Could we have been THAT OFF in our evaluation of Sam Darnold ? Could every "expert" prognosticator be wrong ? What if it everything we said in these forums about Bowles, Bates, Gates, etc....was true ? Let's give Sam another year UNLESS JoeD and Saleh (can he evaluate QB's ??) are in love with Fields or Wilson.
I've done this over and over again and the reality just doesn't change much over time. The latest version completed an hour ago: Pick 1 - Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, JaMarcus Russell, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Jeff George, Troy Aikman, Vinny Testaverde, John Elway, Steve Bartkowski, Jim Plunkett, Terry Bradshaw 21 picked, 8 stars, 8 starters w/benefit of the doubt on recent draftees. Pick 2 to 12 - Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez, Matt Ryan, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Joey Harrington, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Ryan Leaf, Steve McNair, Kerry Collins, Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Rick Mirer, David Klingler, Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, Jim Everett, Chuck Long, Todd Blackledge, Art Schlichter, Jim McMahon, Rich Campbell, Jack Thompson, Phil Simms, Richard Todd, Bert Jones, Jerry Tagge, Archie Manning, Dan Pastorini, Mike Phipps 52 picked, 9 stars w/benefit of the doubt on recent draftees, 14 starters w/benefit of the doubt on recent draftees. Pick 13 to 24 - Dwayne Haskins, Johnny Manziel, E.J. Manuel, Brandon Wheeden, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn, Aaron Rodgers, J.P. Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Chad Pennington, Cade McKnown, Todd Marinovich, Chris Miller, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Marc Wilson, Steve Fuller, Doug Williams, Steve Pisarkiewicz, John Reaves 23 picked, 3 stars, 5 starters. Pick 25 to 36 - Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, Paxton Lynch, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Brock Osweiler, Tim Tebow, Kevin Kolb, Jason Campbell, Patrick Ramsey, Drew Brees, Jim Druckenmiller, Tommy Maddox, Brett Favre, Browning Nagle, Mike Elkins, Jim Harbaugh, Dan Marino, Neil Lomax, Tommy Kramer, Gary Huff, Dennis Shaw 24 picked, 5 stars, 7 starters. Jordan Love being warehoused in GB. You get a real kick out of the #1 pick. I break everybody else down into tiers of 11, 12 and 12 in the first 36 picks. 2 to 12 is a big step down from #1 overall. 13 to 24 is a step down from 2 to 12. 25 to 36 kicks ass and almost competes on the #1 level. QB picks after #1 are a total crapshoot. Teams that pick in the 2-12 range are just rolling the dice harder. Teams that pick in the 25-36 range are getting a huge benefit from trying to acquire a great QB relatively cheaply. Collectively 2-12 are about the same at finding a star and a starter as 13-36, this despite more QB's being picked in the 2-12 range than from 13-36 combined.
