Good post. I think it's impossible that someone's head won't roll, but here's what it comes down to IMHO. Woody's not a football guy. He's not Jerry Jones, who played with Jimmy Johnson at Arkansas and has some sort of decent football IQ. He's a businessman, a football fan, and a guy who sees publicity as driving revenue. Woody's football sense is very dependent on Tanny. They meet EVERY DAY during the season. They are presumably very close and obviously he's trusted his judgement over the years. He's also facing a mammoth debt for the stadium, and is going to see sharp declines in concessions and all other retail sales from the, what, maybe 50+% no shows that will happen over the next few weeks of the season? With all of this in play, will Woody have the stones to dismiss the guy who he's depended on to make sense of the football side of the NFL? A guy who's his friend, who he's socialized with, had kids over for play-dates, etc? In other words, can Woody do to Tanny what Tanny did to Mangini? - fire a close friend?
It may well be that for PR reasons, Woody makes a change. But I simply do not believe that Woody can honestly blame Tanny for everything that is wrong with this team. That's because Woody was in on too many of the moves. So, that being the case, my prediction of what they will at least try to do is they will not outright fire Tanny, but will reshuffle the FO responsibilities. The way they handled Bradway is precedent for this approach. They will bring someone in to run personnel decisions on some level, at least in theory. Hiring such a person could also ease the transition to getting Tebow out of town. Say the new guy wants to go in a new direction or something, the option O didn't work, etc... (Where that leaves Sparano is not clear, of course, but he's not a major player in this scenario.) The problem with that scenario is the plausibility of it will depend on the qualifications of who they try to bring in. And right now i don't see any real football person of quality wanting to come to the Jets and work for Woody. So they will probably get some lightweight to play that role and try to ram it down the fans' throats. That's what I think will happen.
I really hope that Woody doesn't have blinders on when it comes to the team on the field in front of him. It's possible that he does. We all have been in situations where we went with less than optimal choices because it was painful to do the right thing.
I think the smart money's on this outcome. Tanny will be demoted to some sort of director of salary cap and someone else will be brought in to run the talent end of things. But who's going to have the football IQ to make that hire? Woody, who's clearly not a football guy? Bradway? Perish the thought. Rex? Rex has no business having input into who knows how to evaluate talent.
Yes, this is a huge problem. The answer clearly is no one. Add to it the I would have to think would an obvious reluctance for any really talented football guy to come to the Jets, and this approach will not be the solution. But it is the most likely scenario. The problem is Woody, and until Woody is no longer the owner, this sort of problem will always be present.
The notion that the Jets are a disaster is wrong. The Jets are an outright reflection of the current NFL model. For the most teams are pretty even with the exception of a handful of teams that drafted well and developed QB's who will always be in the mix. Any given year what seperates 6 and 10 win teams is mostly luck. The Jets have that kind of management that is capable of getting lucky and winning 10 or having a few injuries or bad breaks and lossing 10. Not much different then almost every other NFL team. The NFL is selling competitive mediocrity and the Jets are on the Merry go Round. The chances of Woody Johnson picking the next great football mind to run this team or the next top 10 QB to operate it on the field are 1 in 32. The NFL is becoming a horrible league, it's not just the Jets that suck.
Somehow the Steelers, Packers, Patriots, Giants and Ravens have managed to stay above the general suckitude for quite a while, being relevant in most decades and dominant in some. I get that parity is the rule but the great management teams have always been able to swim above the muck that drags everybody else down. I put the Ravens in the list above only because they've been very good since moving to Baltimore. They really don't belong with the other 4 teams and you probably could replace them with whoever the hot two or three year team is at the moment (Atlanta, Houston, SF, etc.)
Yes they have but can anyone argue that any of those teams that have stayed above the overall mediocrity are really great teams? As the product contiues to decline management will continue to matter even more so but that doesn't mean those clubs are great in the clasic sense. They aren't. To many teams, to many divisions, to many playoff teams. It's all about the bucks. Reduce the league by half and you will have better rosters and better coaching. Reduce the playoff teams by half and games will matter that much more. Reduce the schedule by a third and more good players will be fresher and last through the season.
Save for a couple players on the defense, I think they should stay in tact. Blow up the offense though.
I don't disagree with the general thrust of your observation, but you can also make the argument that the Jets are lucky to have four wins right now. The win in the first Miami game was more about unforced errors on their part than any real achievements by the Jets. The win over the Colts similarly was one of great timing after their emotional win against GB, with their HC's health problems getting everyone psyched up, followed by the let down the Jets were in the right place at the right time to receive. I would say the Rams game had elements of luck, too, although it is frankly hard to remember that game after the debacle on Turkey Day night. Standings of course are based on won lost records. But I think the points differential for the Jets has got to be far worse than any other teams at 4-7, too. And that differential takes into account second half points scored by the Jets when they had no shot at winning. Take it all together, and the Jets may well end up being a 6-10 team, and like you say in general that is not all that far from the 9-7 it might take to win a playoff spot. But the factors I mention mean that the Jets are actually worse than that, and are at this point very far from contending, at least unless something huge changes with the team.
Shouldn't Tannebaum be to blame for the lack of moves in 2012 off season? I don't think that has anything to do with Woody. Tanny needs to go. He invested most of our money in the wrong places and it leaves big holes in others.
I guess if all that was left in the world were fat, unattractive, not very bright women in the world I would enjoy sex wit fat, unattractive not very bright women. THis is what the NFL is now selling. The problem isn't the Jets the problem is the NFL. We are all worrying about our little ship going down when the entire ocean smells of dead fish. It's time the NFL fans in mass started saying what Jets fans are saying on this board. The product stinks, clean it up or we stop paying for it.
The issue here is that we don't really know to what extent the decisions, and non-decisions, this past off season were totally or even mostly Tanny's fault. We do know Woody gets involved in the big decisions. If Woody wanted Tebow, how much is it Tanny's fault they went and got him? I don't absolve Tanny of blame by any means. But I have to disagree with you that this mess has nothing to do with Woody. He is not a disinterested and uninvolved owner. He wants to be another Jerry Jones.
First of all the season is far from over and the Jets can still win out and make the playoffs. I think they'll beat the cards on Sunday. Secondly, Ryan is the best HC the Jets have had since Tuna in '99 and Ryan is the most successful HC since Weeb. Third, Tannenbaum has been the most successful GM in Jets history. Fourth, getting rid of either of them or both of them in Rex's 4th season is not going to happen - Edwards never got to 1 championship game and he was HC for 5 yrs. If the NYJ don't make the playoffs there will be changes and those will likely be on the CS and roster. Much to the chagrin of the darksiders, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team finish the season strong.
Mark this down that the NYJs are now in the crapper & will keep going further into the crapper for the next 7/10 years :sad:
No. The Jets actually made several good moves in the 2012 offseason. I would have liked to have seen the Jets sign Grubbs but for all we know Grubbs was set on going to the Saints who gave him 5yrs & 36M. We understand that you think Woody is not involved in financial and personnel decisions. but you have no facts that support your belief. In fact by all appearances, Woody is very involved in all Jets operational decisions. Tanny isn't going anywhere since there are still 5 games left to play and he's been the most successful GM this organization has had since Parcells (who btw brought Mr. T to NYJ) and Mr. T also has a contract through 2014. So the only way Mr. T is likely to go anywhere is if he opts to move to a GM job w/another franchise - which is unlikely to happen. Whose money? Are you the owner of the NYJ?? If you are going to make this type of a statement you need to be far more specific as to what transactions you think are bad business decisions. For Example, do you think signing Laron Landry was a bad move? Do you think firing Schotty was a bad move? Was adding Chaz Schilens a bad move?
I did like our 2012 draft for the most part, but the one thing I didn't understand was that we didn't do anything at all to fix our OL issues, namely RT. We stuck with Wayne Hunter until the last second, despite him being the biggest catalyst to Sanchez getting sacked the year before, and when he continued to suck we finally started Austin Howard and traded Hunter 2 games into the preseason. We were lucky that Howard became somewhat serviceable in that time or the line would have been a disaster again this year. I say somewhat serviceable because Howard isn't all that good, although better than WH. I can't remember any good moves last off season. We gave Pou'ha a nice contract and he was injured almost the entire first half of the season. We didn't bring in any weapons for Sanchez, all the good moves were done on defense. I haven't seen any facts that support the latter. Could you please show me some evidence as to how Woody is involved with contract decisions? Are you telling me the Sanchez contract was Woody's idea? The same can be said for Woody, Rex and Sanchez. They've had more success than just about every other HC, Owner, GM and QB in Jets history. (By success, I'm strictly talking Win-Loss record). I'm talking about contract decisions, for example extending Sanchez to squeeze a few mill under the cap when he hasn't lived up to his original contract. Overpaying Holmes, overpaying Harris, overpaying Pou'ha, overpaying Sanchez, overpaying Revis, letting Braylon walk, making WR a revolving door, watching the line get worse, WR core get worse, RB situation get worse etc etc etc. Our money is locked up in players who are over payed, and we aren't getting our money's worth. As a result, we've been unable to sign good depth players because we overpay average / slightly above average players. Our 2nd stringers and sometimes firsts are bottom of the barrel PS or UFA players. The biggest error we've had in recent times was being so adamant about beefing up the defense while letting the offense go to shit. You have to have a balance. Landry was a good move, Schilens not so much. We waited an entire season before replacing Braylon and still haven't adequately replaced LT. If we drafted a WR early in 2011, Braylon's replacement would probably be contributing by now rather than learning the basic mechanics of catching when we need production now. I love Wilkerson and Ellis, but the offense clearly needs work. The defense can hold its own, even with some slow linebackers.
Sanchez guaranteed $8.25 million in 2013 For New York Jets fans wishing for a quarterback change in 2013, don’t hold your breath. Early signs are pointing to Mark Sanchez being the starting quarterback in New York for the fifth consecutive year. According to Sanchez’s contract, he is guaranteed $8.25 million in salary from the Jets in 2013 with no offset language or buyouts. Sanchez also has an offseason workout bonus of $500,000. Essentially, Sanchez can make just under $9 million from the Jets next year even if he doesn’t play a single snap. This kind of guaranteed money makes Sanchez virtually impossible to trade or release in the offseason. The only other option for the Jets would be to bench Sanchez in favor of another quarterback, such as Tim Tebow. But the Jets would have nearly $9 million sitting on the bench. That wouldn’t make much business sense. These are the repercussions of New York’s five-year, $58.25 million extension with Sanchez last March. The move freed up immediate cap room but also placed Sanchez as the starting quarterback for 2012 and 2013. It was a risky investment, especially now that Sanchez is struggling in his fourth season. Following the extension, I wrote it was clear New York general manager Mike Tannenbaum and head coach Rex Ryan were going “all in” with Sanchez. If Tannenbaum and Ryan survive this season, this trio all will be simultaneously fighting for their jobs in 2013. http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/51360/sanchez-guaranteed-8-25-million-in-2013
