I agree you can't accurately base SOS on previous year. Texans, Falcons are prime examples. This is prediction thread though and you have to estimate strength of your competition into predicting your team success. Statistically there is decent chance that the murderous row we are getting starting week 2 will not be as bad as it looks. Can you really discount Pats x2, GB and DEN because statistics say one of them will be worse than looks now? Maybe I'm wrong, but incorporating SOS into prediction, I'd lean toward those team not falling off the face of earth. I'll hope for it, but won't count on it.
Obviously impossible to really predict, so much in the NFL changes from year to year, injuries, luck, etc, so with a grain of salt, I think we'll finish around 10-6 and just squeeze into the playoffs as a wildcard. I think barring major injuries, our defense will be dominant this year, with a much improved secondary, solid linebacker play, and a dominant D-Line. I've been a Jets fan since early-mid 90s, and I don't remember in all that time when we had so much talent spread around the defense (this is assuming that Milliner plays more like he did at the end of the season, and Pryor isn't a bust of course). I think we could really shut some teams down next year. On offense, I am not nearly as optimistic, but I think between all the additions, and either Geno playing better or Vick stepping in, we should still be improved from last year. The big question for me is whether with our offensive line and the combination of Johnson and Ivory, we can really pound the ball on other teams the way we did in 2009 or Seattle did last year. If we can, this would keep our defense fresh, and control the game. In that case, I definitely see us making the playoffs, even if our QB play is still not there.
Sure, I'm not saying we won't face good teams, and the teams who are very consistently good are the teams that will probably be pretty good again. I'm just replying to the sentiment expressed about why more people aren't worried about our strength of schedule. I know one or more of the teams I'm about to list will probably end up being good, but the Lions, Bears, Chargers, and Steelers have been quite inconsistent over the last few years. We always play the Patriots tough, and the Chiefs lost a ton of talent this offseason. Imagine if Peyton goes down with some kind of injury? We'd walk over the Broncos. I'm saying sure you can consider it but there's no reason to worry this far out.
In other words, some will be better than expected, some will be worse... OK, fair enough. So what's your W number?
I'm not sure who to reply to on this one so I wont quote anybody. About SoS: Every year you play 4 1st place teams, 4 2nd place teams, 4 3rd place teams, and 4 4th place teams. So SoS isn't very relevant. I usually look at who we're playing in the NFC to get an idea of how the season will go. We went 3-1 last season against the NFC. Getting 3 wins from plaiyng the Lions, Packers, Bears, and Vikings will be tough.
U are totally missing the point of why the season is played which is to win the SB which WE WILL NOT DO THIS SEASON making our owner record 16 years of giving us fans NOTHING
I don't really see the point of predicting one personally, although I have no problem with people who like to.
I just think it's fun ... plus, it kind of shows the level of optimism among Jets fans heading into the season. And when you think about it, you could argue that it's pointless for us fans to discuss the team at all, since we can't predict anything accurately and we have no control over what the team does. It's all just fun, recreation, and something for us fans to do to help pass the time in the offseason (since no other sport is really that interesting compared to the NFL, at least imo).
Our non-AFC East opponents: Raiders Packers Bears Lions Chargers Broncos Chiefs Steelers Vikings Titans Other than the Broncos and Packers, I don't overly worry about any of those teams. Other than the Packers, the NFC East has generally been weak. As for our AFC opponents, the West is drastically overrated besides the Broncos. We could easily win a lot of games this year.
ALRIGHT, Gotta love your optimism man, HI FIVE!!! lol ...seriously though, why be a fan if you can't be optimistic this time of the year??? I can understand a post like that after the season, but in May, especially after we improved in some key areas in FA and the draft?!
Cause that is what my realistic NYJ analysis shows. Being a realist not living in a NYJ fantasy land like most members on this board I am only stating the facts as I see them. Sorry if I busted your dreamland bubble
9-7 - I don't see any of the rookies making too big an impact this year but I hope Dee starts as he ended last season and the same goes for Geno.
Many teams with no "realistic" chance have won the super bowl in the past (Rams, Giants, Bucs, just to name a few in recent years). There was no "realistic" way a 6th round QB with no NFL experience named Tom Brady could take over midseason and lead the Pats to their 1st SB either. If someone told you that would happen at the time, you would have said they were crazy, or that they were "living in a dreamland". To say we have no chance this year is simply false. Now will it happen? Maybe, maybe not. But we certainly have a chance. If you prefer to live in your own little pessimistic world of closed doors and no hope, however, that's your sad choice. Some day you will understand what I'm talking about and join the rest of us.
If U were a betting man would U put your money on they win the SB or do not win the SB Since that is all that matter is SB Champions or non SB Champion pick one or the other since all else U may say is total BS since the ONLY thing that matters is winning the SB & which BTW is the reason the season is played. Now with your handle I am giving U the ugly dark facts that the NYJs WILL NOT win the SB come Feb 2015 U can take that to the bank. BTW being a NYJ fan since 1965& member of this board since it onset or near onset I think I have a pretty good idea of what side to be in. If you chose to delude yourself with coulda, would, shouda, be my guest but do not expect me to join NYJ fantasyland thank U
Like I said, I didn't come here to bash anyone making those predictions. I like to discuss the x's and o's, contracts, FA's, the draft, even stats... To me those are things that I can at least have a good understanding of with research. Win-loss predictions are based on less than those things, basically fan optimism as you said. I have no problem with optimism, nor those predictions, all I'm saying is I can predict 2-14 or 14-2 with equal confidence so I just leave it to others.
When I looked week by week, I was surprised to discover I picked the Jets in 10 games. I thought I was being pretty conservative considering I included losses @Buffalo and @Tennessee because of past trends. I'll predict 9-7 with two road wins (not quite sure which two) and one home loss to Denver.
Hey champ, if the Jets bring you so much misery, why do you keep watching them play? Why do you keep following them?
If the secondary jells and Geno can makes the throws, 9-7 and into the playoffs. These are big ifs though. Vicks comes in, we could still win 9. I hope that is not the case. The middle part of our schedule is brutal.
Same here. I also think 9-7 is more realistic and that's how I voted. If the ball bounces our way, maybe 10-6.
I love the optimism in this thread, but it might be a little too optimistic. The Jets won 8 games last year but it was a soft 8. Only 2 wins were impressive in defeating the Patriots and Saints at home. The Falcons seemed impressive at the time, but they went nowhere. The team is better, but the schedule is tougher, so we will see.
