We can agree to disagree on chemistry, but some of the most winning teams only functioned well together when winning. winning breeds chemistry. Waste a lot of cap space? really? I researched each and every player in their local and the national market and used estimates from there as to what the players are likely to receive in compensation. You can disagree with the positions, but overpayment? Perhaps, but that's the current rumored value for the players according to current research. Take it for what you will. You knock being slavish to BPA but then are slavish about overpaying to need. The better CB's int he market are going to be in heavy demand and require overpayment. The same goes with the OLB pass rush, but at least with OLB's they play all facets of the game and provide more versatility. If I have the choice of overpaying for a CB or slightly overpaying for a LB I'm going to to choose the LB's. They provide a line of defense against the run, they provide a line of defense in pass protection and they provide pass rush which forces the QB to get rid of the ball before they want to get rid of it. RE BPA, I didn't go BPA in the first round, I did go need there with the QB, and it's a QB pick as long as either Winston or Mariotta is on the board at #6 (barring a knock your socks off deal of some sort). I could have drafted a guard in the draft, and like I said earlier I broke away from BPA again slightly in the 2nd when I choose a receiver at #37. By the time I got down to the Falcon's pick the top guards were all off the board and the way the board fell in the 4th there was too much value to say no to. Being slavish to need in the draft is the best way to wind up with mediocre and over drafted talent on your picks in rounds 2-7.
First off, you seem a little hostile. It's not personal. I just disagree with your thinking/reasoning/priorities. We don't have to agree. Agree to disagree re chemistry it is. Yes, I think you wasted a lot of money in your FA scenario. You addressed two positions of current need, OLB and FS, and ignored the other 4 positions of strong need. You created a need at two other positions by trading players (Snacks and Giacomini). For that matter, you also created a worse situation at OLB by getting rid of Pace, Babin and Coples. Listen, NO ONE wants the OLB positions upgraded more than I do, but imo spending $95 million on FA OLBs is wasteful. Whereas I agree with you that it's better to overpay OLBs than it is CBs, imo neither Worilds nor McPhee is worth what you have them signing for. Worilds, I could almost see him getting that much, but not McPhee. If that truly is what he'll get, then imo owners and GMs have lost their freaking minds. He's only a part-time player and has never had 10 sacks in a season. I could live with either Worilds or McPhee in your scenario, but not both. IMO bit would be better still to sign Sam Acho or Brooks Reed, keep Pace and draft an OLB or two and use the difference between Acho or Reed and Worilds or McPhee would get and sign 1-2 other FAs to address needs. IMO that's the MUCH smarter and more financially reasonable way to address the OLB position and team needs overall. You then have a LOT of money left over to address other positions. I will post my plan soon and you can rip it to shreds, but I address a lot of team needs and not just two in FA, and I don't create any new needs or holes. I am NOT slavish to need, but needs must be addressed, or your team won't get better. What makes the difference is how one addresses those needs. As far as the draft, one can reach for players at positions of need in the draft, one can hope one falls to them that they like, or they can trade up or down. In FA, one can sign the big name, top dollar players, or one can look for younger, second tier players with potential who will increase competition, and who may be already better than anyone on your team at the position of need. Needs don't have to be addressed with big contract FAs or by reaching for players in the draft. IMO both those ways of addressing needs are losing propositions, either because you disrupt your team salary structure, eat up too much cap space, or you wind up with inferior talent from reaching. You can sign a second tier FA and try to draft a player at the position. I'd check into Kareem Jackson but if he wanted insane money, I'd wish him the best and move on. I think somewhere in the neighborhood of $7-8 million for Jackson should be reasonable. Cro should get no more than $5 million per year. There is a long list of FA CBs available at http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000459436/article/2015-nfl-unrestricted-free-agents-by-position Are all of those CBs worthy of signing? No, but there are two ways the Jets could go. They could opt to go with an older stop-gap like Cro or Tramon Williams and hope that Milliner and McDougle stay healthy and prove they can play. Since Bowles' defense seems to depend upon great CB play, I doubt that's the approach they'll take. Depending upon how Mac views Kareem Jackson, they could try to sign him away from Houston. They could go with younger players like Chris Culliver, Perish Cox, or Davon House who have some experience, but not a lot and who would probably be fairly cheap. They could pursue Byron Maxwell. Then there's Mevis, but I hope they'll stay away from him. I think they'll definitely look to sign a FA CB, even if they have to overpay. In that sense, to solidify the secondary, and enable them to use more draft picks on offense, I don't think they'll look to the draft to fix the CB position, unless it's to find a replacement for Wilson. My reasoning for that is that while Bowles adapts his D scheme to the players, he likes to blitz a lot and needs strong CB play. That will solidify the D along with adding youth and speed at the OLB position. If Winston is there at #6, he WILL be the BPA. The only that raises a question about that is his character, but if you look strictly at his physical talents/skill and his production/play and his position, he would be the BPA. I don't think the Jets will look to draft a guard. They've drafted at least 4 over the last 2-3 years (Winters, Aboushi, Dozier and Campbell), and don't have a quality starter yet. They need to FIX the OG spots to protect whoever the QB is, and to make the offense more effective. With there being a number of quality OGs available (Iupati, Franklin, Boling & Carpenter), there is no reason why the Jets shouldn't be able to sign one of them, and they'd be foolish not to.
Chemistry isn't everything, but there's no way it's overrated. You can't just tear up a team and insert a ton of rookies and expect it to work out. Especially in this scenario, you have a rookie QB with some pretty legitimate character concerns throwing to a pair of rookie receivers, one of whom is also carries significant character concerns. Then there's a rookie RB who will presumably be playing a lot. Plus Amaro is still very much developing. That's a lot of inexperience and there's no way that wouldn't be a legitimate concern for the team put forth in this scenario. Football is not just 11 guys on a field on islands. It's perhaps the ultimate team sport and in a league full of ultra-talented athletes from the best team to the worst, the synergy of a team couldn't be more important. This scenario could work in Madden, but with all those questions on offense, I'd predict this team would be an absolute disaster
Yes, to a degree I ignored some positions of great need and, IMHO improved positions where I got the most player for the best value. But I wasn't going to rush in and mock sign players of marginal value or players past their prime or would be past their prime in the next season or two. As far as the team not getting better, here is where we have a very significant philosophical difference. I see the Jets in 2015 as a team that's not going to turn in to an offensive powerhouse on one free agent season and 1 draft. Not going to happen. So my philosophy here is to build a defensive front 7 to dominate the game and keep games low scoring and within reach of an offense that regardless of what action is taken this season is more likely to struggle to put up points on a consistent basis. This is especially true if it's Marcus that falls to the Jets and even more true if neither QB falls to the Jets. So you build a team that can smash the other team in the mouth over the short term, 2015 and maybe 2016 and then start rolling bringing in more and more players in the following seasons. There was a reason so many of the contracts were 2 or 3 year contracts with only the first year being fully guaranteed on the free agent contracts, it's also why in the short term some of the contracts are a little high (despite the fact they're in line with what much web information insinuates that they'll get.) By having shorter contracts on younger players it leaves flexibility and options down the road in 2016 and 2017. If the players play well you keep them at a reasonable rate, if you need the money for something else in 2016 or 2017 you cut them and have good cap space, minus any prorated bonuses of course. It's also important to remember that I left a little over 17 million in cap space on the roster to sign other value players and of course to cover draft slot values. I'm not interested in older stopgaps. I'm interested in younger players who have upside and may play a part in the future of the franchise. I'm looking for a team that's built to create a dynasty to replace the aging Patriots. As for the guards on the roster. I think both Aboushi and Dozier will step up their games this year, especially Aboushi. If then it can be addressed down the road. By going with marginal players and spreading to both sides of the ball evenly you wind up with a team that likely is at best a .500 team IMHO, a great defense may still make it only a .500 team but it's odds are better of it being over .500 next year than the other option, IMHO. Now if you know me and have read many of my posts I've harped on the need to revamp the Oline, and it's still the #1 overall concern for me. But I'm not going to sign a guard just because I need a guard and overpay for a guard who's flawed. But that's my opinion. I had wanted to grab one of the top guards in the draft but the draft didn't break that way after I picked Dorsett with the #5 pick. all of the top guards were gone by the time I drafted next. Unlike a lot of people who mock drafts I go through the whole draft and assign picks to each team as it progresses. Now one area I do 'cheat' a little on is the other teams draft BPA based on needs as long as there is a BPA that isn't a reach. the way the draft fell just didn't work out and I wasn't going to reach for a pick. But we'll see how things actually pan out and who gets what contract and who goes where in the draft over the next couple months. It's a mock, and it's just my interpretation of an aggressive off season . I look forward to your mock, I won't eviscerate it however. well unless you do something silly like take a punter in round 3
Never said there wouldn't be growing pains. Frankly the only strength the Jets have right now is basically their Center, their Left tackle, Richardson, Davis and Big Mo. I'd rather watch a young team struggle and learn for a season than watch a patchwork team struggle for a season or two or three or four.
Why do you insist on making everything either great or either awful, and bringing in other aspects or things that I never mentioned as if I did? You act as if there are only the two extremes on almost every point, and I think that is at the root of why I disagree with so many of your choices. Just because a FA isn't a high dollar, big name FA, doesn't mean that he isn't a very good player and won't help make the team better overall. Following is a comment of yours that is a prime example of your making everything an extreme, and it's absurd, obtuse, and makes it difficult to have an intelligent discussion. To begin with, ALL players have flaws. There is no such thing as a "perfect" player. Orlando Franklin, Clint Boling, James Carpenter & Mike Iupati are all very good OGs. They aren't severely flawed players, and all are light years better than Aboushi or Winters at their best, and probably better than Dozier at his best. No one said anything about "overpaying" for one of them. That's just your going to an extreme or hyperbole to try to strengthen your position, or trying to twist things to undermine my comments, but actually it undermines your opinions and positions because it clearly demonstrates that you aren't being reasonable/rational. I never said that I advocated bringing in players past their prime, yet you bring it up as if I did. I will say that sometimes the best option for a team is to sign a stop gap player or two to get them through a season. That's an effort to try to maximize the team's potential and not just accept that you're going to have a hole or weakness at a position. I agree that the team won't be an offensive powerhouse in 2015, but imo that still doesn't mean you practically ignore it in FA and spend most of what you spend in FA on the defense. The offense has been grossly neglected for too long. Did you learn nothing from the Rex/Tanny/Idzik era? They ignored the offense and used most of their draft picks and FA $ on D until this past season. The Jets cannot continue that insanity. IMO spending all those FA $ on the D and ignoring the offense is nothing short of insanity. The team cannot keep saying "next year" for the offense, and continue funneling their major focus into the D. If Mac approached the offseason the way you advocate, I think most fans would start a fire McCagnan movement, and I would seriously have to think about joining them. Hoping that Aboushi, Dozier and/or Winters will cut it at OG is akin to hoping last year that Milliner, McDougle, Patterson, Walls & Wilson would cut it at CB. You don't go into a season hoping that young players will have developed or will develop. You don't entrust your QB to guesswork at OG. The Jets have done that for too long and been constantly bitten in the ass by it. This is where the GM has to consider both the Long term view and the short term. Just by definitely upgrading/solidifying one of the two OG spots, I think the offense will have the opportunity to be significantly better because the QB will have more time to find an open receiver, they'll be better able to sustain drives, stay on the field, and should be able to score more points. I think Aboushi or Dozier should be able to adequately handle the other OG spot. Add in a veteran QB like Matt Moore, Shaun Hill, Ryan Fitzpatrick or maybe Josh McCown, and the offense could be even better. I have no problem with the 2-3 year contracts. In my plan, I will have the Jets signing a number of players to those as well. We actually agree on a number of points. You just see everything too much cut and dried as extremes of good/bad without middle ground, and that's just not realistic.[/QUOTE]
Again we disagree. LOL IMO Left Tackle (Brick) is no longer a strength. He is very close to being a liability. Their whole DL is a strength (Mo, Richardson, Snacks, Ellis & Douzable) and not just Mo and Richardson. Davis is only a quasi-strength imo. He has the speed, but doesn't make the plays or excel in coverage as he could.
We can agree to disagree, but I stand by Davis overall as an ILB strength. He's not elite but PFF does rank him the 11th best ILB in the NFL in 2014. He doesn't rank as well in pass coverage but that might have as much to do with scheme not fitting his talents. He is more than ready to fill the shoes of Harris in the middle and to bring in a more coverage minded ILB to compliment him. Which is why I went with Foster as a stop gap ILB who is still young enough to have upside. Foster isn't a plus or a minus as an ILB, He doesn't do well against the run in terms of stopping at the line but he's not a liability in pass coverage but he's not great either, but frankly there wasn't a better option at ILB this year in FA and he is a solid zone blitzer. I agree that Brick is on the downslide, but he's still a plus as of 2014 and again if you've read my posts in other threads you'll know I've said the Oline needs a total revamp. If neither QB had been available in round 1 I was going to draft the best OT available. at that juncture in time. Regarding all the comments you've made about the Jets not drafting another guard because they've drafted 4 or 5 over the past few seasons. Different regime in place now with their own drafting philosophy. The scouting department has been redone, the Front office (aside from the cap people) has been redone, the coaching staff has been completely overhauled. There are no ties to the past, no one on the team in the FO or coaching staff has anything vested in any of the players on the roster or any reputation hanging on past drafts. What they will do will be completely different from what I've done....and they'll be completely different from whatever you put up as well. We have zero idea how this FO and coaching staff are going to evaluate players currently on the roster.
[/QUOTE] When you overpay for a guard that's flawed you are tied in to that guard and his flaws for the longer term. Iupati isn't a guard to build a line around if you want to protect a young QB, Iupati is a great run blocker but he has a reputation for being a minus pass blocker. You talk about bringing in a guard to protect a young QB, which I agree with, but you want to bring in guards whose weakness is pass protection? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of protecting the young QB in the pocket? I never said there was such a thing as a perfect player, but there are players that fit the scheme you have in mind and players who don't fit the scheme you have in mind. The Jets in their current state are a trainwreck. The team hasn't been over .500 in 4 seasons, they were a very lucky 8-8 in 2013, a year they really deserved to be 6-10. They were a fortunate 6-10 in 2012 in a year they really deserved 5-11 or 4-12. Last year they were a 4-12 team which about where they should have been. We're not talking about a team that's had 1 down year after several very good years, we're talking about a team that's 26-38 over the past 4 seasons and probably should have been 22-42 over that span, of course that's conjecture on my behalf...it's not Raiders bad but the Jets came from a better 4 year span before this span than the Raiders did. The Jets have been a team in decline since 2010. The Jets weren't even a power house in 2010, they were good but they were veteran good and designed for that very short window. The Jets are now well past that window and several short drafts due to trading picks and a couple of poor drafts have left the teams cupboard bare. Jets fans don't like to hear the term rebuilding, but that's what this team is now if it want's to be more than a .500 team down the road. It's a rebuilding team and IMHO it's going to take 2-3 seasons to turn it around.
When you overpay for a guard that's flawed you are tied in to that guard and his flaws for the longer term. Iupati isn't a guard to build a line around if you want to protect a young QB, Iupati is a great run blocker but he has a reputation for being a minus pass blocker. You talk about bringing in a guard to protect a young QB, which I agree with, but you want to bring in guards whose weakness is pass protection? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of protecting the young QB in the pocket? [/QUOTE] But can't the same be said for every other position? In this scenario, the Jets pay 10M/year for Parnell McPhee and similarly for Worilds. Good or perhaps better players, but they certainly have flaws too and I'd argue that much money is overpaying too. I agree that you don't want to force too much money for a player who you obviously have concerns about and I, too, would be wary of giving Iupati an Andy Levtire-like deal given his pass blocking woes. NCJetsfan threw out some other good names at OG (though I'm iffy on James Carpenter) who would come a lot cheaper and also offer more in the passing game. You say that you like the young OGs on the team and IMO it's very reasonable to project Aboushi as a starter on one side and maybe the new regime even sees Dozier as a potential starter. Even if that's the case though, that's a lot of youth and inexperience at OG (especially with the new 'franchise' QB behind center) and in this situation you at least need a veteran to compete and start effectively if Dozier isn't quite ready. Doesn't have to be one of the higher end free agents; could be a guy for 1-3M/yr. That's not overpaying and it's a smart investment.
But can't the same be said for every other position? In this scenario, the Jets pay 10M/year for Parnell McPhee and similarly for Worilds. Good or perhaps better players, but they certainly have flaws too and I'd argue that much money is overpaying too. I agree that you don't want to force too much money for a player who you obviously have concerns about and I, too, would be wary of giving Iupati an Andy Levtire-like deal given his pass blocking woes. NCJetsfan threw out some other good names at OG (though I'm iffy on James Carpenter) who would come a lot cheaper and also offer more in the passing game. You say that you like the young OGs on the team and IMO it's very reasonable to project Aboushi as a starter on one side and maybe the new regime even sees Dozier as a potential starter. Even if that's the case though, that's a lot of youth and inexperience at OG (especially with the new 'franchise' QB behind center) and in this situation you at least need a veteran to compete and start effectively if Dozier isn't quite ready. Doesn't have to be one of the higher end free agents; could be a guy for 1-3M/yr. That's not overpaying and it's a smart investment.[/QUOTE] I think our difference on view on the last part of your statement comes from differing perspectives on where the team is at and how to move forward. I would rather have a very young O-line that learns and grows together. But yes you do need a veteran presence on the O-line, hence absolutely no talk of replacing Mangold and frankly I can't think of a better veteran to lead and mold a group of young offensive linemen. I want an offensive line that 'grows' up together and stays together for hopefully a very long time and the ideal time to start young guards is when you can put them between an experienced tackle and an experienced and exceptional center. I view this year as a rebuilding year, last year should have been a rebuilding year but Idzik completely blew the draft outside of rounds 1 and 2. (you could argue that round 1 could have been used differently considering the WR's that were on the board at the time but Pryor was in discussion as BPA so you can't really knock the decision either). But rounds 3-7 were filled mostly with reaches (except IMHO Dozier). Speaking of O-line I never understood why they let Slauson go, he was better than anything they had at the time and wasn't a bank breaker, but that's another story of how the Jets wound up where they are. As I mentioned previously the Jets are a team that's been in decline post 2010 and they fell off the table fast because of the way they were built to 'win now' despite mostly being an average team in that 'win now' window. The worst thing that happened to the Jets was the mirage season of 2012 where they basically tripped in to an 8-8 record making the team look better than it actually was talent wise. I don't see this team as a one year turnaround project, I don't see the team being a .500 team talent wise regardless of how well they draft this year. They may make .500 but if they do it will be due to the softer portion of the schedule and they'll get pounded by the average to good teams. I may be wrong, I may be right, only time will tell. But at this juncture in time it's how I see the team, a team that for the past 3 seasons have been a .300 winning percentage team talent wise.
I understand why you see Davis as a strength. My disagreement is minor. I like Davis a lot. He's one of the few players that I liked entering the draft, wanted the Jets to draft, and they actually drafted him. I downgrade him because for all of his speed, he's just not very good in coverage. I'm hoping that Bowles and Co. can change that. He's still young and can develop further. Yes, I know that you've said that you think the OL needs a revamp, and we are in total agreement on that. If neither Mariota nor Winston are available at #6, I'm torn between taking an elite pass rusher and perhaps trading down a few spots (if they feel it warranted so as not to reach for him) and securing their LT of the future. Like a franchise QB, it's not often that one is in a position to draft an elite pass rusher, especially a 3-4 OLB pass rusher. That said, the same can pretty much be said about an elite LT prospect. To tell you the truth, if neither of the two QBs are available at #6, I think I'd be happy with either the pass rusher or drafting Brick's future replacement at LT. If the Jets really like one of the OT prospects, be it Flowers, Peat or whomever, I guess I'm leaning slightly in that direction today, since it is such a good, deep class of OLB prospects. In that scenario, assuming that they are the BPA or the Jets can move down a few slots, I'd like to see the Jets get their future LT in round 1, either a topnotch WR prospect or OLB prospect in round 2, and in round 3 take whichever of the two positions they didn't get in round 2. Then in round 4 get either a FS or RB. After that I don't care. Everything you said in your last paragraph is true. That said, there are positions on the Jets that have been steadfastly ignored for years with few, if any picks at all, much less high picks used...FS, OT, and not counting Reilly last year, OLB. With that many OGs having been drafted over the last couple of seasons, and with the ability to fix at least one of their OG positions by signing a FA, and then hopefully Dozier seizing the other in TC, I'm hoping the Jets won't use any more draft picks on the OG position for a while. I want to see them address some of the positions that have been ignored and where there are glaring needs. For all intents and purposes, the WR position can be added to that list, because even though they drafted 3 last year, all 3 appear to suck. I would love to see them add a GOOD WR prospect with deep speed like Dorsett. I'd love to see them add Devante Parker, the White kid, or Cooper, but think securing Brick's replacement or the QB is more important at this point in time. So on these points we are basically in agreement or not far apart.
When you overpay for a guard that's flawed you are tied in to that guard and his flaws for the longer term. Iupati isn't a guard to build a line around if you want to protect a young QB, Iupati is a great run blocker but he has a reputation for being a minus pass blocker. You talk about bringing in a guard to protect a young QB, which I agree with, but you want to bring in guards whose weakness is pass protection? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of protecting the young QB in the pocket? I never said there was such a thing as a perfect player, but there are players that fit the scheme you have in mind and players who don't fit the scheme you have in mind. The Jets in their current state are a trainwreck. The team hasn't been over .500 in 4 seasons, they were a very lucky 8-8 in 2013, a year they really deserved to be 6-10. They were a fortunate 6-10 in 2012 in a year they really deserved 5-11 or 4-12. Last year they were a 4-12 team which about where they should have been. We're not talking about a team that's had 1 down year after several very good years, we're talking about a team that's 26-38 over the past 4 seasons and probably should have been 22-42 over that span, of course that's conjecture on my behalf...it's not Raiders bad but the Jets came from a better 4 year span before this span than the Raiders did. The Jets have been a team in decline since 2010. The Jets weren't even a power house in 2010, they were good but they were veteran good and designed for that very short window. The Jets are now well past that window and several short drafts due to trading picks and a couple of poor drafts have left the teams cupboard bare. Jets fans don't like to hear the term rebuilding, but that's what this team is now if it want's to be more than a .500 team down the road. It's a rebuilding team and IMHO it's going to take 2-3 seasons to turn it around.[/QUOTE] If you've read my posts, you know I'm not in favor of signing Iupati. I only mentioned him because he's the top-rated OG FA, and several posters here do want the Jets to sign him. Carpenter, Franklin and Boling are all weak in pass protection? What's your documentation for that? The rest is just deflection and has nothing to do with the point at hand. For what it's worth, I agree that we are in rebuilding mode. We simply have too many holes both in the starting and backup positions. That's why I think it's ridiculous to spend $95 million on FA OLBs. We aren't ready to compete for the Super Bowl. Spending that kind of money on those two players will not help us get to the SB, because by the time the holes have been addressed, and we're ready to compete, those OLBs will be 30 or close to it, their play will be declining as will their speed. IMO it's better to spread that money out and improve the overall team, not just one unit, and especially the unit that has already been given too much attention over the last 6 years at the expense of the offense.
If you've read my posts, you know I'm not in favor of signing Iupati. I only mentioned him because he's the top-rated OG FA, and several posters here do want the Jets to sign him. Carpenter, Franklin and Boling are all weak in pass protection? What's your documentation for that? The rest is just deflection and has nothing to do with the point at hand. For what it's worth, I agree that we are in rebuilding mode. We simply have too many holes both in the starting and backup positions. That's why I think it's ridiculous to spend $95 million on FA OLBs. We aren't ready to compete for the Super Bowl. Spending that kind of money on those two players will not help us get to the SB, because by the time the holes have been addressed, and we're ready to compete, those OLBs will be 30 or close to it, their play will be declining as will their speed. IMO it's better to spread that money out and improve the overall team, not just one unit, and especially the unit that has already been given too much attention over the last 6 years at the expense of the offense.[/QUOTE] You have to do some work in the FA field, if you look though you'll see that of all the FA's I signed I don't think any of them are older than 27 years of age, they're not stop gaps or guys you need to compete this year or next because they'll be on the downslide in 1 or 2 years. These are all guys with room to get even better and are at least 4-5 years, barring major injury, from being on the downside of their careers. They're there to provide a cushion for the developing offense which I would like to build through the draft to stay together, at least the core of it, for a decade or more. The defensive free agents are there to build a bridge for the transition of the team from a defense first team to a more offensive oriented team. in short I wasn't looking at next year, I was looking the 2 or 3 years following next year. It's also why I slightly front loaded contracts in order to reduce future years cap problems.
You have to do some work in the FA field, if you look though you'll see that of all the FA's I signed I don't think any of them are older than 27 years of age, they're not stop gaps or guys you need to compete this year or next because they'll be on the downslide in 1 or 2 years. These are all guys with room to get even better and are at least 4-5 years, barring major injury, from being on the downside of their careers. They're there to provide a cushion for the developing offense which I would like to build through the draft to stay together, at least the core of it, for a decade or more. The defensive free agents are there to build a bridge for the transition of the team from a defense first team to a more offensive oriented team. in short I wasn't looking at next year, I was looking the 2 or 3 years following next year. It's also why I slightly front loaded contracts in order to reduce future years cap problems.[/QUOTE] Wrong. In three years, 27 year-olds will be 30, which makes them likely 3 year stop-gaps, if they stay that long. 30 is getting old for OLBs. That's been the problem with the Jets. With Thomas and Pace, and then Babin and the guy who spent most of last season on IR, they're all north of 30. They start becoming more injury-prone, get slower, etc. So when the rest of the team is coming together, the guys you paid a ton of money to are aging out already.
Wrong. In three years, 27 year-olds will be 30, which makes them likely 3 year stop-gaps, if they stay that long. 30 is getting old for OLBs. That's been the problem with the Jets. With Thomas and Pace, and then Babin and the guy who spent most of last season on IR, they're all north of 30. They start becoming more injury-prone, get slower, etc. So when the rest of the team is coming together, the guys you paid a ton of money to are aging out already.[/QUOTE] and most of their contracts expire when they're 30 or 31 and entering their downside. Have them in their prime, off the books out of their prime.
The reality is for most position players in the NFL you only have them for 4-5 years in their prime, their first couple of years are spent learning and adjusting to the NFL, their next few years are their prime, and then they generally start their declining years, where that decline begins depends a lot on the position they play, OL tend to have a much longer shelf life while RB's tend to have a much shorter shelf life. There are exceptions of course.
and most of their contracts expire when they're 30 or 31 and entering their downside. Have them in their prime, off the books out of their prime.[/QUOTE] Doh! You missed the point entirely. The point being is that you're spending too much money for short term player rentals. It would be one thing if you were paying that kind of money to a 24 or 25 year old. At least you'd probably get at least 5 years service out of them, and that would give you enough of a window to be a serious contender for a year or two. The way you do it, by the time the team is ready to compete, they'll be off the roster.
Doh! You missed the point entirely. The point being is that you're spending too much money for short term player rentals. It would be one thing if you were paying that kind of money to a 24 or 25 year old. At least you'd probably get at least 5 years service out of them, and that would give you enough of a window to be a serious contender for a year or two. The way you do it, by the time the team is ready to compete, they'll be off the roster.[/QUOTE] You'll never be paying that kind of money to 24 or 25 year olds, well almost never. But most of the players listed are between 26-27 years of age, at most 2 years older than your 25. But the again all players are short term rentals. Most contracts aren't 5 years in nature, very few 24 or 25 year olds will sign a 5 or 6 year contract even if was offered unless you substantially overpay them. Why? they know they're value will probably be higher in a couple of years and it's disadvantageous to sign the longer contract. Wilkerson, for example, will be turn 27 in the 2016 season, by your reasoning no team should want to sign him to a big contract because of his age he's a 'short term rental'. The reality is most players who are worth being starters will be between 25 and 27 years of age when they reach unrestricted free agent status. Generally if a player signs a contract of more than 3 years it's for very large dollars or it's a rookie contract which is 4 years with a 5th year option for first rounders. When you factor that the average age of an NFL rookie is between 21 and 22 years of age most of them by the time they reach their 5the year (assuming the club picked up their 5th year option) they'll be 26-27 years of age when they reach free agency (I know I've said that before but it bears repeating). If a players a good player and you want to only have them during their peak years you're going to be limited to high dollar 3-4 year contracts if the guy is anything other than a JAG. Occasionally you can find a diamond in the rough who gets lower dollars but that's the exception and not the rule and are usually found in players who are cut from a team during their rookie contracts or are career 2nd stringers. Occasionally you'll catch a late bloomer or someone who never really got a fair shot at starting or was playing in the shadow of a star player. so yes, they are rentals, as are most all free agents. Take the jets current roster, it has 5 players who's contracts are in excess of 4 years, aka 5-7 years in length. those players are Percy Harvin (a contract that's already been regretted by 2 teams and will likely be rejected by a 3rd), D'brick is on a 6 year contract that runs through 2017 and is being somewhat regretted with a 10million average salary, Mangold is on a 7 year contract for 7.5 million average, Decker is on a 4 year 7 million deal, and the last is Kyle Wilson who finished the 5th year of his rookie deal in 2014 and is now a UFA at the age of...you guessed it, 27. Getting the picture? if a player is good and has reached UFA without getting cut he's almost certain to be 26-27 years of age.
