What makes you say 9 times out of ten? According to something I read in the Globe, he's caught a total of 11 passes of 20 yards or more since he joined the Pats. Face it, more than 5 yards off the line of scrimmage, he sucks. If I were you, I'd be kind of pissed my team with all its cap space doesn't find some legitimate athletes to put around the best quarterback in the league.
Right cause 1st and 10 on the wrong side of midfield when you are trailing is essentially "locking up" the win. Play some friggin Defense Patriots... pussys
It's hard not to when I was banned for 10 days for "repeated attacks" when all I did was respond to a guy who literally in every other post repeatedly attacks posters. So, I have to make up for lost time. And, that means continuing to press the very important issue for the 2012 New York Jets - getting an NFL caliber qb.
How many seasons would you have thought Peyton Manning had left in the tank after 2009? As people age their bodies become more brittle. Brady is as likely to go out with a Pats career-ending injury next season as he is to have a great season. That's mainly because just about any serious injury will likely mark his last play for the Pats. Joe Montana got hurt and boom gone to KC. Peyton Manning got hurt and most likely gone somewhere else. Teams don't wait for a 35 year old QB to heal, especially when they are built around that QB. The risk is too great that he will fail and that they've then got nothing in the tank at all.
First of all your stat is incorrect. He caught more than 11 passes of 20+ yds THIS year alone. But that's OK, I'll let you show your obvious football IQ, while demeaning a WR who has caught over 120 catches and gained over 4000 yds over the past 3 seasons. Yep the Pats surely should get rid of Welker. BTW- you aren't the only one who thinks the Pats have to improve their outside WR situation. But remember they Pats don't run a Standard NFL offense. While even some Pats fans "demand" that "field stretching" WR, I would point out that Brady threw for the 2nd highest pass yds EVER, with a "flawed" WR situation. So while I would love to have that legitimate downfield threat, its a LUXURY, not an necessity. Personally I don't think the Pats have to expend resources on a high end WR draftee or FA. A WR at the bottom of the 2nd or 3rd round would be sufficient, or picking up a mid range FA WR like Brandon Lloyd.
I understand injuries can strike at any moment to anyone at any age, but IMO, we have to prepare for Brady being in the league for at least 3 more years... Thinking about his career ending this year because of injury is just too hopeful to me. Believe me, the only thing I want is for the Pats is to be without Brady behind center, the only thing I rooted for in the SB was an injury to Brady (yes its bad, but what more can a Jets fan root for in such a game).
If you're talking about passes that went more than 20 yards in the air, which I can only assume is what the OP is referring to than here are your numbers. Welker had 4 receptions on passes that were more than 20 yards in the air this year. He had 1 in 2010, 3 in 2009, 1 in 2008, and 2 in 2007. http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/5941/wes-welker
Dude. I understand you are hardwired to wet your pants over short scrappy white guys who play the game the right way, but in what universe is Welker a legitimate downfield threat? Come on. He clearly can't catch balls over his back shoulder. And he never could. Any reasonably athletic wideout has to come up with that ball. Welker prospers in the ridiculously short game with great YAC because he's so quick. He can't catch a cold downfield when he's wide open. Blame Brady for not laying right in there for him? Sure. Try it sometime, its not easy. Branch, Ocho and welker is a weak ass bunch of WRs. all there is to it. On this very board there is a ridiculous thread about how the Jets should sign the stubby little scrapper, like Sanchez with his accuracy problems would ever find him. Comical. I've no doubt you truly admire the way your coach is so smart he hoards draft picks while putting Julian Edelman, James Ihedigbo and some stiff who was bagging groceries two months ago in the defensive backfield. What a genius. Get some guys who can play. The window isn't open for very long. Regardless of what the Jets do.
The thing to realize about Brady, and about any star QB in his mid-30's, is that the status quo is unlikely to hold from season to season. We all look at Brett Favre and we think "oh, of course Brady could play until late 30's or even 40 without losing much." However history suggests that this is not a likely occurrence. What history tells us is that QB's get out to about 34 and then they drop dramatically in terms of performance, often due to injuries that are harder to recover from at that age and more likely to occur because the body is more brittle. The last 5 QB's to be inducted into the hall of fame were Troy Aikman (retired at 34), Warren Moon (last full season played at 39, although it was his first full season since 36), Dan Marino (last full season played at 37), Joe Montana (last full season played at 34, never started for 49ers again) and Dan Fouts (last full season played at 31 and last effective season played at 34.) So you have 34, 39, 37, 34 and 31 as the last full seasons played by the last 5 hall of fame QB's. That's what Brady is pushing into at this point. He's already on borrowed time. Now I think it's very possible that he plays out to 38 or 39 or so however the odds that he does it without injury interruptions and with the Pats are very low. Whoops gotta edit this for early morning blindness. John Elway was inducted after Montana and played until 39, Jim Kelly was inducted after Montana and played his last full season at 33, playing until 36. Steve Young was inducted after Montana and played his last full season at 32 but started 15 games at 36 and 37. Elway pushes the definition a bit but the other guys are all in the range to suggest that Brady is playing a couple seasons more or so if he gets lucky.
Yeah good find. Ever since Moss left, Brady hasn't thrown down the field that much compared to other top tier QB's, Peyton, Brees, Rodgers. I don't have any stats, but my eyes tell me Brady has lost some accuracy on deep throws. If you even go back to our two playoff runs.
I think this is a good, logical post, but it doesn't take into account the rule changes that are so protective of the QB now. The life expectancy of NFL QB's should increase, shouldn't it?
If you think that it's one hard hit that does them then yes. However I think it's usually an accumulation of small things often not contact related that cause the most trouble. Peyton Manning gets hit 30 times a year and his neck eventually went under that load. The thing that really did him in my opinion is the 679 passes he threw at the age of 34 in 2010. But obviously the problem had been festering before that. The Colts were just organizationally stupid enough at that point to not put a strong RB next to him and avoid the overload and that triggered the injury. You're old enough to know that the body just isn't the same after 30. Things that you would shrug off become lingering problems and even the smallest tweak can turn into a major issue. Vinny probably doesn't do his achilles taking a step at 28 but it happened at 36. That mechanic is at work all over the body by 35 or so. The thing that will dramatically improve QB's chances moving forward is the concussion mitigation in the rules that is being layered in step by step. That won't really help the current QB's all that much but it will greatly help the guys just getting started. Even then, how many QB's have been retired due to concussion? Aikman? Not sure who else.
Thanks for pointing out the distinction. I see your point. It makes one wonder is it Welker's fault, Brady's fault, or the nature of the offense itself. However the real point is that regardless of how far the ball was down field. When Welker can get 2 hands on a ball, he'll catch it 95% of the time. THIS one he didn't. It was a key play, but just one. One the play before, a badly missed block created a loss, when a good gain could have been gotten if the block was made. The Giants put the ball on the ground 3 times. The odds of recovering just one of those balls is over 90%, but it didn't happened. If the Pats recover just one of those balls they win the game. If they don't have 12 men on the field on the fumble they recovered, they win the game. If Brady steps 2 more feet to his left he would have been outside the tackle box and there wouldn't have been a safety. The point is there were a lot of individual plays that with 20-20 hindsight we can pick out as game changing, not just the Welker play. The bottom line of this game was that the Giamts simply made more of those types of plays than the Pats did and thus deserved to win the game
I think it's a combo of accumulating injury and also the psychological effect some of those injuries manifest. I remember Brady pre-Pollard, and remember wondering if he was a robot. He would stand completely fearless in the pocket and get the ball off cleanly, getting drilled by unblocked rushers, and bouncing right up, continuing drives as if he had never been touched. Now, Brady takes some of those hits fearlessly, but many times alternates between moping on the ground and crying for flags. That robotic reaction to taking crushing hits has been mostly gone since the first game of the 2008 season. Thanks to Bernard Pollard. And after taking a number of knockdowns in a game, as both NY teams have shown, those balls don't come out of his hand anywhere nearly as clean as they once did.
It's a lot of different things, but yeah the mental aspect is there also. Herm Edwards and Eric Mangini both fielded some pretty aggressive defenses at times and none of them made Brady do the "who, what, where? thing that Rex's defenses have done at least twice. Herm had John Abraham and Shaun Ellis coming at Brady with decent rushers in the middle to push the pocket also and he was always Mr Cool and Collected against that defense. The moment I knew the Jets were going to beat the Pats in 2010 was the moment that Brady got totally flustered in the pocket and threw an easy pick for Harris. I had never seen Brady look that bad on a play against the Jets before. He just totally lost it for a second and threw the ball before his receiver had is head turned around and right to a spot where a LB dropping in coverage should be. My main point is that I don't know what will get Brady but I'm pretty sure the odds are much better that something gets him in the next year or two than that this continues out to 39 or 40.
