yeah he’s an interesting case. He’s been the OC for the best offense. But yet he’s been passed over multiple years by multiple teams. I don’t know why, but my personal opinion is that he hasn’t really earned any credit from the KC offensive success. I think (and I’m guessing many others do as well) that that offense’s success is 100% Andy Reid (hey, it’s his offense and he calls the plays) and Mahomes (a generational talent). I think that offense was great before he was the OC, and it would continue to be great if he were to leave. so he’s probably fighting that battle. But there’s more to coaching thanX’s and O’s, and by all accounts he seems to be a great leader. so either he’s not getting that across in his interviews, or there’s something else going on that we just can’t see. what he really may need to do, is take an OC job with another team and show that he can build an offense without Reid or Mahomes....
he has the best QB in the NFL, lots of their success is him doing things other Qbs can't. he has andry ried as the HC who's one of the best coaches and runs some of the best offenses in the NFL. so he's just kinda seen as someone who is "there" but not an integral part of the success of their offense.
Watson has really good representation at this point. He's not happy in Houston and wants to explore out and they've gotten him onto the back pages in half a dozen markets early on with that notion. Why is this important? Because this is going to be the cap hell year for a lot of teams and Watson has a fairly cheap cap hit this year. Because the amount of cap space people are going to have after free agency is very low. Because everything is going to settle into a kind of tar-bound hell for most teams by the time the draft is over. Nobody knows what revenues are going to look like aside from the TV money. Nobody is on a multi-year plan right now from a cap perspective other than being generally conservative because things aren't looking like they were when the last CBA was negotiated. Note that the CBA has a fairly strict apportionment of revenues among the biggest revenue streams: the players get 48% of all those revenues. This is not a problem moving forward, however the contracts given out in 2019 and 2020 thought that revenues were going to be steadily increasing over time - not getting cut in 2020 and looking dicey in 2021 also. So those contracts, like the one that Watson signed in 2020 are going to become lead weights on some teams caps. Teams that did several of the contracts, like the Texans, really have no way out at this point. So Watson's reps are trying to get out ahead of the whole disaster, a disaster for which Watson and a few other players are going to become the poster boys when all the fallout is clear. Getting him out of Houston, where his contract is just a huge part of the problem and likely to be perceived as such, is probably the best move for him at this point. The Texans aren't going to be good for the next couple of seasons and his contract is just going to be a bigger and bigger part of the problem as that happens. The pressure on him to renegotiate is going to be tremendous as it becomes clear that he cannot carry the team and his cap hit is killing their chances to bring more talent in or even retain their own. It's just a great campaign they are on to get him out from under the weight of the problem the Texans cannot get out from under.
just a small correction. cap is based on previous season. the 2020 cap wasn't affected at all because it was based on 2019 revenue. 2020 is the 1st year the cap will be affected. it should have been around 210 mil but due to covid and negations it'll be a minimum 175 mil but people are predicting it could be around 180mil. 2022 is very uncertain could be low again under 200 mil or could jump up to 230mil. that's a big difference.
Yes, the first season the cap will be affected is 2021. However the contracts given out in 2020 were based on the principle that only 2021's cap would be reduced. It is better than 50/50 at this point that 2022 and 2023 will also see lower revenue than the contracts given out in 2020 projected. There are a lot of different angles in play at this point. Some teams will want to 'forgive' a certain percentage of the cap for affected years. Those teams spent heavily on contracts in 2019 and 2020 and are really screwed if they are forced to adhere to the projected cap. This leaves them in the position of either having to wring concessions out of players they did not splurge on in 2020, which will go over terribly in any locker room where it happens, or cut some players they had not planned to cut to make the cap room they need. In almost no cases can they force adjustments in the contracts given out in 2019 and 2020 because those deals are still in the guaranteed money phases of the contract. Some teams that did not spend heavily in 2019 and 2020 will argue that cap concessions made to help the afflicted teams are already being made as a general rule, since the amount the cap declines in 2021 is not reflective of the actual revenue losses in 2020. They will argue that the big contracts given out in 2020, like Deshaun Watson and Laremy Tunsil's big deals in Houston were just bad business and should not be salvaged beyond the general forgiveness that a higher lower salary cap has already given them. The reality is that the owners collectively do not want to have the cap weakened by allowing some teams to get out from under bad decisions made in a bad business environment. I made the supposition above that 2022 and 2023 were likely to have lower revenue projections than that projected in 2020. This is due to a number of factors the simplest of which is that NFL attendance is unlikely to return to normal levels in 2021. We know now that the virus is here and likely to be here all year. We may get a minor respite in the hottest months of the summer in the northern hemisphere but the virus will be going wild in the southern hemisphere during those months in the places unable to contain it's spread. In the fall it will resurge in the north again and we will be back down under our second year in a row of lockdowns. In 2022 the TV contracts will be up for renewal. For the first time in many years NFL TV ratings were down in 2020. It was only an 8% drop but that they dropped at all in a period where people were basically confined to their homes is telling. People weren't able to go to NFL games and yet the ratings dropped. Assuming ratings are not down again or static at the lower level my guess is the bidding for the network rights will be ok but that the networks will begin asking for clauses that protect them in the case of ratings declines over time. If we get a static ratings level or another decline it is hard to project that the NFL TV deals will be bigger than the last round. The point of all of the above is that there is no predictability about what revenues are going to look like in 2021 or 2022. Given that the cap is fixed to revenues it would seem that contracts executed in 2019 and 2020 are likely to be bad value, maybe very bad value for the near term. Getting out of those is likely to be favorable and acquiring them quite unfavorable.
If they planned for 5 years of lower cap in the cap reconciliation stuff they were doing recently then the 2019 and 2020 contracts are even worse. Those contracts were based on $210M cap in 2021 not $175-180M. I think ultimately they're going to have to come to some kind of mitigation agreement on the contracts signed in those two years. However I wouldn't bet on that mitigation extending to teams who willingly took on the deals after knowing the caps were going to be lower. There are minefields all over the map on the cap side at this point.
Yesterday you were asked to research how the Bills did their rebuild. But that was before we knew your idea of research is reading twitter.
You mean when I responded to you twice about how no players on the Bills offense in 2017 are currently on the team? Or how only two draft picks total from 2017 are still on the team? I guess you missed that. “Missed that”.
Just wave the white flag on this one. You tried to make a point and it didn’t work out. In fact all you ended up doing was saying the Bills did exactly what I want the Jets to do. At least we finally agreed.
it's a contingency so they wouldn't have to go back to the table every year. it's pretty typical in big negations like that. I don't think they expect it to last 5 years. it's a just in case thing
I agree - but there's a lot of space between believing Sam is the future and believing we have to mortgage the future to trade for a QB that may or may not work out here. Like I said earlier in this thread, if we can get Watson at a reasonable price I'm all for it. If we have to trade three 1's (or more!!) then I'd much rather build through the draft - including a QB.
I find it funny how a couple years ago there were tons of posters who wanted to trade multiple first rounders for Khalil Mack and give him a giant contract even though we were a shitty team with less draft capital than we currently have. And how much heat I got for opposing the idea. Yet now we may be able to trade for an elite quarterback who's younger than Mack was, and there are people who aren't even willing to give up a Mack-like haul for him. Yeah most of them probably aren't the same people, but still, that this is even a thing is crazy.
What I don't understand is the members of Team Deshaun just can't stomach the idea that someone might want to approach the future of the team in a different way than they are suggesting. This thread has reached Political Forum level ugliness a few times already and there's still over 50 days left til the league year begins. Pace yourselves guys.
Youre misreading this. I myself would be perfectly content staying the course should that be what we do. My issue with people here is consistently repeating the same old tired, factually incorrect shpiel of “WERE GONNA HAVE NO PICKS OR MONEY” or “WE ARE ABANDONING THE REBUILD”. There’s not a damn thing wrong with moving forward under current circumstances. A lot of teams would love it. All I’m saying is even more teams would love to be where we would be if we trade Watson and still have first round picks plus a ton of money.
I think the reason could be that some of the people against trading what amounts to Justin Fields and Jamal Adams for a 25 year old QB with the highest completion percentage of all time who has averaged 4300 passing yards with 30 TD and 10 INT in his first 3 full seasons to go with 500 rushing yds and 5 rushing TDs on a terribly run team think the people that are excited to make that trade are foolishly abandoning the only chance to build a contender.
