I believe on an extra point after we scored a TD there was a penalty that we took on the kickoff and proceeded to kick it into the end zone from midfield. I'm not sure of the rule but the announcer indicated we could take a half the distance and go for 2 from the 1. Normally I wouldn't take the point off the board in a situation where the 2 point conversion is converted less than 50% of the time. Against the Pats and with our O where points are at a premium I might well go for every point in that spot with the yard advantage. There is no doubt most coaches would get killed for taking the point off the board because once you have the point the odds of not getting the point becomes a huge factor in the decision. It's only before the kick is made that it becomes almost a no brainer. The stats today don't support going for a 2 every time. You can predict that getting 2 points on average happens just under 50% and 1 point is just under 100 so overall it wouldn't matter. That however doesn't change the statistical situation on each 1 point conversion being converted at about twice the rate as a 2 point conversion. Most coaches aren't going to chase the extra point every time when the odds for converting drop by close to 50%.
exactly. statistically its a ~50/50 endeavor if they went for it. All you are doing by accepting that penalty is giving them 2 chances at it. When you are playing a passing offense, downs, not yardage are most important.
It is. That doesn't mean they are always converted it just means the D is in such an unfavorable situation that a stop is pure luck. Missing an extra point is pure luck but it happens.
It's not 2 equal chances. If it were teams wouldn't take penalties on the O ever. Do you take a holding penalty on a 2nd and 5? Why you give them another chance to get a first down.
Missing an extra point is not exactly pure luck but even they are converted ~93% of the time. New England does not convert 4th downs at anything close to 93%. Furthermore, the defense has just a little more say in the 4th down conversion than an extra point anyway
To answer your question, you consider the opponent on the other side of the field. If its Tom Brady you try to get it to 4th down as much as possible. If its Josh McCown, you take your chances that he won't pick up 10 yards
People can debate this one until they are blue in the face. Matt Barkely and the Bills you can accept it. Tom Brady. Enough said. Debatable best ever. Lets give him two more times to get 12 yards. Our defense gives up 500 yards a game. We'll stop him. There are many but this one just shows you how clueless he is as a coach. Fire him. I find it interesting that Mayfield's stats have improved since Hue and Haley have been fired. Lets do the same. Fire Bowles and Bates. There's five games left. What do they have to lose? 5 more games? 5 unwatchable games? It is already there. Change can't hurt. Heck lets beat the Browns to Condolezza rice. Lets hire her for the last 5. I'd enjoy it more than Bowles.
With all due respect NE roll up 498 total yards, including 215 on the ground. The D got gashed on - 10 plays of at least 20 yards. They didn’t have a takeaway for a franchise-record fifth consecutive game. This was the fifth time this season the Jets have allowed 400 or more yards on defense. So we have a D minded coach that can not coach his players up.... we have people stating they aren't executing after the 5th straight loss yet this stooge of a HC states his reasoning for not taking the penalty as - “Third-and-12 were good odds for us,’’ Bowles said. “We’ve been pretty good on third-and-12.’’ Except they aren’t. The Jets entered the game ranked 28th in the NFL on defending plays of third-and-12 and longer. Care to rethink your comment?
There is no excuse why this defense is this bad. As I have said before, with the amount of resources that have been poured into that side of the ball, there is no reason these last two defensive "efforts" should have happened. It is an indictment on this coaching staff. Say what you want about a lack of a pass rusher, the fact that this defense couldn't stop the Pats on the ground was totally uncalled for. I would say disheartening or unbelievable, but both adjectives have lost meaning with this team and coaching staff.
That's telling, mostly because it shows that Bowles is full of crap, but it's one-fourth of what I'd like to know. What is their defensive ranking on 4th and 2? What is the Pats offense's rankings on 3rd and 12 and 4th and 2, respectively? Knowing, of course, that the 4th down rankings would be based on relatively little data. By the way, where do you get stats like that?
What are the odds that you make enough money to buy an ambassador gig and the NY Jets from dady selling Q-Tips. I'm guessing it's about the same as dying from jamming a Q-tip into your brain while watching the Jets lose another game to the Pats. Did you know that last year 3rd and 12 for all of 2017 was converted 18% of the time in the NFL. There were a total of 217 3rd and 12 in 512 NFL games last year. Did you know 3rd and 13 were actually made 20% of the time in 2017 on 164 attempts, 7% of the time on 3rd and 19 on 42 total plays. What difference does our rank make? What's the first down conversion rate vs. 4th and 2. What's the percentage of field goals at 52 yards vs 42 yards? If they miss the field goal what's the point probability with a starting position on the 42 vs. the 25 for our O? If they make the first down on 4th and 2 what's the probability that they get 3 more downs to get a TD. What's the probability that we score points when they have the ball? He's right. The Jets D has been decent this year. And more than decent excellent on 3rd down. New England was 5 for 12 on third down yesterday. 1 for 1 on 4th down. The Jets D has the most 3 and outs in the league this year. The biggest problem with the Jets D is the Jets O. The Jets average starting position for a drive is the 17 our opponents average starting drive is the 29. Our D is holding teams to an average drive of 5.4 plays 4th in the league. 29.1 yards 8th in the league. 1.89 points 12th in the league. The problem is even though we are among the best teams on 3rd downs and forcing 3 and out's our O is among the worst teams in almost every category. Our D is on the field constantly because our O has bad starting field position, doesn't move the ball, doesn't score points and turns the ball over at a very high rate. NE had 9 more minutes of TOP yesterday. We put 13 points on the board. We turned the ball over they didn't. Bowles and Mac should be fired because the players aren't that good and Bowles hasn't proven he can develop Sam or a decent O around him. The call yesterday would have been wrong either way because there is nothing that we could do to control the situation because of the mismatch of both personal and coaching. When a coach can't control anything they need to move on for their health and the teams health. This entire thread is piling on for no reason. We have the body, the weapon and the DNA. He's kid having bad breath isn't going to sway the jury at this point.
He probably can't read. Boy I wish I could have sat in on his job interview. So Todd what is your defensive philosophy? Um just try to keep the offense from scoring over 70. Offensively what will you try and accomplished? Keeping my finger out of my nose for 4 quarters. I'm impressed we will recommend Woody hires you ASAP.
we literally had the opposite post a few weeks back when he declined a penalty. damned if you do, damned if you don't.
It could have been 3rd down and 22 and the Pats would have still converted. Yes, the Jets are that bad and the Pats are that good. The Jets are officially in tank mode. Get ready for another high first rounder who does not pan out.
"Can't read?" ..too funny Other than Bill Parcells and maybe Mangini I don't think the Jets have had ownership or coaching that collectively came to 100 IQ lol BTW ..first of all HC got the Team in the situation where it's 4th and 2 (for Tom Brady the HOFamer) thru inept Offense and Defensive TB was being out-coached the entire second half Secondly you pull all the stops ...live or die on fourth down..not give NE 2 chances...that is just the way I would have played it..cover all the receivers and stuff the run
Yes, and it underscores what I've been saying about Bowles: at this point he's second-guessing himself. In a sense that might not be a bad thing since his "first guesses" usually are wrong, but when you fall into this kind of self-doubt it's like you're being played by a 3 card monte dealer - whatever you guess is sure to be wrong, you're no longer relying on your experience and judgment, you're just floundering. And this is one of the many reasons he needs to be fired NOW. The previous game you referenced was a completely different situation. First, he declined the penalty allowing Chicago to have 3rd and 10 instead of 2nd and twenty. The odds of gaining 20 yards, even on 2nd down are much harder than making 10 yards on 3rd down. Also, the QB was different - giving Tom Brady two chances to make a 1st down, when he'd been completing 20 yard passes all game was almost a gimme. The bottom line is that Bowles has no feel for managing a game, and hasn't since he arrived. Four years into it and he's still making the same kinds of mistakes.
i'm not saying either call was right or wrong. there is no right or wrong. you play the odds but people don't get that NFL calls are mostly a grey area and not black and white. back him up 10 yards, make him throw deep on 3rd down instead of allowing them to pull of a 4th and 2. they won't go for it on 4th and 12. it really wasn't 2 shots it was 1 shot either way we just failed at it. had they not pulled it off it would be a non issue.
You're right, there is no "cut and dried" answer - which is where good coaching comes into play. A good coach possesses an innate understanding of his players, the other team's players, and how the game has been unfolding (there's much more to this, but these are the basics). But in this situation you had Tom Brady, who had been completing 20 yard pass plays all game long, and who has a long history of doing such, and you're giving him two chances to convert. I don't know what the odds are for other QBs, but in my experience watching Brady, he's almost even BETTER when you back him up. He and the Pats seem to reach and find an extra gear somehow, but I've seen it countless times where he converts plays like that to the point where it's almost automatic. I would much prefer to put him in the 4th and 2 and force them to decide on their ONE play what to do. Sure, they might've made that also, but they might well have tried a running play and the Jets stop them, or at least don't let them get into the EZ. We'll never know how it might've worked out, but I saw that play coming as soon as they accepted the penalty.
