That line may not move much, even though it seems inexplicably low. Don't forget the "Manning factor" on the SB line, because Vegas knows that the more casual fan that only bets the SB is likely to just bet the biggest name in the game. That could be enough to keep the line reasonable.
He was lights out for 8 weeks and was a trainwreck after the Rams game; later that season it was found out that he was playing with a torn calf and started the season hurt(local DEN media was reporting this early). It's not an excuse. With his decline, he can't be judged on the same scale. Injuries come with age and decline; they work together; it happened with Farve at the end of his run in MIN, Marino, and it'll likely happen to Brady very very soon.
I mean you can go back and add another 4-6 completions to Peyton's game against the Steelers and say he played at a pro bowl level given all the drops his receivers had, and they probably win that game by two scores. If we're going to play the hypothetical game.
I'm leaning towards Broncos. Two years ago the number one rated defense destroyed the number one scoring offense in the Super Bowl, and I believe I heard in Super Bowls the number one defense is 9-2 all time. Anecdotally, though, this weekend just felt like the championship games for SB 25 -- Giants eek out a 2 point victory of the defending Super Bowl champs while the Bills absolutely destroyed the Raiders 51-3. But come the Super Bowl that firepower couldn't overcome the Giants defense.
This game will not be close or in any doubt come the fourth quarter. I think Ron Rivera's experience as a player on another 17-1 team entering the Superbowl in dominating fashion will serve him well in getting his team prepared, the moment will definitely not be too big for them. Carolina's offensive line (which to me is the big difference maker in this game) and dynamic rushing attack will be able to do just enough, to open it up for the big play they feast on. The only teams to rush for as many consecutive 100 yard games were the Franco Harris Steelers and the OJ Simpson Bills. Their offense is the number 1 scoring offense because their defense and special teams consistently puts them in a good position, and I see no reason why this will not continue. If Denver isn't careful playing man to man can lead to Cam running wild. In another thread I mentioned that Carolina has scored less than 20 only once all season, and less than 27 only 3 times. They have scored over 30 ten times and in 8 of the last 9 games. Even if Carolina has an off day and only scores 24, they still win easily. I honestly fear that Peyton's career is going to end being carted off the field.
gotta go with the panthers here. cam's mobility and size will negate the denver pass rush. carolina d is too good at creating turnovers.
I would kill to watch smug ass Cam Newton's presser after a SB loss, but it's just a better offense and a better defense coming from Carolina. They'll probably win by 10 or more.
Carolina's D is better than that Bills D, and more capable of creating turnovers (and points). I think what is getting lost here is that the Panthers are a great defensive team, that also has a great offense. They aren't the 2011 Packers or 2013 Broncos. In this game, if you look at both sides of the ball 3 of the 4 units are SB caliber. The Panthers have 2 of them. The Broncos do not even have a playoff-caliber offense, which is going to get exposed in this game. Carolina has already faced their toughest opponents. I think the Seahawks would also win by double digits over the Broncos. The Cards would probably be a toss-up because Carson is such a mess in the playoffs, even though during the regular season they were also better than Denver. Quite simply, if the Carolina that showed up against Seattle and Arizona, also shows up in the SB, Denver has very little chance to win this game, and the likely result is a decisive Carolina victory.
I think some teams have gotten a backdoor cover against Carolina, but those teams (Packers, Giants, Colts) had QBs capable of throwing the ball down the field and lighting up the scoreboard. If Denver gets down the way other Carolina opponents have, they are doomed because they have such a terrible passing game, and 5.5 is very little to lay in that scenario.
That would be unfortunate...really I can't remember a lot of critical SB injuries that made a difference, there was Charles Woodson but the Packers won.
82% of the public bet New England to win over Denver. I think the same thing is going to happen here... If the line doesn't move much don't be shocked if Denver wins. Vegas knows all.
I think Denver will pull it out in a close one. 14-10, defensive struggle type game. fwiw I am so god damn happy to see a super bowl without the garbage fluky Giants or Cheatriots involved. Honestly I hope it's 30 years or more before either team makes it again.
Cam is great for the game of football. I don't understand why people hate on him so much. Not calling you out specifically, but it just intrigues me.
Patriots defense imo is underrated, not overrated. they are not great, but are solid and get very little credit for playing well these past couple years. Broncos hung 17 fairly easily against them in the first half, and looked pretty good. then Kubiak went into ultra conservative mode. being that conservative was a huge gamble which almost lost them the game, and was the reason the offense went nowhere in the second half. i don't think the offensive issues have been nearly as bad this postseason as people are making them out to be. short of major turnovers, or Denver getting into an early hole, i think this game will remain close. if the spread goes upwards of +7 for Denver, i'm jumping on the bet.
Denver makes a fight of it Cam stumbles Down goes Newton Jughead delivers the knockout blow Jughead = G.O.A.T. Whoda thunk i'd be rooting so hard for Jug ten years ago? Haha (so refreshing that the Scumbag outfit and Seattle aren't playing)
Patriots defense - they are solid, but they aren't any different than the past years prior to Talib / Revis going there. They've always been a bend not break defense. Hightower and Collins improved this year, but I think the overall defense last year was much better. Patriots defense was exposed a few times this year. I don't think they are underrated at all. Going back to the AFCCG, Owen Daniels had quite the day against the Patriot linebackers. If the Broncos turn the football over, they aren't winning this game. Considering Manning led the league in interceptions for most of the season, hard to think they won't turn the ball over. Luke Kuechly? Josh Norman? Oooh boy
Keep in mind that Cam Newton can scramble and move around the pocket like crazy. I'm sure Denver's defense will bring it like they did against the Patriots, but unlike Tom Brady (who's a statue in the pocket), Cam will be able to move around.
i see Daniels day against NE as a positive showing for Denver's offense and Manning. one TD was a wide open read, and the other a perfect pass to Daniels on a LB mismatch. and this is against a very well coached, well prepared NE defense with a sound gameplan and talented LB's. capitalizing on reads is how Denver can play to their strengths. i agree that turnovers could change everything, and Denver can't afford them. something to consider...Manning hasn't thrown a pick since coming back from injury. He's physically struggling, but a lot healthier than he was earlier in the year, and it shows.
