This is a good post but I still disagree with you. I don't think the draft is as random as you think it is, and even if it was doesn't it make sense to actually PICK players. By trading down or out, you limit the amount of players available and the chances for success diminishes. Sure if you strike out on a second rounder eh it sucks but oh well, whereby 1st rounders are more important. I think that is the issue more than anything Belicheck is afraid to strike out with 1st rounders than wanting to stockpile 2nd rounders... also, the window of opportunity in this league is short and when you are blessed to have a franchise QB (who will go down as perhaps the best ever) wouldn't surrounding HIM will good players make more sense than stockpiling for the future? The Pats could have Michael Oher and/or Clay Matthews right now instead of the scads of medicore 2nd rounders and stockpile of picks... Put Either One of them on the Patriots roster and last season instead of losing to the Jets they are SB Champs.Gronkowski, for example is a decent TE and good second round value but Brady could make any TE or RB look good, a GREAT freaking player on Defense for example makes them SCARY GOOD. I know the Pats have been the example of success in the last decade but I think they are doing themselves a disservice with this strategy. Of all teams they most can afford a bust. Why not take a shot at someone who could potentially make you great instead of settling for a safe team around Brady. Obviously I'm biased, but this is why I prefer the Jets style the last couple years. GO OUT and GET THEM if you like them. Sometimes you strike out (Gholston) but if you don't (Revis, Ferguson/Mangold, Sanchez???) you have a great solid core. If Belichick was running the show the Jets end up with NONE of those players.
By his logic, NO it DOES NOT make sense. He is essentially arguing that BB has made the choice to reserve ONE 1st round pick and use it to get an extra 2nd round pick EVERY year. one 1st round pick ====> infinite 2nd round picks You can't argue that this method "limits the amount of players available" because that is exactly the opposite of what it does. While a 1st rounder is likely to be a success, many 2nd rounders will almost certainly give us more success, even if half (or more) of them fail. I don't think that BB is afraid to pick in the 1st either. His has made three picks in the past four years (Solder, McCourty, Mayo, Merriweather) that include a rookie pro-bowl CB, defensive ROY/NFL tackle leader/All-Pro LB, and 2-time pro-bowl S. Obviously Solder can't be judged for success yet. I think he takes talent when he sees it, and doesn't feel pressured to pick when he doesn't. The Oher/Matthews & Jamon Meridith ==> Butler & Tate & Edelman series of trades is ONE example where it might appear that BB is afraid or unintelligent. Also, Michael Oher is overrated. And why wasn't Ben Watson a good TE if Brady has that power? Who was the GREAT defensive player that we were supposed to take instead of Gronk, and how is he doing now?
Yeah our pass rush stunk, but it wasn't our biggest need. We were middle of the pack in sacks (#14), #1 in interceptions (I will agree with Rockafella's post, but calling #1 luck is an insult), and overall our defense was above average (#8) in points allowed. I guess stats can make our DEF look better or worse than it actually was, depending on which ones you choose to use, but with questions marks surrounding both Mankins and Light, I don't understand anyone's argument that we should have addressed pass rush first. Nor do I think it would have made sense to use two 1st when we were able to get great value for it, and had so many other early picks. If you want to question/criticize the Pat's draft then I think you start at #56 Shane Vereen.
lol, I don't really follow NCAA much... I mainly look at drafts from a positional standpoint, but yeah I'm still a little curious to see where we were going with those two RB picks
You as a Patriot fan should know, Merriweather is way overrated. The Patriots get away with terrible drafts because of two things, Top 5 QB of all time and maybe the best coach of all time. When you look at their team they have a ton of weaknesses....RB, WR, OT, OG, DE, OLB, CB....and that's on a team that was 14-2. The reason, Brady & BB. Their goal must be to reach the playoffs every year because that is what they are drafting to do, not to win Super Bowls. i.e. getting rid of Seymour may have cost them a super bowl (or two) but hey they will be set up to make the playoffs next year. As a Jets fan I love their drafts. I just find it amusing that all the talking heads laud the genius of BB when his drafts have been bordeline terrible. The Pats fans give him a pass too. From 2006 the Jets have drafted Mangold, Ferguson, B Smith, L Washington, Revis, Harris, Keller, Lowery, Sanchez, Greene, Slauson while the Pats have drafted O'Connell, Maroney, Chad Jackson, David Thomas, Brace, Crable, McKenzie, Wheatley, Gronkowski, Vollmer, Cunningham, Spikes, Butler, Chung, Meriweather all in the 1st three rounds......Um, I'll go with the Jets drafts despite the fact they've had half as many picks and they drafted the biggest non QB bust of all time .
How is CB a weakness on a team that has McCourty, Bodden, Arrington, and just invested #33 pick at that position? How is OT a weakness on a team that has Light, Vollmer, and just invested a 1st rounder at that position? I don't think that we are as weak at DE as people think either with Ty & Gerrard Warren, Stroud, and Wright. We have question marks, as does everyone else - it's the offseason. The Jets get Cromartie and LT and Holmes to complete your roster, and all of a sudden you all think that the definition of a "weakness" is anyone not of that caliber. Yeah, we have some less than stellar starters, but it's hard to pay your stars and be stacked at every position... if the NFL returns with a salary cap, you will soon know what I am talking about. And why did you leave Mayo and McCourty off of the list of Pats draft picks? (You can also cross off L Washington as he was a 4th rounder) I think that the Pats' successes (Mayo, McCourty, Gronkowski, Vollmer, Spikes, Merriweather) stack up well against the Jets' (Mangold, Ferguson, Revis, Harris, Keller, Sanchez, and to a lesser extent Greene). The biggest difference is that the Jets landed a franchise QB with Sanchez... obviously that is not a realistic expectation for the Pats. Also, remember that for pretty much the entire decade the Pats have been picking far behind the Jets, where the chances of a slam-dunk are much less likely. If you are less than impressed with the results of BB's selections, then I guess I can understand that... but I don't understand the criticism of his overall wheeling-and-dealing strategy... almost every year we end up with an abundance of high picks, and even discarding the picks that we trade away (which is leading to an ever increasing surplus) we still end up taking more high round picks than most other teams. And regarding Merriweather, yeah I think he is overrated in the sense that he has two pro-bowls. But now I would hesitate to use that term, as lately people act as though he is the worst thing to ever set foot on a football field.
The weaknesses I referred to were entering the draft. Obviously the Patriots addressed some of them with the draft. Secondly, I would not necessarily say your rookies last year ultimately will be hits. Just like you can't judge a pick that struggles early until three years, the same goes for rookies that come out of the gates fast. Many players have had excellent rookie years, then are never heard from again. Laurence Maroney is one and Michael Oher (mentioned above) is another. Yes, McCourty, Gronk and Hernandez had great years but we will see. Conversely, last years Jets draft struggled to the tide could be turning. You may be right on CB not being a weakness. I just don't think Bodden is very good. But it will help with Arrington moving to the slot and Butler on the streets. Finally, we will just have to disagree on the comparison of drafts since '06 (Mike T's reign). Mangold and Revis are the best at their position in the entire NFL. D'Brick is a top 5-7 LT in the league. After that you may be able to compare B Smith, Washington, Keller, Greene, Harris, Sanchez to Mayo, McCourty, Vollmer, Meriweather, Chung, Gronkowski but I still think the Jets have the advantage.
Yes, but BB's shotgun strategy needs twice as many picks to get the value that other teams have gotten from moving up and taking a chance on the guys they really want. I'm not knocking his strategy but BB could have had almost any player he wanted in the last several drafts because he had the picks to make it happen. Wouldn't ndamukong suh look good at D end or tackle to you? I think BB is more worried about having to pay these guys and would rather have a bunch of guys in hopes that one or two will turn into superstars. It just is hard to find another Brady.
I left out players like Cunningham and Price, who I think could develop into strong players in the next 1-2 years. The ones that I listed are ones that I personally feel very confident will continue to contribute. And I would like to think that I have watched enough football to know that rookie CBs don't play shutdown coverage at the #1 spot by luck or accident for an entire season. Gronkowski isn't Antonio Gates, but he will get looks in the end zone and will also continue to be a beast blocking and in protection. I really don't see his contributions diminishing. Hernandez, maybe. He didn't have a great end to the season, and whether he has a significant role on this team isn't real clear right now... we will have to see. You keep on bringing up Washington and B Smith... neither fit the criteria you mentioned (3rd round or higher, 2006 and on). And honestly, S Green is starting to look more like a Maroney pick than a resounding success. LT struggled during the second half of the season (especially at the end zone) and Green did nothing to show that he can carry the team. Blame it on your OC or whatever, but when your big, power RB finishes the season with 2TD, i'm not exactly slitting my wrists with jealousy.
How were we supposed to get Suh? He was drafted 2nd overall... and plus any deal to get him would have AT THE VERY LEAST meant giving up McCourty (along with probably our extra 2011 #1). We would have played last season with Arrington and Butler BOTH starting at CB... scary
I love how he put guys like Vollmer, Merriweather, and Chung in the same sentence as Revis, Mangold, and D'brick.
Yeah way to take three of our worst "successes" and compare them to your three best. BTW I never even mentioned Chung (or Hernandez for that matter). If I wanted to change the argument to make side look better, all I would have to do is look from 2007 on instead of 2006 on. Then the comparison would look like this: Pats: Mayo, McCourty, Merriweather, Vollmer, Spikes, Gronkowski Jets: Revis, Harris, Keller, Sanchez or if you don't like that, then we can go back one year further to 2005: Pats: Mankins, Hobbs, Mayo, McCourty, Merriweather, Vollmer, Spikes, Gronkowski Jets: Revis, Harris, Ferguson, Keller, Sanchez, Mangold Should we go one year further and thrown V Wilfork into the mix? He "conveniently" decided to stop at 2006 where the Jets had their best draft and the Pats struck out on Maroney and Chad Jackson.
Trade up and get the player you believe in. The pats have 2 first rounders almost every year. I know It's going against what BB seems to believe in but if I was a Pats fan I would be screaming that we should go get a stud or two with all these picks. The shotgun approach does work but more often you get "average" players and not the brady's or suh's of the world. You have a better chance getting a stud at the front of the first round and not the back.
...and you think we would have been better off last year with Suh at DT and Arrington & Butler starting at CB with Wilhite seeing significant time? (not to mention the future 1st round pick that would be gone) I understand your theory, but IMO you're doing a terrible job of arguing it. Also count how many times we have actually had two 1st rounders... it is not every year, or even "almost every year".
I am more talking about the shotgun strategy that BB uses. Maybe this will work better for you. Personally, if I was to take your since 2007 argument I would rank the players you listed in this order. 1) Revis 2) Harris 3) Sanchez 4) Mayo 5) McCourty 6) Spikes 7) Merriweather 8) Keller 9) Gronk 10) Vollmer I think having the first 3 is better than 6 out of 10. BB'S shotgun strategy got you strong players but not the better players in the comparison.
If the Pats keep trading back and having questionable drafts, Tom will be full gay and retired by the time they use them.
Been following along without adding anything to this point. The 2006 draft was a complete disaster. Using their first pick on Maroney and then trading up for Chad Jackson were obviously both mistakes in hindsight. 2007 was also horrible. Merriweather has been OK but is overrated. He's not truly a Pro Bowl caliber guy, IMO. They got nothing else that year, but they did use several picks to trade for Welker and Moss. And given the season that followed (despite the ending), it's hard to argue against that. 2008 was just OK. Obviously they hit on Mayo, and in doing so addressed a huge need at that time. '08 was also the draft where they lost their later 1st round pick because of Spygate. 2009, to this point, looks like it was a nice haul for them. Chung is still a little inconsistent but has shown flashes and I think he'll be a good middle-of-the-road safety. But that draft added some depth, and Vollmer was a nice score. Picking up Edelman in the 7th round was also a great move. He's not Welker but he's a serviceable fill-in and a good special teams guy. 2010, so far, looks like a great haul, and probably the best NE draft since 2003 or 2004. McCourty, Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Spikes were all significant contributors. They got a solid punter in Mesko. Jermaine Cunningham showed signs toward the middle to end of the season that he can make some plays. (He's the one who got to Manning on the game-ending INT in the Colts matchup.) And at this point, no one knows how 2011 will work out. Solder and Dowling have a lot of potential... both could be starting if there's football this season. Having two firsts and two seconds next year (again) will put the Patriots in position to move up and down the board pretty freely (again). Will they? Probably not. That extra first-round pick is almost like an insurance plan for Belichick. It'll be more interesting than ever to see what happens when and if free agency opens up. According to things I've read and heard, there's a possibility that teams also have trades worked out but can't announce anything until the labor issue clears up.
It doesn't matter who I listed because you putting those guys in the same sentence as Revis, Mangold, and Brick is a bit ridiculous. That's like me putting Shonn Greene's name in with McCourty. Yeah, Greene is a talented player but as of right now McCourty is a Pro Bowl talent and Greene isn't.
Sanchez is only a top 3 in the sense that his position is more valuable than the others. Mayo and McCourty both rank higher at their position. As I mentioned earlier, we clearly have that position filled... and that being the case, I would rather take the 6 (and I think you are underestimating Vollmer... to be fair I might rank Spikes a bit lower though).
