Fitz has been on some terrible teams and played bad. Now he is on a good team and played good. It's not that complicated. He is an average QB who can't carry a team, but he can play well when on a good team. Geno has looked terrible from Day 1. Now, is it likely that he would play better in 2016 than he did in 2013 and 2014? Yeah, I think so. Definitely not guaranteed though.
Maybe that was the opinion of many , but it wasnt mine. I dont think Fitz succeeding last year was more unlikely at all. I didnt expect 30 TD's and 4000 yards but I expected average play. (Which I guess is what we got if you listen to some on this board describe what he did for us) Fitz was put back into the only system he ever played well in..and had great weapons around him. I never thought Geno could succeed with that last season before the punch and I think its even less likely now. If there was a 5 percent chance of what Fitz did last year happening , then there is a 2 percent chance of Geno succeeding this year. I can find other examples of average veterans going to different teams and doing well. Cant find many, if any, of failed ones getting another chance with their original team a year later and putting it all together.
but the thing is.... Geno Smith isn't asking for $12 million either. If we're going to acknowledge that Ryan Fitzpatrick is an average QB, of which I agree with you and pretty much everyone who watches football, then Geno Smith doesn't even need to be good. All he would need to do is play at the level of an average QB and its an easy decision: roll with him and don't pay Fitzpatrick. Hell he's making a million and a half this season. He could get away with being less than average and it makes more sense to roll with him than give $10.5 million more for average.... I think Geno Smith can play at the level of average or less than average with this Jets team. at least.
This is exactly where the final outcome will land. I think there will also be some "pay for performance" incentives which could get him to a $24-25 million total.
There may be some guys here who believe Smith has the capability to "light it up" but the vast majority of Jets fans are a lot less optimistic. If the Jets leadership believed in that capability this thread would have died after a hundred posts.
I can see the money aspect of it. But what advantage do we as fans get from "average at best" play from Geno? To me if he played at his best we go 8-8. Most likely though we end anywhere from 5-7 wins and waste maybe the last season of Marshall, Revis, Harris, Mangold, Wilk in a Jets uniform. Is the release of Breno or restructuring of other contracts to create cap room really not worth having Fitz over Geno? Its not our money and its not something we as fans should care about past the free agency period. If the $$ is there you sign the guy.
Yeah, like 34 1/2 years ago Mr. and Mrs. Fitzpatrick did the old horizontal bop. Why write all these long posts that contain such obvious conclusion(s)?
Why does the Genoside refuse to acknowledge the one thing that Fitzpatrick brings to the team that Smith has never demonstrated or evoked - confidence? Smith has never looked comfortable on the field at gametime and the rest of the offense has never looked confident with him in there; the opposite is true for Fitzpatrick - he brings out the best in those around him. Hell, receivers even catch all those interceptable balls when he's in the game.
but the money isn't there. Restructuring of contracts has long term consequences. Just for example. One of the players who might have to restructure is Eric Decker. He has a very team friendly deal to close out his current deal around $8 mill annually, very low dead money. You ask him to restructure so they can fit Fitzpatrick in and he's making $3 million this year, $12m and $14m the next two. Getting out if need be in the future will be more difficult, pairing him up with other players more difficult, Wilkerson is absolutely gone. etc. Kicking the can down the road has burned this team so many times. We just lost our LT who hasnt missed a play in 10 years because they restructured to pay a different average QB some money. So yes, I do care even though its not "our money." Paying average players big money also has long term consequences. Especially when you are only bidding against yourself. its just dumb.
Downside of having great WR's. Fans get tricked into believing any QB can play well with them. I guess they havent watched much tape of Matt Moore, Jay Cutler and Chad Henne. Kyle Orton was probably the most consistent QB he had before coming here. Doubt an older WR coming off a career year , or atleast close to one , wants to go from a solid and smart vet to a young headcase.
It's an interesting point when you bring money into it. I don't think you are wrong, but Fitz brings more to the table than Geno is pretty much every way including leadership. Fans and players rally around him where as none did for Geno. The team is clearly in better hands with Fitz, but to your point, how much worse are they with Geno at $10.5 million less? It is a good question.
I dont see how a 1 year deal with no guarantees past this season will have a longterm affect. If thats what it turns out to be. This isnt a Tannenbaum opening up cap space by restructuring 5 guys to go after Asomugha situation. Guys will be cut during training camp either way. A cheaper Breno replacement will most likely be available and other guys will come off the books too eventually. In the grand scheme of things I just dont think 10 mil in cap space in that much thats going to hamstring the team..and mostly veteran team at that. Like I said before lots of guys that are here this year are not going to be here in 2017 so to me it doesnt make sense to be all in at every position but the most important one. Mac is a numbers guy , if they knew there was zero shot at creating space without putting the teams future cap in jeopardy , Im sure they would've cut off talks with Fitz long ago. Or atleast made a final , take it or leave it , offer.
Last year wasn't really a fluke. Fitz was decent with the Texans the year before and wasn't bad with Buffalo either. If Gailey had a decent DC there, Fitz could have taken them to the playoffs.
Fitz has never played a playoff game and last year was his only winning season, which I believe to be largely a product of his supporting cast. Fitz is the better option for this season because of his character and leadership traits, but his ceiling beyond this year is not as high as any of the other three QBs on our roster IMO. To me that doesn't warrant paying him 10-12 times more than those other guys and then have to make sacrifices elsewhere. There's simply no upside.
so if you believe that Mac is a "numbers guy" and you trust that he wouldn't put the team's future cap in jeopardy to make room for Fitzpatrick, does this mean you will give him the benefit of the doubt if they don't come to an agreement with Fitzpatrick and roll with Geno Smith? I mean he would be essentially making that very decision as its obviously a financial decision and nothing personal. The only reason I ask is because just a couple posts ago you said fans would tear him up if its no Fitzpatrick and Smith struggles. So you are saying you won't be one of those guys tearing him up? I'm just wondering what your answer is
I think it's a fair point that Fitz really isn't anything better than average at best, and as bad as Geno is, it still isn't that great of a drop off. In Geno's favor, his arm talent could really open up the offense in ways Fitz has never been able to, with any team. That all sounds okay, until you look at our Offensive Line. Outside of C and LG, we're hanging on by a thread. It's one thing to say Fitz's numbers are only average on his best day-- it's a whole different reality when an injury or two on our O-Line leaves all our outstanding skill position players watching Geno run backwards, or trying to pass the ball to himself behind his back, or whatever other kind of disaster he can impose on himself and his team. And you all know that's what will happen. Hell, that's what will happen even without injuries to the O-line. In short, the difference between Geno and Fitz isn't a whole lot once the ball leaves their hands. The difference before that point is pretty huge. Still------I think $12m is way too much. I thought $8m was too much. Somebody get Fitz to play here for $6.5m. Do it.
I give him the confidence to get a smart deal done. And I just cant see any way that Fitz isnt our Week 1 starter to be honest. At this point there are no other options for Fitz so he will have to play with what the team thinks is a good deal for both sides. I dont think they want to screw him , but I also think if they had the cap space currently , they would've given him a 3 year 32 million dollar deal that was more player friendly after the 1st year. And I didnt mean that the fanbase would tear Mac up specifically. I think they would tear up everyone. Geno, Bowles, Mac, Woody..even Fitz. Because thats what Jet fans do. And many that are clamoring or atleast accepting of Geno right now , would be silent on the topic.
great points. agree completely on everything. Fitzpatrick does get the ball out quickly. I'd say that right there is the biggest thing that sets him apart from Geno Smith and it takes some pressure off an already shaky o-line
