, the worse it is. Trading out of the 1st round entirely would be totally nuts. If we had just the one 1st round pick at #4 and it was a strong draft for QBs where a number of teams would be interested in trading up AND there wasn't much there in terms of our needs at that early pick, then it would make sense, as we could get a major haul of draft capital, and the sum of the parts there would definitely be greater than one player taken at #4. But this draft there isn't likely to be a player either at #4 or #10 that teams will compete to trade up for, so in all likelihood, we'd get pennies on the dollar to move down, and the compensation would more than likely be largely in the form of a future #1 draft pick and other picks, which would not help us at all this year. I can see trading down a little from either #4 or #10 if the top two Edges aren't there at #4 and/or if there are players that JD and Jets love, but are valued lower in the 1st round than #4 and/or #10, but not trading out of the 1st round entirely.
It could, but I don't think it will. If JD nails this offseason, the players drafted in the previous two drafts continue to develop and his FA signings make an impact, the Johnsons won't fire him if Wilson doesn't develop. IMO they'd be dumb to fire him when he has rebuilt a solid team and demonstrated that he has an eye for talent, is adept at handling the draft, trades and FA, has revamped/improved our Scouting Dept. and the way they do their jobs, and the culture he is creating with the team. Of course if he doesn't have a good offseason, Zach fails to develop, and the team only wins 4-5 games this season, then that could be a very different story. In that scenario, we could be looking at a new GM, CS, and QB, but hopefully not new schemes/systems on offense & defense. THAT above everything else is what has continually killed this team over the decades. When they hire a new GM and HC, they almost always have changed offensive and/or defensive schemes, which has made some of the few good players we've had not good scheme fits, so we wind up totally starting from scratch again or trying to do a half-assed, patchwork rebuild. IMO if the Johnsons have any desire or hopes to see this team win any time soon, they'd better stick with JD and continue to give him their complete support.
It really depends who’s there. If Kayvon falls to us at #4 then you need to take him and you’re not moving off the pick. Same at #10 if Burks/Stingley/Lloyd is there you’re better off taking him then having to gamble with other guys. JD is in position to get 2-5 important impact players. To add 2-5 starters in a draft is incredible quantity anyways so why not get the quality guy you like.
IDK why you think Stingley is worth taking with his injury history. Do you remember Dee Milliner? What a disaster! There is no way I'd use a valuable pick on a question mark like him.
It’s the ceiling for me. When you watch his film you come away amazed. His injury history is overblown as well. He had a significant injury in his 2nd season no doubt. Last year is what’s overblown big time because LSU was in shambles, fired their coach and Stingley just shut it down to prepare for the draft. Probably good advice from Chase which worked out for him. All I have to say CC is that he passes my eye test on the field for whatever that’s worth. Could he be Dee Milner? Yes! Could he be Deon Sanders? Yes! The film says he is an elite talent and has that kind of ceiling. In this draft if he had a healthy campaign he could of been the first corner in history to be taken first overall.
I think our 4th overall has significant value if a team really want a QB. If we could trade down, still get a mid first round + 2 future first round pick, do you make the deal?
