Not sure where you live but multiply that by 1000 including half the people you know, every newspaper, FM DJs, etc. No way in fuck I can root for the Giants, I root against them my whole life anyway.
ESPN Insider article Originally Published: February 1, 2012 How to stop Tom Brady The Giants need to generate pressure, even if it means blitzing a DB EmailPrintComments By Dean Oliver ESPN Insider Archive David Butler II/US Presswire The Giants have already shown this season that they can get pressure on Tom Brady. How to stop Tom Brady | How to stop Eli Manning Tom Brady seems to have everything. He is an All-Pro and a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, just as he dreamed of being as a kid watching Joe Montana at Candlestick Park. (We've all heard that fairy tale, right?) He also has a Brazilian supermodel as a wife, which is probably beyond what he dreamed of as a kid. But there is something Brady doesn't do: dance. Put it this way: Brady can move his feet a little bit, but escape ability is a problem. When Brady has to move around to deal with pressure, well, he just doesn't look too good. Disagree all you want, but his numbers bear this out. When pressured, he completes just 41 percent of his passes; he isn't able to scramble; and his Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) -- which accounts for throwing, running and avoiding sacks -- is just 7.5 out of 100. When he doesn't have to dance back there, he can do what he does best -- throw accurately to receivers. He completes almost 70 percent of his passes in these situations, and his QBR jumps to 86.2, which ranked behind only Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers this year. Can the New York Giants generate enough pressure to exploit his lone weakness? Brady has a solid offensive line to protect him, and, perhaps more importantly, the Patriots' receivers run short, quick routes so he doesn't have to hold the ball very long. The Patriots were fifth in the league in shortest time to throw the ball. But, unlike in many years, Brady did get sacked more than average in 2011 and more than he had been since the 2001 season. So, how did the best defenses stop Brady this season? Let's look at two situations: passing downs and running downs. Against the Patriots on typical passing downs, successful defenses seemed to blitz a defensive back. It's no guarantee and isn't something to do every down, but doing it every six or seven pass situations is better than doing it every nine or 10. This is true whether or not New England has two tight ends on the field and whether or not you're playing extra defensive backs. Using a defensive back to blitz every few plays can throw off Brady's rhythm. (Note that simply sending a lot of guys on a blitz doesn't work.) Brady also has a prime throwing zone: He likes throwing it about 4-9 yards, often using short routes by Wes Welker, or his great tight end tandem. Throwing it many yards in the air or taking the short dump-off haven't been good for him, and this is true whether it's a passing situation or not. Getting him out of that comfort zone can be accomplished in part through press coverage -- tight coverage at the line of scrimmage on all receivers. This method has had some success. In run situations, you have to (cliché coming) be aggressive against the Patriots but keep containment. Get at least six defenders in the box and plan to chase what's behind the line of scrimmage. If it ends up a run, you improve your odds of keeping it short. If it ends up a pass, you're chasing Brady and can force him into mistakes. The Giants are in a pretty good situation to accomplish these things because they have the tools to make Brady shuffle. They've always had that good pass rush, getting pressure with a four-man rush better than the average team. What has happened in their hot streak is that they have also figured out how to cover receivers, even when they don't get pressure on the QB. The first 14 weeks of the season, the Giants were fifth worst in QBR when they didn't get pressure. Since then, including the playoffs, they have been fifth best. This improved coverage has helped the Giants to force quarterbacks into taking a lot of time to throw the ball. So there is the basic conflict: Brady is good at getting rid of the ball quickly, and the Giants are good at forcing quarterbacks to hold on to it. If they keep Brady in the pocket and force him through all his reads while the pressure converges, they'll have a great chance to win another Super Bowl. Dean Oliver is ESPN's director of production analytics, helping to construct Total QBR. He previously was the director of quantitative analysis in the front office of the Denver Nuggets from 2006 to 2011.
If this isn't encouraged, my bad. Originally Published: February 1, 2012 Scouts Chatter: Giants' WRs vs. Pats' D No argument here: New England's secondary appears to be overmatched EmailPrintComments Scouts Inc. Editor's note: Tuesday through Thursday during Super Bowl week, Scouts Inc. will tackle a key element of the Giants-Patriots matchup from a coaching perspective. Today, Gary Horton and Matt Williamson examine New York's wide receivers -- how they should attack New England's defense and what, if anything, the Pats' suspect secondary can do to combat them. Giants can exploit mismatches Perhaps the Super Bowl matchup that favors either team the most is the Giants' exceptional group of wide receivers against the Patriots' cover men. New York will not abandon the run against the Patriots, but it will become very tempting to just put this game on Eli Manning's shoulders and ask him to throw all over the suspect New England secondary. If it were up to me, I would undoubtedly emphasize an 11 personnel grouping (1 RB/1 TE) for the Giants' offense in the Super Bowl. The reason is simple: It gets New York's best offensive players on the field -- and it gets the worst Patriots players on the field. It really is that simple in this case. [+] Enlarge William Perlman/The Star-Ledger/US Presswire Victor Cruz's explosiveness could be a big factor, especially if he goes up against Julian Edelman. Along with Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham at wide receiver, Ahmad Bradshaw would be my running back of choice and Jake Ballard the tight end. Bradshaw's versatility in the passing game -- both as a pass-catcher and in protection -- would be extremely valuable. Ballard's physicality to help as a run- and pass-blocker while also contributing some as a receiver over the middle would also be an asset. Brandon Jacobs could get some time here and there, but Bradshaw is perfect for this game plan -- and I think he is clearly the better runner as well. I would also employ a sixth offensive lineman at times instead of Ballard to help in protection -- particularly for the deep passing game -- and also incorporate Travis Beckum instead of Ballard at times, with the intention of splitting Beckum out and giving the Patriots a four-wide look. It very well could change, but Julian Edelman has been the Patriots' slot cornerback. Edelman's contributions on defense are noble, but Cruz has a massive advantage over Edelman in the slot. The Giants also have massive matchup advantages with Manningham and especially Nicks on the outside versus CBs Kyle Arrington and Sterling Moore, with Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty at safety in New England's nickel defense. The other aspect of this matchup that should be extremely worrisome for New England is giving up the big play in the passing game. New York's passing attack is very explosive and vertically inclined. Chung is better against the run and near the line of scrimmage than deep in coverage, and McCourty is new to playing safety. As a result, and because the Pats' corners and individual pass-rushers are less than stellar, the Patriots allow a lot of big plays. Of course, Bill Belichick will probably have a new wrinkle or two in this area, but as it stands, the Patriots' pass defense could be in for a very long day against Manning and his wide receivers. -- Matt Williamson
Originally Published: January 31, 2012 Scouts Chatter: Pats' TEs vs. Giants' D Hernandez-Gronkowski duo poses problems, but Giants well-equipped to solve them EmailPrintComments 3 Scouts Inc. How To Defend Gronk Stuart Scott with ESPN NFL Analysts Herm Edwards and Merril Hoge demonstrate how the Giants need to defend Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski in the Super Bowl should he play. Tags: New England Patriots, Rob Gronkowski VIDEO PLAYLIST How To Defend Gronk Gronk Impressions Reiss Wake Up Call NFL32OT - Episode 73 Editor's note: From Tuesday through Thursday during Super Bowl week, Scouts Inc. will tackle a key element of the Giants-Patriots matchup from a coaching perspective. Today, Gary Horton and Matt Williamson examine New England's tight ends -- how they attack a defense and how to go about containing them. Duo's versatility gives Pats options The duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is the most versatile and productive in the NFL and it is a matchup nightmare for this Giants defense. The two can move anywhere around the formation with motion or alignment, and because they are on the field at the same time, figuring out how to defend them is a real challenge. Gronkowski, who's battling a high ankle sprain, wins with size, underrated athletic ability and terrific hands. Hernandez is TE/H-back type with a wide receiver's skill set. Because Hernandez can line up in the backfield, how does a defense categorize him? Is he a running back or a tight end? And when he is in the backfield, the Pats can line up in a spread formation with Hernandez as the only back. [+] Enlarge Ron Chenoy/US Presswire Aaron Hernandez is a tight end with a wide receiver's skill set. And he can play running back, too. Gronkowski will line up at tight end and sometimes block, then release, and he is devastating on the seam route, especially if he gets a free release. If the Giants try to press him at the line of scrimmage, he will simply use his big body to shield and post up the defender, especially in the red zone. He also draws so much attention that he will take coverage with him to open up things for Hernandez on underneath routes, and don't forget about Wes Welker versus a linebacker in the slot because of the tight end coverage. These tight ends want to attack the Giants' safeties and linebackers in coverage, and if a corner tries to cover them, it is jump-ball time. Tom Brady will use pre-snap movement and alignment to try to determine how the Giants want to cover the tight ends. He will use the no-huddle with both on the field to keep the defense in its base package, and that creates matchup advantages. The Pats are not even opposed to putting Gronkowski in the backfield at times to get him matched on a linebacker. The other wrinkle that could be a factor in this game is RT Nate Solder lining up as a third tight end and an extra offensive lineman in short-yardage and goal-line packages. In the no-huddle, this personnel grouping could give the Giants a lot of problems, and keep in mind that Solder is a threat to release and catch a pass in the red zone. -- Gary Horton Giants capable of handling challenge Stopping the unique combination of Gronkowski and Hernandez is simply a brutal chore for every defense. There just isn't a great answer to eliminating the two Patriots tight ends from the equation -- especially with Brady pulling the trigger. But in Super Bowl XLVI, the first key New York must diagnose is the health of Gronkowski, who suffered what might have been a significant ankle injury in the AFC Championship Game. Gronkowski is expected to play, but if the Giants can tell very early in the game he is less effective than normal, that obviously makes their job much easier and alters the game plan. But for the sake of this exercise, let's assume Gronkowski will be the same fantastic all-around tight end we have seen all season. Hernandez counts as a wide receiver in my book, not a tight end. So in turn, when he is on the field with two wideouts, usually Welker and Deion Branch, I would have extra defensive backs on the field to account for New England's passing game. More so than most NFL defenses, the Giants employ a "Big Nickel" personnel grouping with two cornerbacks and three safeties -- and they used this grouping against New England's base 12 (1 RB/2 TE) personnel in Week 9. New York has three quality safeties in Kenny Phillips, Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant. None of these players on his own merit is a great one-on-one matchup with Hernandez or Gronkowski, but these three along with Michael Boley, who is a strong coverage linebacker, and LB Mathias Kiwanuka, who is adept at rerouting tight ends at the line of scrimmage, give the Giants a plethora of defenders who can be used in a variety of coverage schemes. Expect some man concepts mixed with zones along with bracket coverage on the tight ends. New York trusted its safeties in man coverage against Gronkowski and Hernandez in the regular-season matchup. Another huge key for New York is getting Hernandez and Gronkowski on the ground after the catch, as they both excel with the ball in their hands. Also, it's imperative the Giants rush the passer extremely well with just the front four. New York is loaded with fantastic pass-rushers. That isn't a secret. But not only should the Giants have luck in rushing and hitting Brady with just four men, they will have the luxury of keeping seven players in coverage to deal with New England's receivers, most notably Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker, who all do their best work in the middle of the field, which should be crowded on Sunday. The Giants should dare Brady to go deep since New England doesn't have a true deep threat and could struggle to protect that long. New York would, in turn, dedicate more coverage to the middle of the field, which is where Brady does most of his damage. This isn't as terrible of a matchup for the Giants as it is for most defenses. -- Matt Williamson Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com. Follow Matt Williamson on Twitter @WilliamsonNFL
FEB 1 10:06 AM ET EmailPrintComments 6 Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images Eli Manning could add to his Hall of Fame candidacy with another Super Bowl win. Adam Schefter answers reader questions in his mailbag twice a week. Got a query of your own? Submit it here. Q: I know I'm getting ahead of myself, Adam, but if Eli Manning wins would you consider him a Hall of Fame QB? -- Kermit (Kansas) A: He's beginning to make his case, Kermit, absolutely. And should Manning come up with another win Sunday, to go to 2-0 in the big game, his case would become even more compelling. In Friday's 10 Spot, I made the argument that Manning is on his way to becoming the best and most productive quarterback ever to play in New York and New Jersey. But he's also creeping closer and closer to Canton with each win he registers now. And one more win Sunday would fortify Manning's case and make it even more likely he would one day be joining his brother, Peyton, in the Pro Football Hall of Fame -- in what could be the first brother combination to be inducted into the Hall. Q: The New York Giants' running game has been much better during the playoffs. Do you think they'll make a concerted effort to establish the run or just attack a weak Patriots secondary? -- Larry (D.C.) A: In recent years, Larry, the Giants have transformed themselves from more of a running team into more of a passing team. In a passing league, New York clearly has adapted. I think, in a perfect world, the Giants would use the pass Sunday to get up on the Patriots, then use the run to keep Tom Brady off the field and keep the lead on the scoreboard. But the flow of the game will dictate what the Giants wind up doing. They have the capabilities of doing each, passing or running. And, with the way New York has run the ball this postseason, they're in position to be able to do it successfully Sunday against New England. Q: The Giants' D-line has been so good of late. Do you think they can get consistent pressure on Brady, or at least force Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski to stay in and block? -- Mike (Oklahoma) A: Whenever these teams have played in recent times, be it this season or in Super Bowl XLII, the Giants have gotten plenty of pressure on Brady and made him uncomfortable in the pocket. They're going to have to do it again Sunday to win this game. As complex as football can be, it boils down to whether the Giants' first-rate pass rush can pressure Brady. If it can, the Giants' chances of winning this game improve dramatically. But this also is a different Patriots offensive attack from the one the Giants thwarted in the last Super Bowl the two teams played. Back then, New England had more of a vertical passing game. Now, it uses quick strikes, which will make it more difficult for the Giants to get pressure. Brady will be looking to get rid of the ball quickly to neutralize that pass rush, whether or not New England keeps in an extra tight end. Q: With the emergence of Victor Cruz, do you think the Giants will re-sign Mario Manningham in the offseason? What other key FAs could New York lose? -- Fred (West Virginia) A: It creates a really interesting situation, Fred. Someone is going to pay Manningham some pretty decent money. Whatever someone pays him will be considerably more than the Giants pay Cruz. And that could create an odd locker room dynamic. Those types of situations happen. But the Giants at some point are going to have to pay Hakeem Nicks and Cruz, and, if they pay Manningham now, it's going to be very difficult to pay all three receivers. Now, maybe Manningham will not generate as much interest on the open market as he hopes, but that's unlikely. Someone will be interested in his services, and someone will be willing to make him a solid offer. And, if that happens, it will make it challenging for the Giants to bring him back to New York. It's just the way the game works. As much as the Giants would rather not lose him, they can't afford to pay everyone. Q: I feel like the inexperience of the Giants' linebackers has been covered up by New York's dominant pass rush. If they don't get pressure, they're in trouble. For example, who is covering Wes Welker? Or for that matter, Hernandez or Gronkowski? -- Owen (Washington) A: Again, Owen, I come back to the quick passes, the short strikes, the condensed passing game Brady has mastered with these tight ends. It is a good way to try to neutralize one of the best pass rushes in football. And people forget that the Giants are missing their best cornerback, Terrell Thomas, who suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. New York sure could use Thomas on Sunday, even though the Giants' cornerbacks have played well in his absence. And yes, New York has question marks at linebacker. But it hasn't hurt the Giants yet, likely because their pass rush has been so good.
Originally Published: February 1, 2012 How to stop Tom Brady The Giants need to generate pressure, even if it means blitzing a DB EmailPrintComments By Dean Oliver ESPN Insider Archive David Butler II/US Presswire The Giants have already shown this season that they can get pressure on Tom Brady. How to stop Tom Brady | How to stop Eli Manning Tom Brady seems to have everything. He is an All-Pro and a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, just as he dreamed of being as a kid watching Joe Montana at Candlestick Park. (We've all heard that fairy tale, right?) He also has a Brazilian supermodel as a wife, which is probably beyond what he dreamed of as a kid. But there is something Brady doesn't do: dance. Put it this way: Brady can move his feet a little bit, but escape ability is a problem. When Brady has to move around to deal with pressure, well, he just doesn't look too good. Disagree all you want, but his numbers bear this out. When pressured, he completes just 41 percent of his passes; he isn't able to scramble; and his Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) -- which accounts for throwing, running and avoiding sacks -- is just 7.5 out of 100. When he doesn't have to dance back there, he can do what he does best -- throw accurately to receivers. He completes almost 70 percent of his passes in these situations, and his QBR jumps to 86.2, which ranked behind only Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers this year. Can the New York Giants generate enough pressure to exploit his lone weakness? Brady has a solid offensive line to protect him, and, perhaps more importantly, the Patriots' receivers run short, quick routes so he doesn't have to hold the ball very long. The Patriots were fifth in the league in shortest time to throw the ball. But, unlike in many years, Brady did get sacked more than average in 2011 and more than he had been since the 2001 season. So, how did the best defenses stop Brady this season? Let's look at two situations: passing downs and running downs. Against the Patriots on typical passing downs, successful defenses seemed to blitz a defensive back. It's no guarantee and isn't something to do every down, but doing it every six or seven pass situations is better than doing it every nine or 10. This is true whether or not New England has two tight ends on the field and whether or not you're playing extra defensive backs. Using a defensive back to blitz every few plays can throw off Brady's rhythm. (Note that simply sending a lot of guys on a blitz doesn't work.) Brady also has a prime throwing zone: He likes throwing it about 4-9 yards, often using short routes by Wes Welker, or his great tight end tandem. Throwing it many yards in the air or taking the short dump-off haven't been good for him, and this is true whether it's a passing situation or not. Getting him out of that comfort zone can be accomplished in part through press coverage -- tight coverage at the line of scrimmage on all receivers. This method has had some success. In run situations, you have to (cliché coming) be aggressive against the Patriots but keep containment. Get at least six defenders in the box and plan to chase what's behind the line of scrimmage. If it ends up a run, you improve your odds of keeping it short. If it ends up a pass, you're chasing Brady and can force him into mistakes. The Giants are in a pretty good situation to accomplish these things because they have the tools to make Brady shuffle. They've always had that good pass rush, getting pressure with a four-man rush better than the average team. What has happened in their hot streak is that they have also figured out how to cover receivers, even when they don't get pressure on the QB. The first 14 weeks of the season, the Giants were fifth worst in QBR when they didn't get pressure. Since then, including the playoffs, they have been fifth best. This improved coverage has helped the Giants to force quarterbacks into taking a lot of time to throw the ball. So there is the basic conflict: Brady is good at getting rid of the ball quickly, and the Giants are good at forcing quarterbacks to hold on to it. If they keep Brady in the pocket and force him through all his reads while the pressure converges, they'll have a great chance to win another Super Bowl. Dean Oliver is ESPN's director of production analytics, helping to construct Total QBR. He previously was the director of quantitative analysis in the front office of the Denver Nuggets from 2006 to 2011.
Wasn't Mankins the same class act who held out for most of last season and then got his ass blasted vs the Jets in the divisional game? Oh and he was apart of that drama with Vincent Jackson in the offseason too...his words mean nothing.
Originally Published: January 31, 2012 Predicting Super Bowl XLVI Breaking down the game, plus which way the prop bets should go EmailPrintComments 37 By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner numberFire AP Photo/Winslow Townson Super Bowl XLVI is inching closer by the day. Can the Giants pull off another upset? Although media drama dominates right now heading into a Super Bowl rematch between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, many of you are more concerned with predicting the matchup (and the props). Us, too, so let's dive in. Offense By now, everyone knows the Patriots have an edge on offense, with their No. 2 opponent-adjusted passing attack and No. 6 opponent-adjusted running game. The effective passing does wonders for the rushing game despite what conventional statistics might indicate: Although they rank just 20th in rushing yards, the Patriots know when to run, and, when they do, they do it efficiently. Their 47 percent run success rate is phenomenal, third in the NFL behind only the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints. The Giants, on the other hand, have the 30th-ranked success rate, a mundane 37 percent. Eli Manning has been leading a dominant Giants passing attack that includes two of the most efficient receivers in the league. The Giants rank sixth in the league after adjusting for the strength of opposing pass defenses, and they'll need every yard they can scrounge up against the high-flying Patriots. As good as the Giants are, though, the Patriots are simply much, much better. In fact, the Patriots' passing game increases their chances of scoring by almost three-and-a-half times versus the Giants' aerial assault on every single play. On average, the Patriots add a touchdown above expectation per every 30 passing plays; if you substituted a league-average passing attack in for the Pats', they'd score about 10 fewer points per game through the air. For the Giants, that advantage is reduced to 2½ points. Defense On the defensive side of the ball, although the Giants are vastly improved over their playoff hot streak, they are still a league-average defense. They prevent just one point from being scored per game that a league-average defense would allow. Even being average in this regard is better than the Patriots, though; their defense allows 1.5 more points than an average defense would per game. The real matchup to watch, though, is how the Patriots' ramshackle secondary handles the elite receivers of the Giants. The Pats are the No. 28 opponent-adjusted passing defense in the league, surrendering huge chunks of yards through the air week in and week out. On the opposite side of the line, you have Victor Cruz, who was the fourth most efficient receiver in the league this year, adding five points above expectation to the Giants' offense for every four receptions. Add in another point per reception above expectation from Hakeem Nicks and you have serious problems for a weak Patriots secondary. Still, there is a silver lining for New England. Although Cruz was fourth in the league in efficiency, the Patriots can boast two players who were even better: Rob Gronkowski (No. 3) and Wes Welker (No. 1). Game projection Most analysts predict this to be a very close game, and our numbers agree. The Giants have strengths that can exploit the Patriots' weaknesses, and vice versa. Add in a dose of history and you have the makings of a great Super Bowl. A little bit about our methodology: We used advanced efficiency metrics to evaluate every aspect of both teams. Note that these metrics are very different from traditional statistics. For example, even though the Patriots rank just No. 20 in rushing yards, the fact that they run the ball successfully 47 percent of the time means they're a much better offensive unit than they're given credit for. Once we have those metrics, we then find the most comparable teams and matchups based on these efficiency scores. With each matchup weighted based on how similar the teams are to the 2011 Patriots and Giants, we aggregate the results to attain highly accurate projections of future performance. We found more than 1,000 games that were statistically significant in their similarity to the Super Bowl. The good news is that these predictors think the game will be close, perhaps down to the last drive. The bad news, at least for Giants fans, is that sometimes close just isn't good enough. Prediction: New England 28, New York 24 Prop bet analysis Another aspect of the Super Bowl experience is the hundreds of prop bets offered around the game, everything from who'll win the coin flip to what color the Gatorade bath will be, should one occur. Just like the game projection itself, our system allows us to quantitatively look at each one to provide value to anyone who wants to take a shot on some of the props. Prop: A team during the game will not score three unanswered times. (+155, on Bovada) We'll start off with what seems on the surface to be a surefire thing. With teams that are this evenly matched, the likelihood of a team scoring three straight times seems low -- certainly not enough to make it an underdog bet. The math, however, says otherwise. The past three seasons indicate that a team scored three straight times in 71.1 percent of games, which means this particular scenario happens only 28.9 percent of the time. A money line of plus-155 implies a likelihood of 39.22 percent, so the odds are dramatically against you if you take this bet. Of course, this being Vegas, the other side of this prop isn't minus-155. No, It's minus-190, which is just high enough to scare smart money away. Prop: How many yards will the first touchdown of the game be? This is another interesting prop because it plays into the anecdotal evidence that because both of these teams have high-powered offenses, the likelihood of a longer touchdown is higher than usual. Even if you factor in defensive and special-teams touchdowns, though, this holds true only for the Giants. The average touchdown length for the Patriots is only 12.70 yards, whereas the Giants' average is a little higher at 20.76 yards. As such, ignore the low-likelihood props at either end (such as 1-7 yards at 5-4 and 26-39 yards at 5-1) and focus on the intermediate ones: 8-15 yards at 4-1 and our pick, 16-25 yards at 9-2. Prop: Will the Patriots have more or fewer than two sacks? (Over 2, +110, on Bovada) This is another prop that jumps out on the surface because, over the course of the year, the Patriots average 2.5 sacks per game. This is notable because not only is it a figure that is already above the prop but it's also one that is giving value at plus-110. Of course, there are two teams on the field, so let's look at the Giants from a sack prevention standpoint. The Giants have given up 28 sacks, a little under the prop at 1.75 per game. That's not the whole story, though. Given that the Giants are likely to throw the ball more often to expose the Patriots' poor secondary and to keep up with what is likely to be an offensive shootout, they're going to be dropping back more than in an average game. Additionally, the San Francisco 49ers sacked Manning six times, perhaps showing coach Bill Belichick some interesting ideas for how to blitz the Giants. Our 10 strongest predictors show an average of 2.7 sacks for teams similar to the Patriots, so we feel very confident in taking the over here. Prop: Will Ahmad Bradshaw have more or fewer than 2.5 receptions? (Over 2.5, -115 on Bovada) This is another example of line makers using anecdotal and public opinion to set a line. Most casual fans don't think of Bradshaw as a threat in the receiving game, certainly not with Cruz, Nicks, Mario Manningham and Jake Ballard running wild against a soft Patriots secondary. Bradshaw has been over 2.5 receptions in each of the past four games, however, including a matchup against a similarly porous secondary in Green Bay. Following the logic that Belichick is likely to double the playmaking receivers and cede shorter completions to bleed a slightly slower death, Bradshaw likely will be available in the flat on most passing downs. The combination of matchup plus recent history shakes this out as an easy over despite common misconceptions about Bradshaw's skill set. NumberFire is a sports analytics platform that uses algorithmic modeling to better understand sports. Follow Nik Bonaddio at @numberfire and Keith Goldner at @drivebyfootball. 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Originally Published: January 31, 2012 Giants should lean on running game New York's rushing attack has improved late in the season; Pats can't stop the run EmailPrintComments 16 By KC Joyner ESPN Insider Archive Nick Laham/Getty Images Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have played better down the stretch. There were many head-to-head battles that looked like they would be hotly contested in Super Bowl XVI, but the one matchup that had all the makings of a big advantage for the Cincinnati Bengals was their strong run defense (ranked ninth-best in rush yards allowed) versus a San Francisco 49ers rushing offense that ranked dead-last in the league in rush yards per attempt that season. This combination would have made most coaches put together a game plan that rarely even attempted to run the ball, much less lean on the ground game, but then-San Francisco coach Bill Walsh wasn't built like other coaches. He wasn't willing to simply concede that part of the contest without a fight. Walsh called for 12 rush plays on obvious passing downs (second or third down and 7 or more yards) and that helped the Niners pick up 63 yards on those plays. Add in the use of an unbalanced line -- and some scrambles and sneaks by Joe Montana -- and it was the core of a stat sheet that showed San Francisco running the ball 40 times on its way to a 26-21 victory. The New York Giants look to be in a similar boat to the Niners, in that their 2011 rushing numbers (last in the league in rush yards and rush yards per attempt) would strongly suggest not running the ball very often in their Super Bowl XLVI matchup against the New England Patriots. Add that to New York's passing strengths and the Patriots' weaknesses on pass defense (next-to-last in pass yards allowed, 29th in pass yards per attempt allowed) and it would seem that an aerial-heavy game plan would be the way to go for Big Blue to pull off a victory. The truth of the matter is that a closer look at the metrics of both teams provides strong indications that to win, the Giants should call for as many rushing attempts as coach Tom Coughlin and offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride desire. To illustrate this, let's first take a look at how New York's ground game did in the good-blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric. GBYPA gauges how productive a ball carrier is on plays in which he is given good blocking (the loose definition of which is when the offensive blockers do not allow the defenders to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt). This metric is of paramount importance because multiple studies I have done over the years have shown that almost every team gains between 1-2 yards per attempt on plays with poor blocking (the loose definition of which is when the defense is able to do something to disrupt the rush attempt). That means the biggest variances in rushing productivity will occur in the good-blocking area. New York had its struggles in this area this season, but its performance dramatically improved down the stretch. Over the first 12 games of the season, the Giants had 119 rushing attempts with good blocking and their ball carriers posted 742 yards on those plays. That equates to a 6.2 GBYPA mark. To put this into perspective, consider that last season the Giants posted 7.5 GBYPA and that total ranked tied for fifth-best in the league. It means their performance in the first 12 games this season simply wasn't up to par. Contrast that to New York's 577 yards on 79 good-blocking rushing plays from games 13-17 and in the Giants' three NFC playoff games. That equates to a 7.3 GBYPA mark that is nearly equal to what New York posted during last season's campaign. In other words, over the past seven games, most of which were against playoff contender-caliber competition or better, the Giants' rushing attack has been every bit as powerful as it was last season. This improvement has also been reflected in the GBYPA totals of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw's GBYPA mark was just 6.7 over the first eight games of the season. However, after he returned from a foot injury, his GBYPA mark has been 7.4. Jacobs' increase was even more notable, as he went from a 6.0 GBYPA mark in games 1-12 (including four games without Bradshaw) to posting a 7.2 mark in games 13-18 when Bradshaw was back. An across the board improvement of this caliber should give the Giants reason to think they can pound the rock as often as they want, but the Patriots' defensive performance over that same period of time also bodes quite well for New York. In the first 12 games of the season, New England allowed 811 yards on 122 good-blocking plays by their opponents, a total that equates to 6.6 GBYPA. Over the last four weeks of the regular season and in the two AFC playoff contests, the Patriots allowed 648 yards on 83 good-blocking plays, a total that equates to 7.8 GBYPA. That is a sieve-like showing that should practically invite New York to give a high volume of carries to Bradshaw and Jacobs. The importance of this is that it allows the Giants to threaten the Patriots' defense with a higher-powered rushing attack than the one New York had during its Week 9 victory at Foxborough. Bill Belichick has a long history of doing well in rematch contests, in part because he is able to figure out what his foe did against his team in the first game and find ways to stop that. With the Giants' newfound rushing prowess that task will become much harder. The Giants' running game should give them the edge they need to pull off the upset against the favored Patriots. KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."
FEB 1 10:06 AM ET EmailPrintComments 6 Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images Eli Manning could add to his Hall of Fame candidacy with another Super Bowl win. Adam Schefter answers reader questions in his mailbag twice a week. Got a query of your own? Submit it here. Q: I know I'm getting ahead of myself, Adam, but if Eli Manning wins would you consider him a Hall of Fame QB? -- Kermit (Kansas) A: He's beginning to make his case, Kermit, absolutely. And should Manning come up with another win Sunday, to go to 2-0 in the big game, his case would become even more compelling. In Friday's 10 Spot, I made the argument that Manning is on his way to becoming the best and most productive quarterback ever to play in New York and New Jersey. But he's also creeping closer and closer to Canton with each win he registers now. And one more win Sunday would fortify Manning's case and make it even more likely he would one day be joining his brother, Peyton, in the Pro Football Hall of Fame -- in what could be the first brother combination to be inducted into the Hall. Q: The New York Giants' running game has been much better during the playoffs. Do you think they'll make a concerted effort to establish the run or just attack a weak Patriots secondary? -- Larry (D.C.) A: In recent years, Larry, the Giants have transformed themselves from more of a running team into more of a passing team. In a passing league, New York clearly has adapted. I think, in a perfect world, the Giants would use the pass Sunday to get up on the Patriots, then use the run to keep Tom Brady off the field and keep the lead on the scoreboard. But the flow of the game will dictate what the Giants wind up doing. They have the capabilities of doing each, passing or running. And, with the way New York has run the ball this postseason, they're in position to be able to do it successfully Sunday against New England. Q: The Giants' D-line has been so good of late. Do you think they can get consistent pressure on Brady, or at least force Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski to stay in and block? -- Mike (Oklahoma) A: Whenever these teams have played in recent times, be it this season or in Super Bowl XLII, the Giants have gotten plenty of pressure on Brady and made him uncomfortable in the pocket. They're going to have to do it again Sunday to win this game. As complex as football can be, it boils down to whether the Giants' first-rate pass rush can pressure Brady. If it can, the Giants' chances of winning this game improve dramatically. But this also is a different Patriots offensive attack from the one the Giants thwarted in the last Super Bowl the two teams played. Back then, New England had more of a vertical passing game. Now, it uses quick strikes, which will make it more difficult for the Giants to get pressure. Brady will be looking to get rid of the ball quickly to neutralize that pass rush, whether or not New England keeps in an extra tight end. Q: With the emergence of Victor Cruz, do you think the Giants will re-sign Mario Manningham in the offseason? What other key FAs could New York lose? -- Fred (West Virginia) A: It creates a really interesting situation, Fred. Someone is going to pay Manningham some pretty decent money. Whatever someone pays him will be considerably more than the Giants pay Cruz. And that could create an odd locker room dynamic. Those types of situations happen. But the Giants at some point are going to have to pay Hakeem Nicks and Cruz, and, if they pay Manningham now, it's going to be very difficult to pay all three receivers. Now, maybe Manningham will not generate as much interest on the open market as he hopes, but that's unlikely. Someone will be interested in his services, and someone will be willing to make him a solid offer. And, if that happens, it will make it challenging for the Giants to bring him back to New York. It's just the way the game works. As much as the Giants would rather not lose him, they can't afford to pay everyone. Q: I feel like the inexperience of the Giants' linebackers has been covered up by New York's dominant pass rush. If they don't get pressure, they're in trouble. For example, who is covering Wes Welker? Or for that matter, Hernandez or Gronkowski? -- Owen (Washington) A: Again, Owen, I come back to the quick passes, the short strikes, the condensed passing game Brady has mastered with these tight ends. It is a good way to try to neutralize one of the best pass rushes in football. And people forget that the Giants are missing their best cornerback, Terrell Thomas, who suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. New York sure could use Thomas on Sunday, even though the Giants' cornerbacks have played well in his absence. And yes, New York has question marks at linebacker. But it hasn't hurt the Giants yet, likely because their pass rush has been so good.
Originally Published: January 22, 2012 What to watch in Super Bowl XLVI Patriots' front seven is peaking at the right time; key to Giants' success EmailPrintComments 77 By Gary Horton Scouts Inc. Archive David Butler II/US Presswire Tom Brady and the no-huddle offense is causing big problems for defenses in the playoffs. After breaking down film, Scouts Inc. gives an early take on what to watch in Super Bowl XLVI: 1. New England's no-huddle offense continues to work well: Although it wasn't perfect against the Baltimore Ravens, this scheme is becoming a bigger part of the New England Patriots' offense and Tom Brady runs it to perfection because he is able to make a lot of key adjustments before the snap. When the Patriots go no-huddle, the defense can't substitute freely. Versus the Ravens, who used a lot of nickel packages, Brady was able to run the ball more than expected against softer personnel. This helps to tire out a defense, especially if it's a no-huddle, and it also gives Brady and the Pats' explosive offense more plays. Brady is uncanny at making good decisions if he gets a good pre-snap read, and with the no-huddle, the defense is forced to simplify calls and coverages. This offense can use this wrinkle in the Super Bowl to really speed up the game against the New York Giants on a fast turf with their multiple personnel groupings and motion. It will be a real challenge to slow them down. 2. Patriots' defensive front seven is peaking at the right time: This still isn't a great defense, but it has shown marked improvement in two playoff wins. The back end of this unit can still struggle, but when the guys up front play at an elite level, it covers up some secondary deficiencies. The interior of the defensive line is dominating right now with Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick. Not only do they collapse the pocket with powerful bull rushes -- and we know that QBs hate inside pressure -- but they also do a nice job with inside twists and stunts that give offensive lineman fits in their blocking angles. The edge rush right now is a pleasant surprise with unexpected production from outside linebackers Mark Anderson and Rob Ninkovich, who have combined for 16.5 sacks. The linebackers are good versus the run and they are very active, but they can be exposed by good backs in the receiving game. Wilfork is the anchor of this front seven guys and right now he is almost unblockable. 3. All of the Giants' success goes through Eli Manning: Manning is playing at an elite level, making great adjustments during the game and it seems like it is impossible to stop him right now. When the run game wasn't working against the San Francisco 49ers' tough run defense, he went to a pass-heavy approach, ending up with 318 yards and two TDs on 58 attempts. What makes these numbers so impressive is that he read his progressions and made good decisions while under duress all night, spreading the ball around to eight different receivers. San Francisco sacked him six times -- and had another 12 QB hits -- and yet Manning continued to make plays. He now has an excellent three wide receiver package with tight ends and backs who can catch the ball, and they can really spread the field with creative schemes. With Manning at the helm, this offense is capable of winning a shootout with New England. If the Pats go to a lot of defensive sub packages to match up with the Giants' passing game, Manning can go to his run game against softer personnel groupings. Gary Horton, a pro scout for Scouts Inc., has been a football talent evaluator for more than 30 years. He spent 10 years in the NFL and 10 years at the college level before launching a private scouting firm, The War Room.
Originally Published: January 31, 2012 Giants should lean on running game New York's rushing attack has improved late in the season; Pats can't stop the run EmailPrintComments 16 By KC Joyner ESPN Insider Archive Nick Laham/Getty Images Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have played better down the stretch. There were many head-to-head battles that looked like they would be hotly contested in Super Bowl XVI, but the one matchup that had all the makings of a big advantage for the Cincinnati Bengals was their strong run defense (ranked ninth-best in rush yards allowed) versus a San Francisco 49ers rushing offense that ranked dead-last in the league in rush yards per attempt that season. This combination would have made most coaches put together a game plan that rarely even attempted to run the ball, much less lean on the ground game, but then-San Francisco coach Bill Walsh wasn't built like other coaches. He wasn't willing to simply concede that part of the contest without a fight. Walsh called for 12 rush plays on obvious passing downs (second or third down and 7 or more yards) and that helped the Niners pick up 63 yards on those plays. Add in the use of an unbalanced line -- and some scrambles and sneaks by Joe Montana -- and it was the core of a stat sheet that showed San Francisco running the ball 40 times on its way to a 26-21 victory. The New York Giants look to be in a similar boat to the Niners, in that their 2011 rushing numbers (last in the league in rush yards and rush yards per attempt) would strongly suggest not running the ball very often in their Super Bowl XLVI matchup against the New England Patriots. Add that to New York's passing strengths and the Patriots' weaknesses on pass defense (next-to-last in pass yards allowed, 29th in pass yards per attempt allowed) and it would seem that an aerial-heavy game plan would be the way to go for Big Blue to pull off a victory. The truth of the matter is that a closer look at the metrics of both teams provides strong indications that to win, the Giants should call for as many rushing attempts as coach Tom Coughlin and offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride desire. To illustrate this, let's first take a look at how New York's ground game did in the good-blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric. GBYPA gauges how productive a ball carrier is on plays in which he is given good blocking (the loose definition of which is when the offensive blockers do not allow the defenders to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt). This metric is of paramount importance because multiple studies I have done over the years have shown that almost every team gains between 1-2 yards per attempt on plays with poor blocking (the loose definition of which is when the defense is able to do something to disrupt the rush attempt). That means the biggest variances in rushing productivity will occur in the good-blocking area. New York had its struggles in this area this season, but its performance dramatically improved down the stretch. Over the first 12 games of the season, the Giants had 119 rushing attempts with good blocking and their ball carriers posted 742 yards on those plays. That equates to a 6.2 GBYPA mark. To put this into perspective, consider that last season the Giants posted 7.5 GBYPA and that total ranked tied for fifth-best in the league. It means their performance in the first 12 games this season simply wasn't up to par. Contrast that to New York's 577 yards on 79 good-blocking rushing plays from games 13-17 and in the Giants' three NFC playoff games. That equates to a 7.3 GBYPA mark that is nearly equal to what New York posted during last season's campaign. In other words, over the past seven games, most of which were against playoff contender-caliber competition or better, the Giants' rushing attack has been every bit as powerful as it was last season. This improvement has also been reflected in the GBYPA totals of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw's GBYPA mark was just 6.7 over the first eight games of the season. However, after he returned from a foot injury, his GBYPA mark has been 7.4. Jacobs' increase was even more notable, as he went from a 6.0 GBYPA mark in games 1-12 (including four games without Bradshaw) to posting a 7.2 mark in games 13-18 when Bradshaw was back. An across the board improvement of this caliber should give the Giants reason to think they can pound the rock as often as they want, but the Patriots' defensive performance over that same period of time also bodes quite well for New York. In the first 12 games of the season, New England allowed 811 yards on 122 good-blocking plays by their opponents, a total that equates to 6.6 GBYPA. Over the last four weeks of the regular season and in the two AFC playoff contests, the Patriots allowed 648 yards on 83 good-blocking plays, a total that equates to 7.8 GBYPA. That is a sieve-like showing that should practically invite New York to give a high volume of carries to Bradshaw and Jacobs. The importance of this is that it allows the Giants to threaten the Patriots' defense with a higher-powered rushing attack than the one New York had during its Week 9 victory at Foxborough. Bill Belichick has a long history of doing well in rematch contests, in part because he is able to figure out what his foe did against his team in the first game and find ways to stop that. With the Giants' newfound rushing prowess that task will become much harder. The Giants' running game should give them the edge they need to pull off the upset against the favored Patriots. KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."
Fuck this BS. Super Bowl week, both teams talking about the 8-8 Jets. Maybe..Just f*ng maybe they can both get 5 primetime games, Thursday games after a Sunday night game, a 3 game road trip, starting with a trip to the west coast, prior to going to Baltimore, and then New England. I hope Brady hangs a hundred on the Giants. And then gets Bledsoed in the 4th quarter, playing in a blowout. Is the travel the reason the Jets finished 8-8, of course not. But the NFL was fucking them for Money the day the schedule came out...And lets face it...both teams (as evidenced by this weeks press) like to talk.
Probably is, I take full responsibility and acknowledge that this website discourages the distribution of copyrighted material. As long as they're up, enjoy.
Well said my brother, that was actually Jacobs that said it, and I was going to make that same point. What about Hakeem Nicks's Mocking the Jets by imitating Holmes by stretching his arms like a jet after scoring a touchdown.
