The Pats have no statistical edge in this game

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Wizard Of Odds, Nov 27, 2010.

  1. Braungeo123

    Braungeo123 New Member

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    Well first of all, I doubt that the Jets will be able to completely neutralize the Patriots offense. They are the number 1 scoring offense in the league, scoring almost a touchdown more per game than the Jets. But that is besides the point.

    I am not 100% sold on Sanchez. He has a 55.2% completion percentage, which is good for 31st in the league (ahead of only Jason Campbell and Derek Anderson). I just don't see him being able to take advantage of the some of the holes in the secondary like Manning and Roethlisberger did.

    Additionally, the Jets rushing game has not been very good as of late. Tomlinson has slowed down tremendously as of late. He has less than 60 yards each of the last 6 games and has averaged less than 4 yards in each of those games. Shonn Greene has be inconsistent at best as well. The Patriots have also allowed 1 100 yard rusher all season (Hillis) so I don't see much of a problem stopping the Jets running game.

    I think McCourty will be fine with whoever is lining up on his side (Holmes/Edwards). He kept up when he was covering Johnson very well last week. I think there will be some trouble on the left side with Arrington/Butler covering. But Sanchez is much weaker rolling out to his left and is prone to make mistakes if he throws across the field that way. I think this is where the Patriots' keeping corners on one side of the field will be an advantage for them.

    As I said, the two teams are pretty evenly matched but have different strengths. I don't think saying the Patriots have the 12th ranked pass offense tells the whole story. Pass yards does not tell the whole story. With a defense that makes a lot of turnover plus extended, methodical (and long) drives, the offense does not need to put up as many yards to score. The fact that they are the number one scoring team in the NFL will attest to that.
     
  2. JetFanInMD

    JetFanInMD New Member

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    Have you watched the Jets games this year or are you just pulling this Sanchez stuff out of your ass from looking at his stats? Maybe you watched Thursday night?

    p.s. LT has slowed down? He had 100 yards this past week and has been putting up good yardage totals all season.

    You really are pounding out some mediocre analysis.
     
  3. Braungeo123

    Braungeo123 New Member

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    I have watched every Jets game this season. And thursday's game was not won on Sanchez's back. He had a mediocre game at best. I am also not buying into the last few late game heroics. He threw some untimely interceptions towards the end of both the cleveland and houston games before brain farts from the opposing team bailing him out and giving him another chance

    p.s. i was talking about the running game as my post says. i don't know what receiving totals has to do with the jets running game. enlighten me.
     
  4. Wizard Of Odds

    Wizard Of Odds New Member

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    Yes but you're failing to see the most important fact in the conversation, which is that the Pats have only lost twice this year and one of those losses was to the Jets. And they lost to a weakened Jets team without several of it's key players. And the Pats didn't lose by 3 or 6 they lost by 14 points. The truth is, the Jets had an easier time beating the Pats than they did the Broncos or the Lions or the Browns. They actually got more of a fight out of those teams than they did the Patriots. Now that the Jets are at full strength how can the Pats overcome that? The logical conclusion is, they wont...
     
  5. Braungeo123

    Braungeo123 New Member

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    I'm in law school and that is not the "logical conclusion" but whatever.

    The patriots were starting 4 rookies on defense and multiple 2nd year players. Additionally they had two rookie TEs as well playing their second game. If you've watched the patriots play you have seen the progress all these rookies have made, especially cutting down the mistakes. Additionally Brady threw a couple of Ints forcing the ball to Moss, which will most likely not happen with the ball being spread more and brady looking to all of his options.

    Additionally, Revis and Cro will be able to stop two of the group of Welker, Branch, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Woodhead but not all of them. Guys will be getting open.

    Additionally the game is being played in foxboro, not the meadowlands. I was at the game in nj this year and i have to give it to you, your fans are loud. Don't underestimate the power of the home crowd.
     
    #125 Braungeo123, Nov 28, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2010
  6. CJLang

    CJLang Well-Known Member

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    Why even play? You ARE the Bill James of TGG! Just put a W up for the Jets and move on to week 14...
     
    #126 CJLang, Nov 28, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2010
  7. CJLang

    CJLang Well-Known Member

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    Brady hasn't lost at home in the regular season since 2006.... I'm sure you have some deep stat to trump that tho...
     
  8. Wizard Of Odds

    Wizard Of Odds New Member

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    Well I have news for you, all those rookies and 2nd year players are still rookies and 2nd year players. That's not a positive thing really.


    P.S.) Sorry to hear about the law school thing. You could have been an electrician or a machinist or something important, now you'll just be somebody's employee. But perhaps there's still time to change the road you're on...
     
  9. Wizard Of Odds

    Wizard Of Odds New Member

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    That is a useless stat considering it has no impact on recent events. To say you did something 2 or 3 years ago doesn't mean you be able to do it today.
     
  10. Braungeo123

    Braungeo123 New Member

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    obviously you either don't have the capacity to follow my argument or are just ignoring it. The point is that the rookies were playing their second game of their career in game 2 (and first game on the road). If you watch the Pats you will realize that many of these players have improved by leaps and bounds since that game (see Devin McCourty and to lesser extents Cunningham, Spikes). While there are still growing pains they have a lot more experience under their belts and have improved. How can having 11 games of experience not be a positive thing over having 2 games of experience and being as green as possible?
     
  11. Wizard Of Odds

    Wizard Of Odds New Member

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    It's a good thing to have more experience, but you're still a rookie even after 11 games. Last year Sanchez was a rookie and made quite a few rookie mistakes that he's not making this year. But against the Jets, with recievers like Holmes, Edwards and Cotchery a rookie mistake will get you burned. I mean you're not 31st against the pass for nothing are you?
     
  12. wa2k99

    wa2k99 Active Member

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    How about the penalty and turnover stats.
     
  13. Braungeo123

    Braungeo123 New Member

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    You like to cherry pick stats. Yes the Patriots are 31st against the pass, but a lot of the yards allowed have been in garbage time against teams like the steelers and bengals. Additionally we have played many top QBs including peyton, roethlisberger, rivers which will tend to skew things. I am not saying there isn't room for improvement, there most certainly is. But the fact of the matter is that the patriots have the second most interceptions so they are athletic and do make the big play (even in a weaker secondary). additionally according to your flawed logic Patriots average over 30 points a game and the jets score 24, so the patriots will win. But i obviously don't buy into that.

    Also, the last 3 weeks the patriots put up 39, 31 and 45 points so the offense is clicking. One of the defenses they put that up on (the steelers) compares very favorably with the jets, so the patriots can put up that type of offense against good teams.

    Ok, I'm out for the night.
     
  14. dubagedi

    dubagedi New Member

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    I guess if you just look at yardage stats and avoid the numbers actually relevant to wins and losses such as points per game where the Patriots do in fact have an edge.

    Or who wins the turnover battle. The Patriots score more per game than the Jets but give up more points on defense. Both teams have a good turnover ratio but the Patriots are at +11 while the Jets are at +7. These teams are definitely playing at a very close level but considering strength of schedule and points per game I really think the Patriots have a close advantage even knowing I'm biased. With this plus the Pats playing at home and already having lost the first time I think the Jets will have to play a perfect game to win.
     
  15. MayoGate

    MayoGate Active Member

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    ummmmm Im no rocket scientist, but you just killed all your cool stat arguments ..lmao .. cmon grasshopper .. just stop:rofl:
     
  16. bloke911

    bloke911 Active Member

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    To many pages to read but has anyone mentioned Brady's 105.8 QB Rating and league leading 23 TDs?
    I hate him but that's pretty impressive, there's also the +11 TOs.
     
  17. Rockefella

    Rockefella Trolls

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    Maybe B Scott will pull a seymour and knock brady out. Only costs $25000
     
  18. vinsjets

    vinsjets Active Member

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    Nobody cares you're in law school.
    :shit:


    We may have been a weakened team then, but they're a much stronger team now.
     
    #138 vinsjets, Nov 28, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2010
  19. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    the jets have beaten three 9-2 teams this year, the pats and we beat ourselves twice against the ravens and greeen bay.

    besides, the only 'stat' that really matters is SBWWOC:

    Jest 1
    Pats 0

    (SBWWOC = SB wins without cheating)
     
  20. The Sanchise

    The Sanchise Active Member

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    It just doesn't equate. Bengals were awful against the pass and Schotty and Sanchez still went out and screwed the pooch. What matters is study the line when it comes out and study the points. That should give us an excellent educated guess as to how this game will go. Otherwise I don't see any pregame #s indicating possible outcome. I expect Sanchez and company to have a tough time and I think new England will move the ball with success.
     

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