If Jets plan to shop Harrison, they will have to sign Ellis. Or they will have to shift either of the linemen inside. Neither looks attractive enough to shop Harrison.
The point is that if the Jets tender Harrison with a 2nd round tender and he gets a big offer from somebody (including Rex since the Bills have a 2nd rounder to give) they probably won't match the deal. Then if Ellis gets an offer he can just sign away with no recourse by the Jets. Right now the Jets have one NT they can guarantee will be on the team next year or in his place a 1st round pick. That's the way to go. They have a huge amount of cap space. How can tying up $3.113M of it in their starting NT not be a good move even if they don't wind up extending Snacks down the road? They might game this out as "we want to get something good for Snacks before he leaves and the best way to do that is to 2nd round tender him and take the pick this year." The problem with that approach is that they won't have a good NT this year if they do that.
Yes, he is a top 7 run stuffer. He's also a one dimensional 2 down rotation NT who generates almost no pass pressure. Replace him at the same cost? No one, but 8M or so per year should be enough to land Terrance Knighton who generates both pass rush and is stout against the run and is a 3 down full player. Jets have the cap space and having that type of player between Richardson and Big Mo only makes them better. Jets have the cap space.
And you need to tell me why other teams will choose to go after Harrison when Knighton is waiting as a free agent. Remember - Denver is overhauling their defense to 3-4 now, which is apparent with the arrival of Wade Phillips. Knighton was not retained regardless - think about what that has to mean.
I don't need to tell you why another team would do so. Why? because if the Jets were to sign Knighton and no team bit on Harrison then the Jets have a very good #2 NT on the roster for around 2.3M and if another team does bite they get another 2nd round pick. It's a win/win situation either way. As to why Knighton isn't sticking around in Denver, that's easy....Knighton's value is less than the all the other key free agents the Bronco's have this off season, both Thomas's (to give someone for Peyton to throw to), Orlando Franklin (to keep Peyton on his feet), and others and try to squeeze that in on a current 19M free cap space. Knighton is cap casualty in Denver.
Rex will go after Snacks HARD. Need to lock him up. Same thing with Douzable. Kenrick would be nice too.
Perhaps, and yes there's a very good chance that he will go there. But never throw up the white flag without throwing your hat in the ring.
Snacks isn't a total stay at home NT who can't generate pressure. He was just used that way most of the time in Rex's defense. I can remember a couple of plays where he absolutely exploded up the middle and caused big problems for the QB. Once against Brees in 2013 and once against Brady last year. In both cases Rex was throwing the kitchen sink at the QB and in both cases Snacks managed to beat his man and create havoc in the middle. I think he's under-rated as a NT at this point and if the Jets could get him locked up to a reasonable contract he'd be a big plus over the next 3 years. It's not unreasonable for him to be looking for $25M over a 4 year deal with some real guarantees in there. If that's what's keeping the Jets from signing him we'd be better off just to pull the trigger.
We need Snacks, but not because Rex will go after him hard. I don't get the obsession with what Rex will do - he was a great defensive coach but mediocre head coach. We can't get caught up worrying about who Rex will go after and overpay out of fear. Can't worry about cutting Harvin because Bellicheck will take him. Let's just keep our good talent and cut guys who don't fit. Period. I'll gladly play Rex, Sanjay Lal and whoever else he took with him twice a year.
Really the Jets just need to find a way to keep two of Wilkerson, Richardson and Snacks for the next 4 seasons or so. It would be nice if they could afford all 3 but given that they are all effectively interior linemen it is not really possible to overload deals for all of them. They also need to find an edge rusher who can force the offense to over-protect on the left side. Douzable is good depth but not a lot more than that. He's also late prime at this point. Ellis has never been the player the Jets thought he would be when they drafted him. He's also good depth. If either of those guys are going to get a real offer as a starter elsewhere the Jets will just have to let them go. Neither of them is likely to be a plus starter for the Jets over the long-term whereas all 3 of the primary DL will be.
I think, it's more related to how Rex used him, as opposed to where his strength lies. Typically, Rex likes his NT squarely on 0 tech, so he can keep things at bay. Remember - he even got decent production out of Sione Pouha as the NT. While he didn't do much as a pass rusher, he was the cog in the run defense. [Not a very good one, but got the job done, let's say.] More aggressive approach with NT and 3-4 DL would have been to align them at the gap, so they can either shoot the gap or take on double teams. [Wade Phillips does this wherever he goes.] The caveat is, such approach is very susceptible to runs. Unless you have LBs fast enough to close in on the cut back runner, it's not a sound approach. [Phillips' defensive core always features fast LBs, backed by strong DL, for a reason.] If Jets did this - maybe they would have seen more pass rush out of the Snacks as well. As a whole, though, that would have compromised the run defense a lot more; the negative weighs more than the positive. Jets LBs under Ryan were never fast unit. So unless Jets get fast quick at LBs overnight, losing Snacks will be critical - they will have to invest some more cap space for the DL. Unless someone decides to throw 1st rounder away, Jets are better off with Snacks commanding the middle of the tacklebox. [Even with 1st rounder offer, they need to think hard about how they will design the defense. I don't know what's with Rex, but he always loved LBs slow as snails. That certainly will change once he's out of the door. Now, how are they going to make the transition as smooth as they can? I don't think jettisoning Snacks is in the best interest for this. They will have to grab a few pieces at LB before considering such.]
If you see him that way then that's the way you'd handle it of course. I don't see that in Snacks. Like you said he got the pressure when Rex was throwing the kitchen sink and he was left man on man, that doesn't happen to a NT very often. Don't get me wrong, Snacks is a great 2 down NT, but to date he hasn't shown any real ability to create push or collapse pockets. It's not about getting to the QB necessarily for a NT, it's about getting push in the middle so the QB can't step up in to the pocket to avoid the side rush.
If the NT can get pressure when he's left one on one he's doing his job just fine. That means 2 guys are spending time at least chipping him in the center of the field opening up lanes for other people.
Again, it's not necessarily about pressure from an NT,it's about creating push to collapse the pocket even when double teamed. That's something he's not been proficient at.
The Jets may tender Snacks but he wont be here longterm. My guess is they move Coples inside with Wilkerson and Richardson. That plays to his strengths and he plays the run and can pass rush effectively from that position. Plus you now have 3 players that can penetrate into the backfield. From what I saw of the Cards defense I think that Bowles may prefer that over a 2 down run stuffer and space eater. For those who have eatched the Cards more may be able confirm whether this is a correct readout.
