I mean. You can turn your exact argument around on yourself and use it. What evidence do you have that Sam will turn around and be a good player in this league? The odds of a quarterback leaving their original franchise with as little 'success,' as he has had and going on to have a successful career are absolutely miniscule. In fact, quarterbacks who have had some success and went on to be franchise quarterbacks is even a pretty small list. The odds are against him going from a season with a 65 quarterback rating with what projects to be around 10 touchdowns/15 interceptions or so, to a legitimate starter somewhere else with success. How many examples do you have? Ryan Tannehill was a decent passer in Miami and never had a season like Sam's current season after his rookie year. Alex Smith? Drew Brees (who had a much better year prior to being traded)? Marcus Mariota was 20-22 as a starter with an 88 passer rating, 58 touchdowns and 34 interceptions. And he might never get another opportunity. Jameis Winston was 18-27 as a starter with an 87.2 passer rating and 69 touchdowns/44 interceptions. He's a backup and teams preferred to roll with Tyrod Taylor, Gardner Minshew, Cam Newton, and Drew Lock over him. They both played better than Darnold has too and they're not the guy. Can he be resurrected? Yeah maybe. Anything's possible. But you guys are also playing the middle pretty well by saying he sucks right now but he might be good one day. That's not some sort of bold statement or even very reasonable given what we see on in front of us. But I'll concede. Yeah that's a possibility he goes on and has a good career - anything is possible. It's not very likely given the deficiencies in his game that he hasn't fixed. I label a player based on what I see. You're still hoping he has potential.
Couldn't have said it better myself. I'd also add that people are fooling themselves with the "he's shown flashes" BS. He really hasn't. At least not more than any other QB. If you're in the NFL you're going to occasionally make good plays just by chance. Being able to play well consistently is what separates good from bad players.
Yeah that's the problem. Flashes are for rookies. He's in his third year. Losing on a bad team happens. But he's making rookie 5th round draft pick mistakes. He's absolutely lost against zone coverages and won't throw over the middle of the field vs. man blitzes. He also does not check the ball down under pressure. EJ Manuel showed "flashes" too. What Sam doesn't do is hit his back foot and throw. It's a problem for pressure but it's also a problem versus zone coverages because you let the defenders setup their zones and shield their areas by their mere presence. That forces a player to continually make perfect throws to beat the zone and you do not have the luxury of hitting a receiver as he breaks off his route. Then you end up with the need for the QB (and receivers) to make really good plays in scramble drills. Once the zone is setup, every defender has his eyes on the quarterback. And for one that does not move safeties or corners with his eyes because he's locked on, it's the reason he's throwing so many bad balls and picks into double and triple coverage this year. It's similar to basketball. What's the best way to beat a 2-3 zone? Pick up the pace and don't let them set it up.
Crazy thing is I've been watching all of our playoff games in 2009 and 2010. Playoff Mark Sanchez was leagues above what we've seen from Darnold so far and he still wasn't good enough to get past the Colts or Steelers in the AFCCG
I would say it differently. I would say he has shown that he doesn't have elite level QB ability that allows him to overcome the terrible situation he is in on a weekly basis. Not many QB's have that ability.
How about if you don't decide what you think I see? In fact I'm basing my assessment on what I see, and have seen. That we come to different conclusions is called perspective, or point of view. Your perspective seems based on the decision you've made that Darnold is a failure because he was never good to begin with. As a result, you apparently ignore the flashes of potential he's shown, despite the circumstances he's had to play in. My perspective is based on not having made up my mind one way or the other, but being open to the possibility that Darnold can still achieve his potential - although recently I have come to the conclusion that he won't likely do that as a NY Jet. But you try to support your opinion by employing the timeworn use of "the odds". "Odds" can be useful in trying to predict an outcome, but by its nature predictions are completely unknowable. And while "odds" can help to identify historical patterns, they are by no means certain. If I toss a coin and get 5 heads in a row, the "odds" of the next toss being heads - or tails - is still the same: 50/50. So to say, as you do, that all these other QBs failed after leaving their original team "predicts" the same fate for Darnold, it actually doesn't affect the probability of any other QB's success or failure. And yes, coins, being inanimate and unable to change their behavior are far less complex than human beings, that actually argues even more for my assertion, as its almost impossible to make any predictions based on human behavior and performance, further complicated by the circumstances each is in. To put it another way: what were the "odds" that a QB from an Air Raid offense would come into the NFL and dominate so greatly that he wins an MVP and a SB within 2 years? Especially when 9 other "experts" failed to predict that? So again, trying to bolster your argument by citing the "odds" really doesn't do it. The bottom line here is that neither of us knows what will happen with Darnold. With that uncertainty in mind, I choose to remain hopeful and open to the possibility that he'll rebound, if not here, than with some other team. If it makes you feel better about how the world works to predict him as a failure, then that's your opinion, but don't try to pretend that it's based on anything other than your opinion.
Flipping a coin is inherently a 50/50 proposition. Bad QB's almost always continue to be bad. The comparison makes no sense. Logical thinking would say there is an extremely small chance Sam will turn into a top 10-15 QB here or elsewhere.
First, you're making the assumption that Darnold is a bad QB, which hasn't been proven. Second, you're linking the success/failure of other QBs to him when there is no link, other than Gase being the HC of both he and Tannehill, which actually supports the theory that it's not the QB but the coach who sucks.
The assumption Darnold is a bad QB...? Bro, he's been bottom 5 in the league in basically every meaningful stat in every year. That is far from an assumption. The assumption would be assuming he is good/can be good elsewhere when there's no evidence in support of that. All of the evidence we DO have says he's terrible. As many have pointed out, Tannehill was significantly better than Sam even with Gase as a head coach. Tannehill went from league average QB to good QB after leaving Gase. Even if you want to use him as a comp for what Darnold may do, the best you could guess is Darnold will go from being league worst to below average under a different coach.
It's just tough to properly evaluate. I thought Week 3 at the Colts showed that with his first pick-6 not being his fault, he turned around and led the Jets down to tie it 7-7. Then made a terrible pass in the endzone that changed momentum and then a forced pick-6 in the 2nd half. It showed the good and bad and all the stuff Sam has to deal with. Week 4 he was on a roll then body slammed by a Bronco and his season was thrown out of whack. Then he returned Sunday to an (0-6) team that was tanking and playing a good (yet overrated) team in the Buffalo Bills. The O-line couldn't protect him after going up 10-0. I can't fully explain Sam's struggles though either. He looked much better in 2018 and 2019. Why the drop in 2020? Well, the franchise is a nightmare right now. So the question is can Sam be salvaged in a better situation? I think the answer is yes and I think that could still be in New York in 2021 with all the changes that are coming. If he can't win a game though, he is out and rightfully so.
I really don't think it's tough to evaluate. I watch every game and I'm very mindful of accounting for plays where nobody was open, the o line let a rusher through etc. Even with that in mind it's undeniable that there are numerous bad plays every game that are solely Sam's fault. He holds the ball too long, doesn't go through progressions, misses open receivers and throws lots of interceptions. It's really not difficult to separate the things that are his fault from the things that aren't. And there are a lot of things that are his fault. The stats also back this up. He's consistently a bottom 5 QB in the NFL by any meaningful metric. Even with a better roster/coach it's crazy to think he'd make a massive leap and even be a top 15 QB. And even if he does make a massive leap we'd just have a league average QB, which is usually not good enough to compete for a title unless you also have a great running game and defense.
Well the stats don’t lie and they are not good by any stretch however, I firmly believe that this coaching staff and the roster are SO bad, that I don’t think we can really assess how good or bad Darnold can be...it’s not an excuse it’s just reality...our OL can’t block worth a damn, our receivers can’t get open, and they drop half the balls that hit their hands. Hard to get an objective assessment under those conditions. that’s not to say that I would pass on TL if we get the first pick....you don’t pass on generational talent, and while TL could bust just like many others before him have busted, I think we can pretty much all agree that he’s too highly rated to pass on.
Again, you're basing your assessment that he's a bad QB on things that aren't reliable predictors of future success/failure. Moreover, you're completely ignoring any mitigating factors - like poor surrounding talent and coaching - that would significantly impact the numbers your using. Tannehill was also a veteran of three years before he came under Gase's "genius", so the wasn't as vulnerable to the negative impact. Here's an interesting article I just read about predicting QB success: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/ And while I actually agree with the assumptions and resulting formulas he came up with, still, it underscores that even with the best models, predicting what a QB will do is almost impossible. And one other thing: he makes a point of stating the caveat that his prediction model can't factor in one of the most important elements: what system/environment a QB winds up in, and that's exactly the main issue with assessing Darnold. In any case it's an interesting read FWIW.
What have you seen from Darnold that makes you believe he can be a good starter in this league? I don't really know how you don't know yet. Daniel Jones sucks and his rookie year was far better than either of Darnold's two seasons. And his offensive line and team sucks. He moves the ball when he needs to though and puts together drives. Darnold's three good games his rookie year? He started 13 games last year and threw a pick in 8 of them. Without using a scapegoat, what has he exhibited in his third year that makes you believe he'll one day transform into a good starter?
Whether it's the chicken (quarterback himself), or the egg (situation they're brought into), is irrelevant. It could be the situation. But the point is that they rarely leave that situation and are resurrected as a long term quality NFL starter. That's the point. Either he sucks himself or the situation he's in has made him suck. But the chances of him finding success is very low. Especially when you consider all of the mistakes he makes and how turnover prone he is, along with bad footwork and inability to figure out coverages. It's not that much different than Sanchez honestly.
This article is talking about draft picks. We have 2.5 seasons of evidence in the actual NFL that Sam is bad. What are you saying aren't reliable predictors of future success? Being bad your first few years is absolutely a reliable indicator that you'll probably be bad in the future as well. I'm not ignoring mitigating factors at all. As I said before I watch the games very closely and account for things that are not Sam's fault. At least I have evidence on my side. You're just stacking hypotheticals upon hypotheticals and hoping that Sam turns it around when there's very little reason to think he actually will.
I think Sam is the type of player that has to be with the right team and the right coaching staff. It's unfortunate that CJ in his infinite wisdom decided on Gase to be the man to groom him. Sam's not seeing the field and not reading defenses very well. He's very poor at looking for the open receiver. If you looked at Sam the 1st half of the Miami game and then shut the game off at half time you would jump out the window to find out the Jets had only 4 yards total in the 2nd half. If the Jets were guaranteed the #1 pick right now, I think Sam would be gone. The question is, and there is still that possibility, what do they do if they fail getting the top pick? Gase has to go, and the replacement for him may decide Sam's future. They may still draft a QB and we have another reset.
