No shit. You pick the QB you think is the best. You can't assume or guarantee anything. What are we arguing? This is all about chances. You have a higher chance of picking the best QB with an earlier pick.
Yes, of course it makes it "enigmatic". I'm not claiming that I guarantee that I know what Douglas will do...I'm just giving my opinion based on the things we can all see Using your Eagles example, he might well have seen how much they gave up to get Wentz and has decided "That was a waste", or he might decide that it was a good gamble and that the Eagles subsequently screwed it up by not keeping the talent level high enough around Wentz (like we did with Darnold). In short, I have NO idea, and didn't mean to imply that I know for certain.
No, you don't. Only 2 of those SB winning QBs since 2000 were chosen first. Of course getting the QB you covet has a higher chance of success the higher you are drafting, but there is no definite correlation between draft order and SB victory.
Believe me, if you had seen that game, and the obvious pain that Fields was in, the guts he showed, how he put the team above himself, the leadership he showed, and how great he played, you wouldn't have made that statement, and that's why I said it was ridiculous and wacky. Anyone who saw that game would NEVER doubt Field's love and respect for the game and for his teammates, willingness to play through pain, and give his all for the team.
Love this, very well said. So many of our fans are looking at this like checkers instead of chess. We need to think multiple moves ahead.
So what's your plan? Wait until we have the #1 overall pick? Something we haven't had in 24 years? This also doesn't consider that Fields would go #1 most years, it just so happens Lawrence is in his class.
Well I think we're sort of on the same side in wanting the Jets to get a bonafide FQB, so I don't want to nitpick, but... You can't just say "take a QB in the first round and that will automatically give you better odds of winning a SB". Mahomes was a first round pick but was not the first QB taken, and that's true of the majority of even first round QBs that won a SB. So the point is that even if you draft a QB with your highest first round pick, you still don't have great odds of winning the SB with that QB. I really don't have the time or energy to calculate the percentage of how many first-picked QBs have won a SB, but I'm confident that its likely in the single digits, thus making it not much more of an advantage to a team vs. drafting one with a later pick. And yet, I still want the Jets to take Fields or Wilson at #2!
Haha Of course are odds are very low even with that 1st round QB, but I think our chances increase if we take the guy we think is the best or 2nd best. There's more 1st Round Super Bowl winning QBs than any other round, even if it's a low number.
Great post! This is another one that some of our posters ought to read and re-read and take to heart. All QBs are not equal. To be a great team and perennial contender, one has to have a FQB. One rarely finds those outside of the top 10 of the draft.
We know that he liked Jackson, Flacco, and Boller enough to draft them. We also know that he traded up for all three of those QBs - Jackson, Flacco, and Boller. Smith had already taken Hayden Hurst at #25 in the 2018 draft when he traded up from the 2nd round to take Jackson. He traded up from #26 to #18 to take Flacco. Flacco he took ahead of four players who went on to become Pro Bowlers (Aqib Talib, Chris Johnson, Mike Jenkins, and Duane Brown), and Flacco was the 2nd QB taken after Matt Ryan. He had already taken Terrell Suggs with Baltimore's 1st round pick in the 2003 draft, when he traded up from the 2nd round to get Boller. I think it's pretty safe to say that he did value the QB position, so if anything, Douglas saw Ozzie aggressively trading up to take all 3 QBs. I do think Douglas will look for the best value he can get within reason. Therefore, I think if he likes Fields, he'll take him at #2. If he likes Wilson, he may try to trade down with Cincinnati and take Wilson there, or he may stay put. If he likes Lance, then he may take him at #27, and wouldn't have to trade up from the 2nd round, but he might trade up from #27 (or wherever the Seattle pick winds up).
I disagree. See my earlier response to you. Ozzie aggressively traded up to get Jackson, Flacco and Boller, yet only won 2 SBs. Douglas could easily recognize that Baltimore perhaps should have won several more SBs if they had a true FQB. He may have learned that having a good/solid starting QB wasn't good enough. He might want to try to replicate what Belichick did with Brady or what the Niners did with Montana and Steve Young. In fact, I hope that he will, and will be disappointed if he settles for just an average NFL starting QB.
There are no guarantees. A team just has to do their scouting work, and then when they really like a QB and have the chance to take him, they have to take him, even if it means trading up if they can. I doubt that any team needing a QB would have passed on P. Manning or Luck, but they passed on Mahomes and A. Rodgers.
I don't think that anyone is saying reach for a QB at #2. I'm shocked that you don't really like Fields and don't think he's worth the #2 pick. Is it because he is a running QB? What about him don't you like or believe in?
Chess is a game of strategy and patience and the people panicking and saying that you absolutely have to draft a QB this year are displaying neither.
No. That may be because he wasn't willing to burn the necessary draft capital to do so, but then it may also be because he didn't think that Matt Ryan, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen or Rosen were worth it (good enough). He may have thought that Jackson was the best QB prospect in the draft or at least not that far behind the other 4 and knew he could get Jackson where he did.
