you make alot of points here that I'd love to counter but too busy at the moment so I'll only address the one I find most glaring ... not sure where your getting your 15% figure based on a 10-6 record. sounds like your picking it out of the sky. this is way off from reality. I think the number is more like an 80% success rate for 10-6 teams based on the history of the current playoff format. if we win our 10 games we're most likely playing on Wildcard weekend. I'll get back to you on the rest later.
Cinci is the big challenge. They have Pitt and Balt left on the schedule. Pitt in Pitt is a hard place to win. Balt in the last game of the season with Ray Lewis back and fighting for a division title is not the best place for a rookie QB. Also don't count out Houston even with Leinart because they can run and are playing amazing defense. And what is to say they don't have a typical brain fart and lose to cleveland or arizona while they look ahead for those other games? Cleveland has played well the last 6 weeks - 2 wins and in every game but one.
