Pulitzer quality stuff from Brian Costello - Zach Wilson is exposing every Jets problem

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by HackettSuxTNG, Nov 7, 2023.

  1. Jets81

    Jets81 Well-Known Member

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    Not according to the NFL.

    Not super interested in interpretations of the rules for who gets credit for the fumble.
     
  2. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/...etermining-success-in-sports/?sh=6f63a8bff802

    https://www.nfl.com/news/numbers-game-what-statistics-matter-most-to-nfl-coaches-09000d5d80358f1f

    https://takethissports.com/stats-do... statistics – are inherently vague and blurry.

    https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1303898-how-statistics-dont-tell-the-whole-story-in-the-nfl

    there are 4 articles explaining what i've been trying to explain. maybe they can do better then me. here is also a somewhat reddit discussion about it

    https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/commen..._stats_dont_tell_the_real_story_of/?rdt=58287
     
  3. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    not my eye test. i'm asking for others to share their eye tests and details and not just be lazy and quote stats. I also posted 4 articles jsut now explaining what i'm trying to explain becuase maybe they can do it better.

    I never once said "my eye test is what matters" what I say is don't quote stats, discuss what you've seen in detail and we can talk about it that way. stats only record what happened, not how it happened. how it happened is what determines how a player is doing. the end result is affected by too many things
     
  4. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    I'll take one more stab at this @GasedAndConfused -

    The variables balance out because they represent a tiny portion of the overall sample size, which is why larger sample sizes are best for analyzing data. They involve enough data points to where no small number of variables has a relevant impact on the whole.

    Regarding the kicking indoors vs. in bad weather example -

    What % of a kicker's total kicks over seasons or multiple seasons are actually done in weather so bad that it impacts the kick? It's tiny. Most of the NFL season is played during a time where the weather is fine. There's also the fact that teams don't play every game at home, so even the guys who play for teams with domes kick plenty of kicks outdoors, and even guys who play outdoors kick plenty of kicks in domes.

    The TLDR is that these "variables" that you think soil the entire sample are actually largely irrelevant. Again, that is precisely why we want to use large sample sizes - because they negate these variables that you claim poison the entire dataset because large sample sizes mean variables represent a small enough % of the total to be essentially meaningless.
     
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  5. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    a strip sack counts as both a sack and a FF for the defensive player
     
  6. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    what dictates a small size and a "large enough size" you can't quantify it so you are using vague terms. is 10 games enough? 100? 1000? etc. at what point do things balance out exactly then? and how do you come up with that number?

    I'd suggest reading the links I posted, maybe they can explain better what i've been trying to explain and obviously failing at
     
  7. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    literally it's the only point i'm trying to make
     
  8. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    I don't have an exact number, but I know that an entire season is absolutely large enough.

    I think we're all in agreement that stats don't tell the whole story and that they can be misleading without context (mostly due to small sample sizes which don't involve enough play to negate the outlier events). We're just pushing back on the notion that the existence of any variables means a sample size cannot be valid and used to draw conclusions.
     
  9. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    but how can you know that? close is only good in horseshoes and hand grenades. if you are trying to pitch stats as an exact number that evens out, there has to be a quantifiable number and a reasoning behind it at which point it evens out to be suitable for use. otherwise it's just your opinion on when they are good enough to count. and everyone can pitch a different opinion and we are back at square one

    the issue is when watson gets a TD on a shit pass off a helmet and zach gets an incomplete for uzo dropping an easy TD i can't take pure stats seriously. and Qbs only throw 20-40TDs a year thats a pretty small sample size.
     
  10. SOJAZ

    SOJAZ Well-Known Member

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    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA, he has 8 fumbles this year and 5 TDs. Let that sink in friend.
     
  11. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

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    100%

    The comment that 17 games are not enough or the comparison to baseball are totally silly and nonsensical

    Stats in a vacuum or over a short window do not always tell the full story, but multiple games and multiple seasons do…to argue otherwise is just a bad position to take
     
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  12. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    Our 45 million investment is on his 3rd year of NFL football and going nowhere

    Meanwhile the pick ahead of him has the Jags on a 5 game winning streak

    The Jets couldn’t even the tanking right ..it’s quite nightmare being a fan of this team
     
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  13. GREG

    GREG Well-Known Member

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    CJ Stroud in his rookie year is showing signs of being an elite level franchise QB. Sure, as a rookie he has had some bad moments but overall, he is proving to be the real deal.
     
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  14. SOJAZ

    SOJAZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is a stat for you. 30 games w12-l18. From Costello NYP: The quarterback’s main job is to get his team into the end zone, to throw touchdowns. In more than half of the games he has played, Wilson has failed to throw one touchdown. n the NFL this season, there have been 35 games in which a quarterback threw for three touchdown passes. Some of those are by the names you would expect like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and and Joe Burrow. But it’s also been done by Sam Howell (twice), Jordan Love (twice), Will Levis and Bryce Young. Rookie C.J. Stroud threw for five touchdown passes Sunday against the
    Buccaneers.

    how about that context...
     
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  15. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    thats not context because it doesn't explain anything that happened in the game or how it happens. it's just a result. do you not know what context means?
     
  16. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    Of course !!! That’s cause their GM can spot talent

    I have lost all faith in Douglas ..maybe he starts a business with Macagnan after this mess is over

    Rogers would have saved his ass but now ??? Lol
     
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  17. IIMeanDeanII

    IIMeanDeanII Well-Known Member

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    Zach Wilson sucks.


    Anyone trying to pretend otherwise Is delusional.

    I’m surprised there are 7 pages worth of debating on the issue.

    He sucks.

    The offense sucks.

    Why waste anymore energy on It?
     
  18. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    huff has 12.5 sacks over 3.5 years (45 games played) or .27 sacks per game. even with the extra game now that averages to 4.59 sacks per season. which makes him a below average pass rusher for his career.
    zach is in year 3. huff after 3 years had 7.5 sacks in 37 games or .20 sacks per game or 3.4 per season average on a 17 game season.
    sacks are the main stat for an edge rusher in the NFL
    therefore that stat proves that huff is a bad pass rusher. which means we should just let him walk right? and with pass rushers he has it easier then a QB as he isn't relying on an o-line or WRs. all he has to do is beat his guy and get to the QB
     
  19. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    some people think he sucks but is still better then 2022 zach and we have no better options. and that he's 1 issue with the offense but not fully at fault as the offense has multiple issues and injuries
    some people think he should be out of the NFL and someone on their couch like kaepernick could come in and do better and that he is the sole reason the offense sucks

    thats pretty much been the debate
     

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