Peter King: "Jets Struck It Rich" When Fields KO'd Clemson

They can decline 5th year and sign him to anything they want after next season like Flacco or any other QB. He will be FA. It's just that getting Fields, retaining Flacco as a back-up with Morgan also on the second year, and trading Sam seems like a much better path forward.

 

I am operating on the premise that we will draft a QB, and don't want to have 3 young QBs on the roster. Sam is the odd man out as he may still get some value back - being young back-up on another team, and Flacco is a veteran SB winner, who can teach new draftee and Morgan. Also in all fairness, even coming off injury Flacco did have 81 Rating to Sam's 73 this year. I think we can count on him delivering in 80-85 range as a back-up, plus we get Fields as a starter, Morgan #3, and a pick for Sam.

 

Flacco spent the entire season looking at Sam like he was a bug in his coffee. I wouldn't count on him to teach anyone.

 

I have no idea what "the plan" is; but my plan would be to keep as many options open as possible. You do that by keeping Darnold to see if adequate coaching can increase his value, either to the Jets or as trade material. You also find another quarterback with promise, either through the draft or by trade but being cognizant that a rookie contract has far less impact on the budget. Darnold's value to the Jets may be as a backup or as a placeholder until a new QB is ready to play in the NFL; the Jets aren't winning the Super Bowl in 2021 anyway.

There is also the possibility, repeated by many who get paid to observe the NFL, that Darnold still has the capability to be a starter and has been failed by the Jets organization by not adequately addressing problems with his game that were identified even before he was drafted; if that may be the case there should be no hurry to discard him before his true value is determined.

I don't see any possibility that the Jets or any other team would exercise the fifth year option at a projected $25-28 million dollar cost but that would not preclude signing him to a new contract for two years now at about half that amount total with heavy incentives if need be.

 

The 5th year option is a silly thing for fans to worry about. what’s the worst thing that can happen?...he plays well enough that he’s worth paying $25 million to? Oh no! How terrible to have him turn out to be a good QB.

the more likely/hopeful scenario is he plays well enough to be width keeping, but one good year doesn’t give him the leverage to demand Dak Prescott money, or makes the Jets worry too much about letting him walk if he does or someone else over pays him.

 

No, we have to pick up or decline the option by first week of May this year. The worst thing that can happen if we pick up the option is that we pass on a good QB talent in draft, and Fields becomes a star, while Sam continues to suck, and we don't have starting caliber QB in 2021 and 2022, while using 25 mil of CAP Space on a back up QB next year. Therefore, as sure as Gase being fired on Sunday, his 5th year option is not getting picked up by the Jets.

 

So a bunch of rookies are going to prop up a rookie. Got it.

 

I think if the Jets can get a massive haul for pick #2, I think you have to at least consider it.

-They could still take a QB with the Seattle pick.

-They could sign a veteran QB to compete with Darnold.

-They could roll with Darnold and use the extra assets from a trade down to improve the team which is in desperate need of rebuilding.

Having said all of this to say, I wouldn’t hate it if they also decided to wipe the slate clean with a new QB and new HC. (I still believe this to be the most likely scenario, but not as certain as a lot of fans may think)

 

Trading down from #2 makes sense if there is a plan behind doing so. Draft picks shouldn't just be treated like some kind of endowment or insurance policy; if Fields is worth it, it makes no sense to trade that opportunity away.

 

Interestingly, someone reported to Cowherd that 49ers might be looking to move from #12 to #2 to grab Fields, and give up two additional first rounds picks in 2022 and 23, as well as the 3d to do so. If let's say we do that, there could be a QB available at #12, maybe Lance or Jones? However, you have to ask yourself, why would someone give a haul for Fields? The answer is simple: outside of Trevor Lawrence, I don't think anyone has checked as many boxes as a QB prospect as Fields did in a very long time. Good Size - check. Elite athleticism - check. Big arm - check. Leadership - check. Toughness - check. No injury concerns - check. Great mobility - check. Dual threat - check. Big stage performance - check. Tough completion - check. Accuracy - check. Turnover adverse - check. Multiple years of top performance - check. Winner - check. The list goes on and on.

If you go to #12, you give up a lot of these boxes with Lance/Jones. And next year, even with the top overall pick you think someone will be there that checks all these boxes? And it's not like we will have a top pick. Fields goes #1 overall in most drafts since Andrew Luck. I honestly think he goes ahead of Goff, Murray, Baker, and Winston, plus all #1 non QBs. Maybe Burrow goes ahead of him, but that's not a lock as Joe would be 2 years older. It just so happens that there is a Manning/Elway like talent in this draft in Lawrence, so compared to that Fields is behind, as he is not a sure thing like Lawrence is. But he is close, and it so happens we need a QB even more than 49ers do. If Fields is worth this much to them, he sure as hell is worth it to us.

 

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying the compensation from SF would be. Is it their #12 pick, a 3rd this year and their 1st rounders in 2022 and 2023? That's nowhere near enough! If Douglas accepted that I would question his intelligence. To move off of #2 out of the top 10 I would want at least TWO 1sts this year, plus a 2nd or possibly a very high 3rd, AND their 1st next year and a mid-round pick to even consider the offer. Whoever suggested that trade had to have been a 49'ers fan.

 

He said it would be #12 overall this year, first rounder 2022, first rounder 2023, and a third rounder (not sure when, maybe this year, but could be next) for #2 overall to take Fields. I completely agree I would not take it also. In fact I would not consider any offer and just grab Fields. Too much potential there. Look at the AFC QBs we have to contend with: Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Jackson, Lawrence, Herbert, Tannehill, Big Ben, Burrow, Carr, Mayfield. We cannot go into every game with this gap at QB, even if we get some value players off of these extra picks. Would be nice to be on par in this department sometimes or dare I say even ahead? Fields is the best chance to get rid of this massive disadvantage.

 

How many teams have two first round picks in a draft? That’s an unrealistic requirement for any trade.

 

If they want the pick bad enough they trade to get the 2nd first. It's not unrealistic at all.

 

If you trust the analytics trading down is the right move. The hit rate on a first round QB (even in the top 5) is not that high.

However it is a risky proposition for JD. What if Fields/Zach Wilson light it up and look like Justin Herbert while Sam confines to struggle?

 

Herbert is an interesting example — drafted 6th. I think @Borat listed the draft placements of SB winning QB’s over the last 20 years and only two were drafted in the top 2. If you can trade out of two, perhaps with the Bengals, and still get Wilson at 5, maybe it doesn’t matter whether Fields lights it up. Getting a QB at five or lower will likely lead to no difference in the team winning the SB, which is the ultimate goal.

 

Yeah but it's a lot higher than the hit rate when selecting a QB outside of the top 5. What's our plan at QB if we don't take one here? We almost never pick this high. Odds are we'll just have to trade a bunch of picks to move up in the future if we don't get one now.

It's a crapshoot but it's the game you have to play with QB's given how important they are.

 

This is a good point and something I've been trying to remind myself of. No matter how much I think I know about the prospects it's a guarantee that JD knows way more about them. At a certain point we need to trust our guy if we really think he's our GM of the future.

I guess I'm just so used to Mac doing the literal opposite of the right thing that I have GM trust issues lmao.

 

I don't know how Joe Douglas has this group of QBs rated, but in defense of Justin Fields I will say that Justin exhibits ALL of the traits that JoeD seems to look for in players he drafts.....tough, mature, football-first mentality. Team Captains. Independent of stats, I would think that Field's tough, competitive personality puts him at or near the top.