Playoff Scenarios

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by sunnygs97, Dec 16, 2006.

  1. Keeper1125

    Keeper1125 Member

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    They're statistically negligible. It's not going to happen.
     
  2. Cakes

    Cakes Mr. Knowledge 2010

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    There actually was one had the Jets lost today. I don't believe there are any remaining now. The reason for that is if the Jets went 9-7 now it would give them another AFC loss. I think they'd lose on tiebreakers due to having what would then be a 6-6 AFC record.
     
  3. Keeper1125

    Keeper1125 Member

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    Alright, I'll play stat-guy for a second. I'm arbitrarily assigning the following probabilities to each game:

    Bengals (50%) @ Colts (50%)
    Bengals (60%) @ Broncos (40%)
    Bengals (60%) vs. Steelers (40%)

    Patriots (60%) @ Jaguars (40%)
    Patriots (75%) vs. Titans (25%)

    Jaguars (50%) vs. Chiefs (50%)

    Broncos (75%) vs. 49ers (25%)

    1) Patriots lose 2 games
    2) Jaguars lose 1 game and Bengals lose 2 games
    3) Jaguars lose 1 game and Broncos lose 1 game
    4) Bengals lose 2 games and Broncos lose 1 game

    Scenario 1 happens 10% of the time.
    Scenario 2 happens 40% of the time.
    Scenario 3 happens 56% of the time.
    Scenario 4 happens 28% of the time.

    The chance of none of those scenarios happening is around 17%. So, if the Jets win out, if you more or less agree with these probabilities, they make the playoffs 83% of the time.

    I've also been very conservative with the percentages, because I actually think it's extremely probable that the Patriots beat the Jaguars and the Bengals beat the Broncos. So, the chance of getting in the playoffs is actually probably a little higher, again, assuming the Jets win out.
     
    #43 Keeper1125, Dec 18, 2006
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2006

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