FWIW I just posted up a mock offseason. I think I found a way to get watson without screwing over the future
The issue I find with that mock is the same issue with the other Lions trade you posited, and that’s that the I genuinely believe 4 QBs will go off the board before 7. The Texans would know that is a strong likelihood has well. They would end up Trading Watson to Miami instead, since they could offer the same package but with #3 instead of #7. The only reason the Jets are the best spot for Watson is because they hold #2 instead of #3. Do you think the Texans would accept 7, 23, and 2022 1st when 3, 18, and 2022 1st is on the table?
it's going to be interesting for sure. we don't know what miami has on the table. the lions want number 2. so will the texans if they move on from watson. the 2 pick is very valuable this year it could be a bidding war which could keep watsons price more resonable. Honestly I don't think anything will happen. The jets supposedly called about him a week ago. haven't heard any news since. I think houston is pricing him out of anyone's range. He'll probably stay with houston in the long run
It’s the single strangest and most unique situation I’ve ever come across in the NFL. A QB with the combination of his age and proven skill has literally never been available, which makes it so hard to know anything. Most other situations have enough similar past happenings that you can use them as a references... not this one though. As the situation has unfolded over the past couple of weeks and I’m learning more, I’m finding it more and more likely that he moves on. I never really believed it early but I’m starting to. With all of the conversation on here with you and others, a few things are pretty clear to me now. The Jets and the Dolphins are the only real contenders to acquire him. Exactly how committed the Dolphins are to acquire him is a mystery to me. I have 100% confidence that they would like him, but because of their situation I doubt they would be as intense in their pursuit as the Jets, not to mention they would have to offer more assets by default just to get the Texans to bite on #2 vs #3 overall. No other team has the liquid draft capital or liquid cap space to compete with a even a reasonable Jets trade package. As a result it seems to me that something almost unfathomable is happening. The rest of the league is essentially realizing the futility of bidding against the Jets, and while it sets the floor for compensation, it also sets a bit of ceiling as well. If Watson is as firm in his conviction as it is being reported, the Jets essentially need to remain steadfast and avoid bidding against themselves. The cherry on top is the fact that less than a year ago, we witnessed Joe Douglas negotiate a steal of a trade in a very high profile situation. I suspect that Caserio will be a better negotiator than Schneider, but that’s speculation on my part, and it’s such a tough spot for him to come in and navigate in the first month of his job. I wouldn’t look too much at the radio silence from the Jets side, the Texans will hold their ground until the last second. It doesn’t benefit them at all to pull the trigger on anything until the final moment.
for all the success the pats have had, they've not been good at drafting or trading. cassario comes from the pats who are also famous for not dealing with players and shipping them off if they don't buy in to the patriot way. i'm guessing the stall is ownership. they don't want to get rid of a guy they just committed like 200 million to who is the face of the franchise. but your right it's completely unprecedented. and also the jets and fins are the only teams with enough draft capital and cap room to be actual contenders to land him. then you have the wild card of the lions who are looking to move stafford for a 1st and use that to move up from 7 for a QB which increases the value of the jets pick at 2. I'm assuming houston won't want to pick at 3 because QBs are going 1 and 2 this draft no matter what. I think that's huge if they do move watson they will want their pick of QBs and not have to take the 3rd one off the board when they can have the 2nd one. also watson needs to agree becuase the no trade clause but it does seem he's ok with jets or miami from the reports we've seen so far. It seems that watson will be a texan, jet, or dolphin for 2021 i don't see any other options. I know as a fan it's easy to throw stuff out but you have to also look at it from a texans stand point. they will do whats best for their franchise which will be trying to get the jets and fins in a bidding war. thankfully we are at the 2 which has to be more important to them knowing that if they trade with miami 2 QBs will be off the board when they pick instead of just 1. The other thing is well the NFL is unpredictable and late rises have happened before. Sam was the number 1 overall pick to start the 2017 season and all the way up until about a month before the draft then rumors of baker surpassing him came up. in the end dorsey took baker who began 2017 as a 2nd round talent and used the year to jump up to 1st overall. maybe wilson or fields overtake tlaw as jax pick which is possible. texans need to weight all that in. they were gonna draft mahomes at 12 but the chiefs jumped them and they wound up taking watson instead. If the texans are smart they will want to trade with the jets
Yea, if the Texans are smart, and they haven't been, they will make it look like they would be happy moving forward with Tua as their starting QB. The Dolphins would be happy to play along to raise the price for the Jets.
I don't see why they would want tua when they can draft a better QB 2nd overall. at this point tua isn't worth any more then sam. it also means miami gives up on him after 1 season which isn't likely. only the cards did that with rosen and he was a top 10 pick 4th QB taken not a top 5 2nd QB taken like darnold and tua. I have a hard time beliviign miami with a young team lots of picks and cap room would sell the farm for watson and not stick with the guy they drafted 5th overall
I'm not saying they would want Tua, it's been reported that they don't. But the Texans want to get the most out of the Jets, and the Dolphins want the Jets to pay as much as possible. The Dolphins are really the only team that have the draft picks to raise the price for the Jets, so why wouldn't the Texans and Dolphins try to use that to their advantage?
or they price each other out and watson says i'll decline anything that isn't the jets so take a fair offer. if they move him they will want a new Qb and 2nd overall gets that. we can leverage the lions as well they want to move up
Sure, if Watson decides the Jets are the only team he'll go to, the Jets have a huge advantage. Until that happens, it would be surprising for the Dolphins and Texans to not use eachother to drive the price up.
ad we have the lions that want the 2 pick as well which puts us in a good posiiton. JD has his work cut out for him
The Jets already have an advantage, the ball is in their court now. The thing is, Watson doesn’t know what the Jets mindset is. He has actively cast his line and is waiting for a bite. The Jets cannot communicate with him so at some point Watson will somehow discover how serious the Jets are, but it has to be carefully done to avoid tampering. Watson cannot even consider saying he will only go to the Jets because if for whatever reason the Jets don’t pull the trigger, Watson has fucked himself. He has to be sure of their intent first.
the NFL needs to have an individual player salary cap: no player on any team can exceed 10% of the cap in any year. qbs get too much money, credit, or blame for a team's record. jmo.
10% of $200 million is $20 million. that is plenty for just one player. the rest of the team, 52 guys, get only $180 million to split amongst them. btw, brady played in foxborough through 6 super bowl wins for less than that.
no, one guy gets $20 million, while the rest average $3 million? call it my opinion, but qbs get too much money. kills teams having quality depth. like when the jets signed chad after 6 games to a cap killing contract, and then lost 3/5 offensive line due to cap issues. like when payton had excessive salary at indy and the team went winless after he got injured because they had no line or defense.
