The 2 Choices, and the 2 Teams to Watch

Where's Bill O'Brien when you need him...

 

Good point. Stafford has been hurt pretty much every single year of his career. He just plays through it because he's a warrior. Can Wilson do the same?

 

It doesn't necessarily have to all be draft capital in 2021. Other teams might buy into that dumb value chart that Noam is constantly referencing and undervalue their future picks.

 

To me the two options are not that cut and dry. It depends as to how many QBs in this year draft they like and how closed are they ranked. If they are very closely ranked, which I doubt, then he might work the phones and drop down a couple of spots for a good load of picks. But if Wilson is the one the team rated top of its class, which I believe, then jump all over it with the second pick. Unless none of this years QBs have a higher potential than Sam in our new system, which is extremely doubtful, not drafting a QB with our high pick is not an option.

 

Great post. The Bills didn't choose to build their team first and then look for a QB. That's ridiculous and a total misjudgment of what the Bills did and why. They opted to build first because they didn't like Watson or Mahomes. If they had, they would have taken one of them. NO NFL team chooses to build their team first. That's a dumb fan misperception. It is NOT a valid way to build a team. IMO it's a stupid way to build a team. It may make your team more competitive, but pretty much ensures that unless you get really lucky, you'll never get a topnotch QB, and more than likely, never make it to or win a SB. It will pretty much guarantee that you'll be mediocre winning 7-9 games a year. It's settling for mediocrity out of fear of failure. It's playing it safe. It supports the ridiculous fan fantasy idea of sneaking into the playoffs, getting hot and then winning a SB. It's setting the bar low and being willing to accept mediocrity. I hate that crap and would never accept it.

 

Thank you for setting the record straight. The idea that any NFL team would choose to build first and then look for a QB is totally preposterous. It's an epic failure in logic and reasoning, and shows a lack of understanding of how the NFL works and NFL teams function. It's mind boggling to me that any knowledgeable fan would go down that rabbit hole.

 

This. One takes the QB when one has the opportunity, especially when one hasn't had a topnotch QB in 40 years or more. (Sam could have perhaps been one if he had fixed his flaws and the Jets had built around him on offense.) If one is worried about getting the rookie killed or damaging his psyche, then you let him sit for a year and you do everything you can in terms of trades, FA and the draft to fix the OL and/or add better skill position players around him, so he can start the following year. The defense doesn't have to be fixed in order for the QB to start, only the offense around the QB. If you have the right scheme that fits what the QB does well, then he should be ready to play his second season.

IMO there are several ways in which teams screw it up when they get the QB they like, and sadly, the Jets did them all with Sam. One way is in not sitting the QB for a year, instead thinking that since he was a top 10 pick or 1st round pick, he has to start immediately, and they wind up throwing the QB to the wolves. Another way is that they don't build around him. They don't ensure that he has a very good OL and topnotch skill position players around him. They draft DL instead. Another way is that they often try to fit a square peg into a round hole. That is they draft a QB whose talents and what he does best really doesn't fit their scheme. So he's never comfortable or confident, and not given a very good chance to succeed. Still another way is when they hire coaches who don't know how to develop young QBs, i.e., they hire defensive HCs, don't hire a QB Coach at all or hire one with no track record of developing QBs, and hire OCs who want to implement a scheme that doens't fit the QBs talents. The other way is when they go through 2 HCs and 2 different OCs and offensive schemes in the QB's first 3 years in the NFL.

 

This is incorrect, especially for the Jets, or any other rebuilding team.

Using the #2 pick, or the #3 plus three seconds, or whatever golden draft capital you use on a QB, is the largest draft investment a team makes. Why would you use all that currency and then throw the asset into a situation where the odds of them failing, or being ruined, or getting hurt, are considerably higher? That is a terrible way to protect your investment and a dangerous path to needing to do it again a few years later - which continues the drain of quality draft capital. It is a terrible way to build. Look around you because thats where we are right now. Three years after sinking a massive investment into one position we are faced with using our best draft capital in a decade on the same position.

The smart way to rebuild is to first build enough of a solid offensive core to assure that investment has the best chance to succeed. The main thrust is assembling the best o-line possible. I dont mean drafting rookie linemen with the QB and hoping the rooks don't bust. I mean making sure the line is proven first. That is the most important thing. Then it helps to have at least 1 WR who can separate regularly, a solid running game to keep the pass rush honest, etc.

This is the proven way to rebuild a broken offense and I can almost guarantee it is what we will be doing. We will build our offense this season and take a QB next season. Count on a trade down on draft day.

(Also, its how the Bills and the Dolphins have rebuilt.)

 

Play Sam and trade down. SanFran package would be fantastic. The more JD and shift to 2022-3 the better.

Also, sitting a rookie QB for a yr or two is nuts. Teams have to make a HUGE financial commitment to their QB after the 3rd season (where we are now with Sam). Teams don't wanna make that commitment after only one season of actual play.

Also, taking a rookie QB too early in the rebuild is nuts too. First, he'll get killed, 2nd, by the time the re-build is done it will be time to start tearing it down to pay your FQB.

 

Good writeup MD.

I think at this point everyone knows my preference - take Wilson at #2 and use the other early picks to build up the OL. I could stomach scenarios involving trading down and taking another QB in the first round but I'd prefer to take Wilson at 2.

One thing's for sure, we'll all be holding our collective breath when Roger steps up to the podium with card in hand. This will easily be one of the most important picks of the last decade or so for our franchise, and one of the most highly debated as well. The tension will be palpable and I can't wait.

 

It’s interesting....but keeping Sam AND drafting either Wilson or Fields at two are NOT mutually exclusive options. They can do both and let the rookie sit for a year, give Sam a chance to up his value, and then move him later if he does well (I get he’d be a free agent assuming we don’t exercise his option, but we could always franchise tag him and trade him then....a bit messy maybe, but possible). Sam’s salary is low enough that this is a viable option.

personally, I don’t think there is ONE right way to do this....I think ideally I’d prefer to have a decent team, especially at least OL, first, so that a rookie QB doesn’t get killed behind a shit line like so many before (including Sam), but it doesn’t always work that way. You need a little bit of luck and timing too. Had we earned the top pick, no one would be saying pass on Lawrence to develop the team. We’d be drafting Lawrence. Period.

The issue is that both Fields and Wilson have major question marks. Some love them, some don’t. But you can’t argue they are not slam dunks in the mold of Peyton or Elway or Luck or now Lawrence. Fields comes from a program that never produces QBs and he has all day to throw to wide open receivers. Won’t happen in the NFL. Wilson comes from a D2 program and has one year against shit competition, and he’s a bit on the small side with prior injury history on his throwing shoulder. So to me, they BOTH have pretty serious question marks. Not saying they won’t become great NFL QBs, but it’s not a slam dunk like some of those other guys.

that’s why we are all so torn. Some want to choose one and draft him (and that has merit, not least of all from a salary cap point), and some want to see what Sam can do with a decent team and coaching staff around him (lord knows Mac did him NO favors...first pick after taking Sam was yet another fucking DT in Shepard).

to me, there isn’t a clear cut right or wrong way to go...I’d be willing to give JD and Saleh the benefit of the doubt either way.

In my mind, it’d probably come down to what we could possibly get for Darnold in trade. If we could get a second rounder or better I’d probably move him and reset the clock, but if the best offer is like a 4th or a 5th rounder, I’d probably keep him and let him hold the fort for the rookie.

 

I just posted this in the Darnold, Fields, Wilson...thread, but it seems like it fits here:

The question that begs answering for those advocating waiting until next year to draft a QB is this:

Who exactly do you think will be better than any of the current class? Drop the dodge of "Well every year someone pops up that's called the 'Next Great QB' so I'm sure there will be one available". Oh yeah? Who? Who are the "contenders" that you think can inherit that title? Name names. Enough with the vague assertions that can't be debated or supported. There's tape and analyses available for the 2022 class, so you can make your case. Let's hear it.

And here's another equally important question:

How do you propose the Jets enable themselves to be in a position to draft such a stud? Because sure as shit they won't be picking #2 on merit. Sure, it's possible that a great QB could fall to them in the 10-20 range where they'll likely be drafting, but the odds of that happening are slim. Does it really make sense to pass on taking a highly rated QB this year that requires no draft capital or other assets used to trade up, in favor of the slim possibility of being able to draft a potential FQB - who at this point remain unidentified by anyone - next year?

With all of this said, it won't shock me if Douglas chooses to trade down and not even take a QB this year. If so, I will be disappointed and will likely just detach from this circus until such time - if ever - they finally figure out how to win.

As to the answer of the OP's question:

A!

 

Other than Sam Howell, I don't know anyone in the 2022 class who matches this year's top prospects. But, in 2023, DJ Uiagalelei could be that great prospect who follows in the footsteps of the Clemson QB widely expected to go number 1 this year.

 

BYU is D1 just FYI.

I don't think Fields and Wilson having question marks is a major issue. Almost every prospect has question marks. The guys without any question marks come around once every 10 years or so, can't just wait around having no QB in the meantime.

 

The thing about the tag and trade, is the other team would have all the leverage. If JD has drafted a rookie, the plan is clearly for the rookie to start at some point in year one or year two. They won't want to keep Sam have have to pay him whatever the franchise tag is ($25+ million?). Even if Sam had a good year, I think JD would have a hard time getting a fair deal, and there's always the chance, albeit possibly slim, that the Jets would get no reasonable offers for Sam and then they'd be stuck and have a mess.

IMO, if the Jets have any hopes of getting anything for Sam, then they either have to trade him now, or showcase him in preseason and trade him before the season starts or at latest before the trade deadline. Not trading him now presents a problem. They aren't going to keep 4 QBs. They're not going to cut bait with Morgan. I don't believe they will pass on taking Wilson. If they determine that Wilson or whatever QB they draft needs to sit for a year, then they can't trade Sam unless they think Morgan is ready to start. If they trade Sam now, they could sign Beathard or Mullens and unless he got injured or was just awful, could start the entire season. I think if they keep him, that he'll just wind up walking at the end of the season and the Jets will get nothing in return. Getting even a 4th round pick is better than nothing.

 

So, as of right now, in the next two years there are only two QBs that might be as good as those coming out this year. And the Jets need to get one of those two picks somehow.

Is that a better bet than taking Wilson (or whomever you prefer) at #2 now?

 

If the CS and FO are sold on Wilson, Fields, or even Lance, they'd be better off taking their guy this year rather than risking not getting either of those two who might go number 1 when they come out. Teams who pick that high might not want to trade down because they see them as their ticket to turning things around. And a lot can happen between now and then. Maybe Howell suffers a career ending injury or DJ regresses to being a mid round project.

 

I think I was clear on this in my (bills) timeline. Yes Beane was hired, but as I said he was not involved in the FA before the draft or the draft. Also, Sean more or less picked Tre white and secured the pair of pro bowl safeties.

 

Yup.
I do think you damn well better bring some O-Line and WR help for a new QB pronto though. What the jets did to Darnold is inexusable.
Also, Josh was never supposed to start year one, behind our shitty line and WRs back then, but he was forced into action early.