Punts Forced / Kickoff Return Attempts: A Statistical Flyby

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Darth Vader, Apr 25, 2010.

  1. Darth Vader

    Darth Vader Member

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    Agree on the FC's. I think they played it conservative on purpose last year. It was like just dont risk it. We were battling turnovers all year.

    This year, you take the chevy and park it at slot receiver and grab the keys to the porsche and see where it goes.

    We were actually middle of the road in terms of touchbacks with 7 and also punts downed inside the twenty. New England led the league in TBs avoided with only 2.

    It isn't obvious to me why the figure is different for us.

    all i know is we actually returned many more punts in proportion to KR relative to the league.

    It is significant because of all the Fair Catches's - you are right. So imagine that gap widening if fair catches aren't called.

    You are talking about something that is very rare in the NFL in terms of opportunity.
    There seriously isn't an obvious
     
  2. Vorrecht

    Vorrecht Active Member

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    More 3-and-outs for the opposition means more possessions for us but we didn't exactly sustain a lot of drives last season so in a way doesn't that allow the opposition more returns themselves?
     
  3. Vorrecht

    Vorrecht Active Member

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    Cotch and Wilson (or Holmes)?

    Our punter sucks.
     
  4. Darth Vader

    Darth Vader Member

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    cotch = chevy
    wilson = porsche
    leonard = yugo
     
  5. Vorrecht

    Vorrecht Active Member

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    ^ haha, nice :wink:
     
  6. mystikol

    mystikol New Member

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    Good analysis. Your point appears valid, and it is certainly an uncommonly discuussed point amongst fans. Good proof, as well.

    Some thoughts:
    The above is at best not completely true. We are forcing more punts than not at this point (as it relates to total drives). We can expect marginal improvements to our defense to lead to smaller and smaller increases in the amount of punts forced. We are now closer to the bound of 100% [of opposing possession ending in] punts (and 0% Kick returns) than we are to the other side, so this makes sense.

    Our offense is a ball control style of offense. Thus, while we may not allow many first downs and also force a high percentage of 3-and-outs, the opposing offense will typically have fewer possession per game due to our office draining the clock. I would guess that we'll pass more this year, but then again I'd also expect that we'll be a better offense that can sustain more drives. This will probably ultimately lessen our PR opportunities and mitigate the importance of an improved PR game.

    A punt return for a TD does have a negative in that it constitutes an extremely short possession, thus leaving our defense on the field longer. Of course, I'll trade it for the 7 pints every time, but I just wanted to mention that.

    On balance, I agree with your main premise. Kyle Wilson will be a valuable addition is this area, and he will indeed help the Jets more than he would other teams because he'll be going out there for punt returns more times each game.

    FWIW, I think Leonhard called more fair catches because: A) he just doesn't have great PR instincts, and B) the coaching staff may have asked him to be careful and save most of the abuse his body can take for the defensive side of the ball, since he was by far our best safety and a key component of our defense, not to mention our play-caller.
     
  7. stinkyB

    stinkyB 2009 Best Avatar Award Winner

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    NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.



    good post. thanks......
    maybe we need a hottub time machine to bring back 2002 Santanna Moss :breakdance:
     
  8. WhiteShoeWillis

    WhiteShoeWillis Well-Known Member

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  9. CatoTheElder

    CatoTheElder 2009 Comeback Poster of the Year

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    Damn this looks extensive. Bookmarked.
     
  10. hwismer

    hwismer Active Member

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    DV:

    Thank you very much for the fascinating analysis.
     
  11. MadBacker Prime

    MadBacker Prime THE Dead Rabbit

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    This isn't exactly rocket science.


    Good defense or bad you still want a explosive return guy.

    At the same time we also don't want a fumbler, both Cotch and Leonhard have great hands.
     
  12. Doogstein

    Doogstein Member

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    Someone went to college.... Nice read helped me look at our PR/KR teams in a bit of a different light.
     

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